Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, senior national political correspondent Jonathan Allen takes a look at the first day of Donald Trump’s silent money trial, inside and outside the courtroom. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray explains how the public views Trump’s legal troubles.
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Trump’s trial: a “freak show” on the outside and solemn on the inside
By Jonathan Allen
Inside the courthouse between Tribeca and Chinatown on Monday morning, former President Donald Trump’s attorneys argued with the district attorney’s office for a trial. keep quiet money business For the first time in American history, he could send a former commander-in-chief to prison.
Judge Juan Merchan told lawyers he was a little annoyed by the “minutia”. With A pool of 500 potential jurors he wanted to start the process of choosing 12 while waiting.
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The judge also delivered “Parker warnings” to Trump, including that he could be arrested for contempt if he is absent at any point in court. Trump, betraying little emotion, said he understood.
Outside, across the street in a sun-drenched park, privacy prevailed over pedantry.
Many of the pro-Trump demonstrators — some dressed in costumes, others carrying signs, one temporarily lowering the top of a dinosaur-themed one-piece and writhing on the floor in performative ecstasy — supported the Republican candidate.
The presence of high-profile gawkers underscored the carnival-like nature of the gathering: The Daily Show’s Jordan Klepper, former Republican gubernatorial candidate Andrew Giuliani and filmmaker Alexandra Pelosi, daughter of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.
“I never miss a freak show,” said the younger Pelosi, a longtime resident of nearby Greenwich Village.
The unlikely tandem of Klepper and Giuliani has provided a clear window into a number of truths about this trial: The charges are at once the least consequential of the expected pile-up against Trump, and as central to democracy as the question of whether or not special treatment is a target or a target. . protection — can be prevented in the presence of such a powerful figure.
The former president sometimes closed his eyes during lengthy proceedings, suggesting disinterest or fatigue.
Most of the jurors sat quietly and expressionless. Merchan emphasized his desire to protect their identities from the public, going so far as to warn rival rights groups not to repeat their lists of names. More than half of them raised their hands when they said they could not be impartial in this court.
“I couldn’t do it,” one of the dismissed jurors was heard saying in the hallway.
It’s not easy to find 12 adults who don’t have any particular feelings about Donald J. Trump and aren’t willing to take a multi-week test. This process will continue in Merchan’s court. For the rest of the world, the “freak show” is on the sidelines.
Where public opinion on Trump’s trial stands — for now
Analysis by Mark Murray
It is not clear how Criminal The hush money accusations against Trump will eventually take their toll, but the latest national poll gives us a good idea of where voters stand on the issue.
At least for now.
The vast majority say that the accusations against Trump are serious: 64% of voters said the allegations that Trump falsified business records related to hush money payments to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election were very or somewhat serious. April Reuters/Ipsos poll.
However, this is more likely than those who believe the charges are serious in other criminal cases, such as attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election (74%), pressuring Georgian public officials to overturn the 2020 election (72%), and illegally overturning the election. less than the share of voters. confidential documents (69%).
Recently New York Times/Siena College survey also 58% of registered voters found the hush money charges to be “very” or “somewhat” serious, including 30% of self-identified Republicans.
Opinions about Trump’s guilt are divided along party lines: But the same NYT/Siena poll found a smaller share (46%) of voters said Trump should be found guilty of the cover-up, while 36% said he was innocent; another 18% said they didn’t know or refused to answer.
And see party-wise results:
- Democrats: 84% guilty, 6% innocent, 10% don’t know
- Republicans: 13% guilty, 71% not guilty, 16% don’t know
- Independents: 40% guilty, 35% innocent, 25% don’t know
- Notice how these independents are in the middle, they don’t have a significant number of reviews.
If Trump is convicted, the general election ballot changes slightly: Finally, January 2024 national NBC News poll polling pollsters for their views showed little change in the horse race between Trump and President Joe Biden *if* Trump is ultimately convicted of a crime.
In the primary test, Trump led Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47% to 42%, which was within the poll’s margin of error.
But when voters were asked — in the poll’s final question — about their ballot choice if Trump were convicted of a crime, Biden led Trump by 2 points, 45% to 43%.
This is a 7 point swing.
However, a caveat to this assumption: It assumes that the electorate will see the conviction as fair and proper. But as we all know, Trump has spent months trying to dismiss the accusation as unfair and politically motivated.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🌵Arizona abortion result: Republican lawmakers in Arizona are considering alternative ballot measures to compete with a proposed constitutional amendment that would expand abortion rights in the state. PowerPoint presentation Retrieved by NBC News. More →
- 🛑 Removing no tags: A “centrist civil war” over No Labels’ potential presidential bid describes “betrayal, a double agent, a secret team of political operatives, some unlikely allies, and a decisive victory for one side leaving the other in a seething and miserable situation.” NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald. More →
- 🐘 Veepstakes: The New York Times reports Trump was interested in the fundraising ability of his potential running mates. One of those contenders, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, is focused on his ability to connect with black voters. More →
- 🐻 Golden Government: The Atlantic profiles Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom as he casts him as a “super-surrogate” for Biden. More →
- ⚖️ Supreme Court drama: The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on Tuesday in a case that could have far-reaching consequences for those accused of their actions during the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots. More →
- ⚖️ High court drama, sequel: A divided Supreme Court on Monday allowed Idaho to enforce a law that would have banned gender-affirming health care for transgender teens. More →
- 👋 Newhouse, who was it? Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6, is once again at the center of the former president’s ire. Trump endorsed a GOP challenger to Newhouse over the weekend. More →
For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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