Tue. Jun 18th, 2024

What to watch for in Tuesday’s elections

By 37ci3 May21,2024

Four states hold primaries on Tuesday, while California voters will elect a replacement for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, giving Republicans a little more breathing room in the House.

With two Republicans running in a special election in California’s 20th District, the GOP is sure to add a new member to its slim House majority. Voters in Georgia, Oregon, Kentucky and Idaho will head to the polls for primaries. All the action is focused on House races that will set up matchups in key battlegrounds and decide future lawmakers in less competitive open seats.

In Kentucky, polls close at 6 and 7 p.m. The state is divided into two time zones; 7:00 PM ET at Georgia; 10 a.m. and 11 p.m. ET in Idaho; and 11:00 PM ET in California. Oregon conducts elections entirely by mail, and ballots must be returned or mailed in by 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Here are four things to watch in Tuesday’s election:

Replacing Kevin McCarthy

Republicans in Washington will get a gift from Tuesday night’s election — a boost from California, where voters voted in a special election between Assemblyman Vince Fong, who worked for McCarthy, and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux.

Both candidates are Republicans, meaning after the winner is sworn in, the GOP’s 218 members will be Democrats’ 213, and there are four vacancies. That means Republicans will be able to afford two impeachments instead of the current one with the full House.

California puts all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, on the same primary ballot, and in a special election, if no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters go to the general election.

The winner of the special election will serve out the remainder of McCarthy’s term. McCarthy resigned at the end of last year after being removed from the post of speaker. Fong and Boudreaux will also face off in the regularly scheduled general election in November.

Former President Donald Trump also endorsed Fong, who was the top vote-getter in the March primary.

Battles of Oregon

Oregon is home to three competitive Home Regions that will host games on Tuesday.

Monique DeSpain, an attorney and Air Force veteran, is the top fundraiser in the GOP field in the 4th District to challenge Democratic Rep. Val Hoyle. The leading Republican vying to defeat Democratic-Republican Andrea Salinas in the 6th District is businessman Mike Erickson, who lost to him by about 3 percentage points in 2022.

But most of the primary action is concentrated in the 5th District, where GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is running for re-election.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken the rare step of taking sides in the primary to boost state Rep. Janelle Bayum over attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. According to estimates, Chavez-DeRemer won the district by 9 points in 2020, while Joe Biden won the district by 9 points in 2022. Daily Kos Elections.

Many fringe groups entered the race with the Mainstream Democrats backing Bynum. run an ad highlights the news McLeod-Skinner mistreated her campaign staff.

McLeod-Skinner, meanwhile, received support from a group called Health Equity Now. opened ads He emphasizes his support for the “Medicare for All” law. Some Democrats have suggested the group There may be an attempt by the Republicans to interfere in the primary electionbecause the group’s ad-buying firm is typically used by GOP candidates, according to The Washington Post.

Sister move

Outside groups also include retiring Rep. They were engaged in the Democratic primary to replace Earl Blumenauer.

The primary field is crowded, with top contenders including former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, whose sister Pramila represents Washington’s 7th Congressional District and chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Jayapal has captured some high-profile endorsements, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, but he faced attacks On the air from a fringe group called Voters for Government.

314 Action, which supports candidates with STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) backgrounds, as well opened ads increase state representative Maxine Dexter, doctor. Dexter leads the fundraising field, followed by Jayapal and Gresham City Councilman Eddy Morales.

You need to watch the Republican primaries

There are a few GOP primaries worth watching in the fall, albeit in districts that aren’t expected to be competitive.

In Kentucky’s 4th District, GOP Rep. Thomas Massey faces a primary challenge from two primary challengers who are critics: attorneys Eric Deters and Michael McGinnis.

Massie made some enemies in Congress. joined the Failed attempt to unseat Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., over criticism of Ukraine aid and funding for a controversial intelligence tool. He was one of the few members of Congress who supported Trump against him (supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis). In 2020, his against the emergency pandemic relief bill He called to remove Trump from the party.

Massie is the heavy favorite, but the primary drew some significant spending from a super PAC linked to GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (who supports Massie) and the pro-Israel United Democracy Project. directly elementary, however Massini runs ads criticizing Israel’s policies (Massie is seen as a potential future candidate for statewide office).

In Idaho, GOP Rep. Mike Simpson went on the air before the primary, and he got outside help from Defending Main Street, a super PAC affiliated with the Republican Main Street Partnership. Simpson’s best-funded primary challenger, financial advisor Scott Cleveland, partially financed his campaign himself.

In Georgia, Trump’s confirmation is at stake in the 3rd District, where he is backing former White House political director Brian Jack to replace retiring GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson. Jack was the top fundraiser in the race until April, and he was also bolstered by significant outside group spending. His challengers include state Sen. Mike Dugan, former state Sen. Mike Crane and military veteran Philip Singleton.

Democratic Rep. in the 2nd District of Georgia. There are also Republican primaries for the right to face Sanford Bishop. Bishop is not expected to be vulnerable in the general election: He won re-election by 10 percentage points in 2022, while Biden won the district by a similar margin in 2020. Data from Daily Kos Elections.

The GOP didn’t spend much in the first place. The plot includes Chuck Hand, who pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor involving him Conduct during the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

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