More than 17.5 million Latinos are expected to vote in November — a 6.5% increase over 2020 — numbers that could have a significant impact in key battleground states, according to the published forecasts National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) on Wednesday.
The projected increase reflects the growing number of eligible Hispanic voters, but it depends on efforts to get them to register.
“The bottom line here is that if we can get Latinos registered to vote, they’re going to vote,” association CEO Arturo Vargas said at a news conference Wednesday.
Dorian Caal, director of civic engagement research at NALEO, said 88% of registered voters in Latin America actually voted in 2020.
More than 1 in 10 voters (11%) are expected to be Latino in November — a 20.5% increase from 2016, according to NALEO.
States that could see an increase in Latino participation in 2024 over 2020 are California, 6.1%; Florida, 13.8%; Nevada, 15.5%; and New York, 12.4%. Participation rates in Arizona, Georgia, New Jersey and Texas are likely to be similar to 2020.
NALEO’s forecasts are based on past trends.
Hope for high activity – as in 2020
The 2020 election had a particularly high turnout for all voters.
In a 9-week tracking survey leading up to the 2020 election, NALEO found that three-quarters of Latinos said they were more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than they were in 2016.
“There are a number of circumstances that affect Latino voter turnout,” Vargas said in 2020. “Let’s not forget that the elections were held during the Covid pandemic, which has had a serious impact on the health, social and economic well-being of Latin Americans and their communities.”
Other factors driving Hispanic voter turnout in 2020 include concerns about defunding health care and racial reconciliation after the death of George Floyd.
In the 2020 tracking survey, Hispanics also noted an increase in advocacy by campaigns and other groups.
In 2020, “the turnout of all voters nationally was 92%. As for Latin Americans, 88% of those registered to vote voted,” Vargas said. “So in 2020, the gap between the non-Hispanic vote and the Hispanic vote came very close to disappearing because of the circumstances that drove so many people to vote.”
Hispanics are the largest racial and ethnic minority group in the United States. They accounted for 63.7 million people or about 19% of the total population in the 2022 census.
“So the challenge is Latino enrollment,” Caal said. “And it’s an issue that we have to take on because the number of Latinos who are eligible to vote is growing faster than the rest of the population.”