The The latest national NBC News poll finds the third-party voice — and especially independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — cuts deeper. former President Donald Trump‘the momentum created by the other candidates is greater than that of President Joe Biden, although within the poll’s margin of error.
Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points, 46% to 44%, in a new NBC News poll.
However, when the ballot is expanded to the five named candidates, Biden has a 2-point lead: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3%, and Cornel West 2%.
That’s the big reason The poll finds a larger share of Trump voters in a head-to-head matchup, backing Kennedy on the expanded ballot. Fifteen percent of first-time Trump voters picked Kennedy in the five-way poll, compared to 7 percent of first-time Biden voters.
In addition, Republican voters view Kennedy more favorably (40% favorably, 15% unfavorably) than Democratic voters (16% favorably, 53% unfavorably).
“At this stage, [Kennedy’s] The appeal is more to Trump than to Biden voters,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican Bill McInturff.
However, this finding contradicts conventional political wisdom, as well as the results of other national polls, that a larger third-party vote would be needed. It hurts Biden more.
The results of the NBC News poll on Kennedy’s influence “are different than other polls,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster. “So there are always two possibilities: one, it’s extreme. … Or two, we’re going to see more of it, and our survey is a harbinger of things to come.”
The Biden campaign actively sought Kennedy’s support. most recently, Biden caught it An event Thursday with members of the Kennedy family he likes her above their relatives.
In general, the party has focused more on Kennedy than on past third-party candidates. mobilizing new super PACs and an arm of the Democratic National Committee focused on reducing his candidacy.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 of whom were contacted by cellphone — was conducted April 12-16, and had an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.