Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, senior politics editor Scott Bland and national political reporter Ben Kamisar comment on a major new poll of young voters. Moreover, Donald Trump’s silent money trial is at a critical juncture.
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How young people see the encounter between two senior citizens
By Scott Bland and Ben Kamisar
The Democratic Party of the 21st century relies on big differences with young voters to win elections. And a major new data set is shedding light on what’s going on with a group that angered President Joe Biden but wasn’t quite ready to embrace former President Donald Trump.
If you take something new Harvard Youth Survey, is that young people are divided by the same dividing lines that define the general electorate like everyone else, namely race and gender (and political participation). Let’s take a look at a survey that provides one of the most comprehensive views of young voters.
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The poll shows a lead for Biden, but not the same lead as in 2020. Several public polls this election cycle, including NBC News, have shown Trump essentially erasing Biden’s lead among young voters. That’s not what the Harvard poll shows: Biden leads among registered voters 18-29 by 13 points, 50%-37%, and among likely voters by a wider 19 points (56%-37%). Still, not at the 60-30% that the Harvard poll showed for Biden. What is compatible with 2020? exit poll found in the fall.
The busier he is, the closer he is to Biden. Not only did Biden’s margin shrink among the under-30 crowd, which shifted from likely to registered voters, the results show it narrowed even more among all respondents. This trend reflects broader polling and election data this year, which shows that Biden is doing better with regular voters and more poll respondents than the irregular and less engaged. This shows why the 2024 runoff election may be more volatile than it seems at first glance, as the outcome of a close race may hinge on very unattractive people.
Notice the gaps. Young women, young people of color, and young people with college degrees are more likely to support Biden over Trump than their male, white, and college-educated counterparts. It’s a good reminder to treat this (or any!) voting cohort not as a single block to be won or lost, but as a complex and changing group affected by many different factors.
This is just a taste of the data. See full results here – and keep a close eye on this group this year.
Trump’s historic silence trial features 12 jurors, plus one alternate
By Adam Reiss and Dareh Gregorian
A full 12-member jury was selected on Thursday Trump’s silence trial After both sides questioned nearly 200 potential jurors in New York about whether they could be fair and impartial when it came to the polarizing president and the criminal charges against him.
“We have a jury,” Judge Juan Merchan said after the 12th juror was selected. One alternative has been selected and five more must be selected. “I hope we finish tomorrow,” the judge said before swearing in the jury.
If that happens, opening statements in the former president’s first criminal trial could begin as early as Monday.
The panel consists of seven men and five women. New additions sworn in Thursday include a retired wealth manager, a speech therapist, a product development manager and a physical therapist. A lawyer, a salesman, a teacher and a software engineer were among those sworn in on Tuesday.
The sitting of the jury came after a difficult start to the day. Two of the seven jurors already sworn in were dismissed in the morning.
The first was dismissed after friends, colleagues and family members asked him if he was a juror in the case, and he told the judge he was worried he could no longer be impartial. The second was released after being brought in for further questioning due to prosecutors’ concerns that one of the answers he gave during questioning was incorrect.
Trump after the court was dismissed for the day complained to journalists he was supposed to be in states like Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina to campaign, but instead “I’ve been here all day” for an “unfair trial.”
Read more about the third day of Trump’s trial here →
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 👪 Family drama: More than a dozen members of the Kennedy family, including some of Robert Kennedy Jr.’s sisters, are backing Biden for president in a show of strength against an independent candidate. More →
- 💲 Veep with Deep Pockets: Nicole Shanahan cut RFK a $2 million check. Jr.’s campaign the day after he announced his candidacy. More →
- 💰 Cash Dash: Democratic candidates are outpacing Republicans in nearly every one of the most competitive seats in the House race, according to new fundraising reports. More →
- 📱 Tik tok for TikTok?: Legislation that could ban TikTok in the US if it doesn’t cut ties with its Chinese parent company is quickly on track to reach Biden’s desk and be signed into law. More →
- 🇺🇦 About the face: The Wall Street Journal examines how Speaker Mike Johnson is now working to pass Ukraine aid after the House voted against it before taking the top job. More →
- 🚫 Sanction: The Biden administration announced new sanctions against Iran after the country’s latest attack on Israel. More →
- ☑️ A person’s mission: Pennsylvania’s commissioner is getting creative with efforts to encourage more people to vote, including creating a voter hall of fame. More →
For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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