Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the latest NBC News poll that shows a largely tight race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Plus, White House Correspondent Catherine Doyle recaps day five of Trump’s trial in New York.
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2024 is a remarkable, stubbornly stable race — for now
By Mark Murray
We have good news for President Joe Biden National NBC News survey He appears to have broken out of his political hiatus this winter: his overall approval rating is up 5 points from January, and he now trails former President Donald Trump by just 2 points among registered voters, down 5 points in three months. before.
The bad news for Biden is that his current political position is back in the fall of 2023, where his re-election prospects already look shaky.
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This underscores an important point: For all the news, developments, and drama that has unfolded over the past year, the Biden-Trump contest has been remarkably stable and competitive—any moves have come within the margin of error.
Take the two-way voting test. For nearly a year, Trump’s percentage has been stuck between 45% and 47% of registered voters. Meanwhile, Biden’s percentage fell from 42%, a high of 49% in the summer of 2023, to a low this January.
Or take the names at the top of the ticket out of the equation and record fixed congressional preferences. The poll currently has 47% favoring a GOP-controlled Congress, compared to 46% who want Democrats. The parties have been locked in this competitive position for years: Since August 2021, the GOP lead has not moved more than 2 points in either direction in an NBC News poll, while the Democratic lead has fallen outside that range once.
But a recent poll by NBC News also points to at least three potential wild cards that could upend that stable.
Trump’s trial: The NBC poll found that Trump’s multiple criminal charges and legal troubles have helped him with Republican primary voters in 2023 and early 2024. finds 50% of voters say he is being held to the same standards as anyone accused of such a crime, while 43% believe he is being unfairly targeted.
Third Party Candidates: For months, the conventional wisdom has been that the bigger the size of the third-party voice, the bigger it is It would be worse for Biden. If the third-party vote is more than 6%, that may still be the case, given Trump’s consistent 46% to 47% vote share translates into winning percentage. Still poll shows Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is hurting Trump more than Biden right now.
Attendance: The level of interest in this contest is at its lowest level in nearly 20 years, suggesting that turnout in November could be much lower than in 2020. Given that more Republicans (70%) have high interest, does this lower turnout help Trump? than Democrats do (65%)? Or does it help Biden, given that many of the voters who say they support Trump are not voting in 2020 or 2022?
These are all ways that a stable race can quickly become unstable and unpredictable.
Trump trial, day 5: Prosecutors present their case
By Catherine Doyle
More than a year after securing the indictment, New York prosecutors released their allegations for the first time on Monday. against Donald Trump in the courtroomm, they say, will weave a story to prove that the former president conspired with his “cleaner” and a tabloid publisher to cover up hush money payments.
“This case is about criminal conspiracy. Trump developed a criminal plan to spoil the 2016 presidential election,” said Matthew Colangelo, a lawyer from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office. “He then covered up this criminal scheme by repeatedly lying on his business records in New York.”
The prosecution detailed allegations of a sensationalist tabloid scheme to “catch and kill” stories that could harm Trump, a plan the DA’s office said came with Trump’s blessing and in which he was directly involved.
What else happened on the fifth day of the trial:
The “Access Hollywood” feed appears: Prosecutors argued that when the Access Hollywood tape surfaced during the 2016 campaign, it caused concern that prompted Trump and his allies to silence Stormy Daniels and stop paying her.
Judge Juan Merchan ruled that prosecutors could not play the tapes for jurors, but government attorneys could read from the transcript. Prosecutors did just that before opening statements ended. Colangelo quoted the tape to the jury, including Trump saying, “I just start kissing them … when you’re a star, they let you do anything.”
Trump faces full jury for first time: Merchan warned the full panel of 12 jurors and six alternates that they must carefully guard against outside bias when hearing evidence in the case. Even though the jurors told their employers they were among the small group of New Yorkers who would try Trump, they weren’t supposed to talk about it. Instead, they must avoid all news about the case, investigate the details or anyone involved, while they hear evidence and pass judgment.
Ruling on possible cross-examination of Trump: Trump slouched slightly in his chair as Merchan read his decision to allow prosecutors to extract facts from previous cases if the former president testified.
After hearing six separate trials involving 13 different designations filed by the prosecution, Merchan said he had “severely limited” the prosecution’s ability to obtain evidence, including the ability to exclude two prior full cases.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 👀 Isn’t it ironic: NBC News’ Peter Nicholas and Natasha Korecki detail Biden’s long political journey on the abortion issue: “The irony of Biden’s latest campaign is that one of the most painful issues he has ever faced personally—abortion—is central to his political activism. survive.” More →
- ☑️ Key (stone) voters: Jewish voters will play a crucial role in the 2024 election, especially in Pennsylvania. And their strength will be tested in the main House on Tuesday. More →
- 📃 On the ballot: The New York Times examines how RFK Jr. got on the Michigan ballot through the Natural Rights Party, securing the nomination by just two votes at the law office convention. More →
- ⚖️ Full Court Press: Judges of the Supreme Court I heard the arguments on Monday in a case about whether homeless people camping on public property should be punished. The high court also agreed to hear a case on whether the Biden administration could regulate “ghost guns.” More →
- 👋 Body language: Trump’s presence in court means his every move is watched and his body language tries to convey a docile defendant – except when he falls asleep. More →
For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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