Sun. May 19th, 2024

Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race

By 37ci3 Apr21,2024

The share of voters who say they are highly interested in the 2024 election is at a nearly 20-year low at this point in the presidential race. The latest national NBC News pollMost have negative views of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

The poll also shows that Biden has narrowed Trump’s previous lead to just 2 points in the head-to-head race, an improvement in the margin of error over the previous poll, as the president outperforms Trump on abortion and unifying the country. and the former Republican president is ahead on efficiency and fighting inflation.

And it ranks inflation and immigration at the top of the list of the most important issues facing the country, as only a third of voters give Biden credit for an improving economy.

But what the poll highlights is how low voter turnout and the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are potentially disrupting a stable presidential race with more than six months until Election Day. While Trump has a 2-point lead over Biden head-to-head, Biden leads Trump by 2 points in a five-way poll that includes Kennedy and other third-party candidates.

“I don’t think Biden has done much as president. And if Trump is elected, I just feel like it’s going to be the same as before Biden was elected,” said poll respondent Devin Fletcher, 37, of Wayne, Michigan, a Democrat who said he still voted for Biden.

“I don’t feel like I have a candidate that I’m excited to vote for,” Fletcher added.

Another survey respondent from New Jersey, who declined to be named and voted for Biden in 2020, said he would not vote in November.

“Our candidates are terrible. I’m not interested in voting for Biden. He didn’t do anything. I will definitely not vote for Trump,” said this voter.

“Americans disagree on a lot these days, but nothing unites the country more than voters’ desire to tune into this election,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. out.”

The poll was conducted April 12-16, and it coincides with another tumultuous period in American politics, including the United States. The start of Trump’s criminal trial In New York as well new attacks and increased tension in the Middle East.

According to the results of the survey, 64% of registered voters expressed a high interest in the elections to be held in November – marking either a “9” or a 10″ on a 10-point scale.

This is lower than the NBC News poll showed in the 2008 (74%), 2012 (67%), 2016 (69%) and 2020 (77%) presidential elections at the same time.

The question refers to the 2008 election period. The lowest level of high electoral interest in the survey during the presidential period was in March 2012 – 59%. But it was quickly confirmed in the next survey.

This election cycle, the top percentage has been both low and relatively flat for months, according to the poll.

McInturff, who was polled as a Republican, said the high interest in the poll “has always been a signal for turnout in presidential elections.”

“This makes it very difficult for us to estimate turnout this far before November, but every indication is that voter turnout will be lower than in 2020,” he said.

According to the party, a current poll shows that 70% of self-identified Republicans say they are highly interested in the upcoming election, compared to 65% of Democrats.

Independents make up 48%, only 36% of voters between 18-34 years of age consider themselves highly interested in the election.

“They’re just not low interest,” McInturff said of younger voters. “They’re off the charts.”

Biden reduces Trump’s lead

The poll also has Trump leading Biden by 2 points among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44% — down from Trump’s 5-point lead in January, 47% to 42%.

The move, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, is in line with what other national polls have shown in the Trump-Biden race.

Trump’s biggest advantages are among men (53%-37%), white voters (54%-37%) and white voters without a college degree (65%-25%).

Biden’s main advantages are among black voters (71% to 13%), women (50% to 39%) and Latinos (49% to 39%).

The poll shows the two candidates are essentially tied among independents (Biden 36%, Trump 34%) and voters 18-34 (Biden 44%, Trump 43%). One of the big polling mysteries this season is whether young voters are abandoning Biden (as the NBC News poll shows over multiple polls) or whether Democrats will maintain their lead among this demographic.

When the ballot is expanded to the five named candidates, Biden leads Trump by 2 points: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, independent Robert Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.

Still, this result between Biden and Trump is within the poll’s margin of error.

Notably, the poll shows more Trump voters in a head-to-head matchup supporting Kennedy on the expanded ballot than some other polls have found.

(Read more about how Kennedy’s candidacy affects the 2024 race, according to the poll.)

The rating of the president reaches 42%

In addition, the poll shows 42% of registered voters approve of Biden’s overall job performance — up 5 points since an NBC News poll in January showed Biden at the lowest point of his presidency.

Fifty-six percent of voters disapprove of the job he is doing, down four points from January.

Biden’s gains over the past few months have come from key parts of 2020 especially among Democrats and Black voters. But he continues to have low approval ratings among Latinos (40%), young voters (37%) and independents (36%).

“The data from this poll shows that Joe Biden has started to gain some ground in rebuilding his coalition from 2020,” said Democratic pollster Horwitt. “The question is, can he build on that momentum and tap into the constituencies that still hold support?”

But GOP pollster McInturff points out that recent presidents are the only ones The ratings of the re-election losers were higher than those of Biden at this point in the election cycle: George HW Bush (43%) and Donald Trump (46%).

“President Biden has uncertainty in the presidency and is in a difficult position with regard to his re-election,” McInturff said.

On the issues, 39% of voters say they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (up from 36% in January); 28% approve of his handling of border security and immigration; and only 27% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war (up from 29% in January).

Voters gave Biden their highest rating Regarding student loan debt, 44% approve of his handling of the issue, while 51% disapprove.

Biden leads on abortion and the union; Trump leads in terms of inflation and competence

The NBC News poll asked voters to determine which candidate was better on several different topics and attributes.

Biden has a 15-point lead over Trump on abortion and the president’s ability to bring the country together by 9 points — though that’s down from Biden’s 24-point lead on the issue. September 2020 NBC News poll.

And Trump is the leader in having the ability to cope with a crisis (4 points), a strong record of achievements (7 points), competent and effective (11 points), and having the necessary mental and physical strength. the president will be on health care (19 points) and the fight against inflation and the living wage (22 points).

Inflation, immigration are the main problems of 2024

Inflation and the cost of living topped the list of issues in the survey, with 23% of voters saying it was the most important issue facing the country.

It is another main issue that concerns the voters immigration and border situation (22%) — next threats to democracy (16%), jobs and the economy (11%), abortion (6%) and health (6%).

Additionally, 63% of voters say their household income falls short of the cost of living — essentially unchanged from what the survey found in 2022 and 2023.

53% of voters say the nation’s economy is not improving, 33% say it is improving and Biden deserves some credit for it, and 8% who agree the economy is improving do not give the president credit for it.

“If I look at the time when all three of my children were at home – now we only have one child left at home and we spend more than when we were a family of five,” she said. poll respondent Art Fales, 45, of Florida, says he is likely to vote for Trump.

But on a separate question – is there an issue so important that you would vote for or against a candidate based on that alone? — The top question answers are about protecting democracy and constitutional rights (28%), immigration and border security (20%) and abortion (19%).

Indeed, 30% of Democrats, 29% of young voters and 27% of women say they are single-issue voters on abortion.

“I have a right to what I do with my body,” said poll respondent Amanda Willis, 28, of Louisiana, who said she voted for Biden. “And I don’t believe other people have the ability to determine that.”

Other survey results

  • As Trump’s first criminal trial continues, 50% of voters say they are held to the same standards as others when it comes to the former president’s numerous legal troubles. This compares to 43% who believe he has been unfairly targeted in these trials.
  • 52% of voters have a negative opinion about Biden, and 53% have the same opinion about Trump.
  • Democrats and Republicans prefer congress, with 47% of voters favoring Republican control of Congress and 46% wanting Democrats in charge. In January, the Republicans had a 4-point difference on this question.

The NBC News poll was conducted April 12-16 among 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 of whom were contacted by cellphone — and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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By 37ci3

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