Mon. Apr 22nd, 2024

Key primary numbers to know

By 37ci3 Mar6,2024

Donald Trump He continues to win Super Tuesday, the biggest primary day in the presidential race, is on the map.

NBC News exit poll offer some clues about the former president’s coalition that will allow him to fight for the GOP nomination — and also where his weak points might be in November.

Exit polls surveyed voters in Virginia, North Carolina and California, and NBC News predicted Trump would win all three states. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

The polls also looked at voters in the California Senate primary and the GOP gubernatorial primary in North Carolina, where Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is running. is predicted to win The Republican nomination.

Here are some key findings from NBC News’ exit polls so far:

Trump’s dominance with the GOP base

Trump’s popularity among GOP base voters propelled him to victory in the primary states and again on Super Tuesday. In Virginia, Trump won 79% of self-described GOP voters, who make up 60% of the electorate, while Haley won just 19% of Republicans. And Trump won a large majority (77%) of conservative voters in Virginia, who made up two-thirds of primary voters.

In North Carolina, 62% of primary voters self-identified as Republicans, and Trump won 85% of them. Trump also won 81% of self-identified conservative voters, which is 78% of the state’s GOP primary electorate.

In California, however, Trump won 76% of self-identified Republicans, who make up two-thirds of the primary electorate.

Like many GOP voters, they decided long ago that they would support it

The North Carolina and Virginia elections show a similar trend to previous GOP contests: Most voters decided who they would support before the primary turned into a two-person race between Trump and Haley. And most of those voters supported Trump.

In Virginia, nearly two-thirds (64%) of GOP primary voters said they had decided who they would support before the start of this year, meaning before primary voting began in January. Trump won these voters by a landslide, with 78% of them supporting him.

In North Carolina, 51% of GOP primary voters said they had decided who they would support before this year, with 81% backing Trump.

Some warning signs for Trump

Even as Trump widens his delegate lead, exit polls offer some potential warning signs for him in the general election, particularly among more moderate and well-educated voters.

Nearly one-third of primary voters in Virginia, North Carolina and California said no when asked whether they would vote for the GOP candidate regardless of who they were (31% in Virginia, 34% in North Carolina and 33% in California).

Similar shares of primary voters — 37% in Virginia and 31% in North Carolina — said Trump, who currently faces four impeachment charges, is unfit to be president if convicted of a crime. A smaller share of California GOP primary voters (23%) also said Trump would be unfit to serve if convicted.

Trump also struggled among college-educated voters compared to broader primary voters, a potential warning sign because well-educated voters have been key to the Democratic coalition.

Trump won 47% of voters with a college degree in Virginia, losing to Haley by 3 points. He won college-educated voters in North Carolina by 15 points, winning 56% of them. But in California, Trump won 71% of college-educated primary voters.

Early clues about the North Carolina governor’s race

Early GOP exit polls are also providing some early signals about North Carolina’s gubernatorial race. The race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to be the most competitive gubernatorial race this year.

Trump endorsed Robinson in the GOP primary and recently made offensive comments about the lieutenant governor’s “Martin Luther King on steroids.”

A North Carolina poll showed that Robinson’s victory was supported by many groups that supported Trump in the presidential election, a sign that his fate in November will be closely tied to that of the former president.

Robinson won 73% of Trump voters in the primary — one of his best showings among the caucuses. His share of Trump-voters lags behind voters who unreasonably believe that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election, in which Robinson won 75%.

Robinson’s worst performance in the primaries was among voters who described themselves as moderate or liberal. He won only 35% of those voters, according to Tuesday’s poll.

NBC News predicts Robinson will face Democrat Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, in November.

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By 37ci3

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