A potential tipping point for Biden on Israel: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, senior foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell examines whether this week marks a turning point for President Joe Biden’s approach to Israel. Plus, senior national political reporter Jonathan Allen looks ahead to Donald Trump’s potential statement on abortion next week.

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Is this a turning point for Biden’s Israel policy?

By Andrea Mitchell

He took his death seven World Center Kitchen staff To direct President Joe Biden’s policy toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza?

So far, senior administration officials say, Biden has been one of the last standouts on the national security team to take a tougher line as the humanitarian disaster deepens in Gaza, though his reluctance to do so has seemed difficult for allied world leaders and leaders. even some advisers.

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of the President Call Netanyahu Thursday and a virtual meeting of Israel’s advisers on its plan to occupy Rafah appears to be a turning point. Acting Secretary of State Anthony Blinken went on camera shortly after and broke precedent by laying out specific steps Biden wanted Israel to take, including opening the critical Erez land crossing to northern Gaza and the port of Ashdod for aid deliveries.

Blinken has pressed for both during multiple visits to Israel, saying on Friday that “US policy on Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s urgency in these steps.”

The questions now will be whether the president is willing to impose conditions on military aid to his longtime ally. Several sources tell NBC News that options are being considered. The first trigger point could be Israel’s failure to fulfill its commitment to the Biden administration to open an additional land crossing to Gaza. What could happen next is if Israel decides to ignore Biden’s protests and launch a larger-scale invasion of Rafah.

Also, May 8 is approaching, when the Biden administration will have to assess to Congress whether all countries, including Israel, use US weapons in accordance with international and US human rights laws. In February, Biden also ordered the State Department to assess whether Israel’s guarantees are valid and report back to Congress.

It’s pressure It is gaining strength in Congress to do exactly that — put conditions on military aid to Israel, such as the 2,000-pound bombs already in the pipeline, such as the one Israel used against the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on October 31. Although Hamas denied this, it targeted a Hamas terrorist in a tunnel under the camp. Images of the destroyed camp outraged much of Europe and the Middle East, fueling anger at Netanyahu’s government just three weeks after the Hamas massacre.

It is another turning point in the war that Hamas ignited six months ago this weekend.

Trump says he will soon take a position on abortion. History and politics say don’t bet on it.

By Jonathan Allen

Trump NBC reporter Gabe Gutierrez informed about this On Tuesday, he will announce his position on abortion next week. If it does, it will likely raise more questions and political problems than it solves.

Trump was able to win the Republican nomination this year without clarifying his position in the primaries, completely sidestepping the issue that has given the GOP more deception and election losses since he left the White House.

Sometimes Trump declares that he killed those who protect against abortion. In others, he insists on Republicans they hurt themselves by imposing restrictions on the procedure. Over a wider period, he announced himself “multiple choice” and said this women should be punished for having an abortion.

In other words, he has been given little reason to think that anyone has any convictions on the matter. This is ironic because the Supreme Court he provided with his appointees was Roe v. It repealed Wade and paved the way for abortion bans across the country — delivering on the No. 1 target for social conservatives and creating a backlash that was either unwanted or dangerous every time. forces pregnancy.

But Florida couldn’t have done it without Trump’s Supreme Court picks enforce the ban after six weeks of pregnancy — the period when many women do not know they are pregnant yet.

Whatever Trump says in the coming days — if he actually says anything of substance — there’s little reason to think he’ll clarify a specific position. It is hard to see how he will win an election from trying to mediate between warring factions of his own party. Moreover, he cannot expect such a position to soften the objections of critics.

Given his role in ousting Roe, Democrats will impose the most restrictive policies on him already.

In recent months, he has voiced his opinion that Trump is consensus building Exceptions include a national ban of 15 or 16 weeks, rape, consanguinity or the mother’s life being in danger. But his aides hint that he may choose to say that’s what the decision should be given to voters in the states, giving him more time not to express politics. It would have the benefit of being consistent with the court’s Dobbs decision — a decision that triggered a flood of abortion restrictions and a political threat to the GOP.

It would also allow him to avoid passing a national abortion ban as steep a climb as Capitol Hill. To enact the ban, he would need Republicans to not only gain control of both houses of Congress, but to do so by a larger margin than the GOP’s brightest projections. Enacting the ban could make it harder for Republicans to win seats in the House and Senate, where they would need to pass it into law. Even if he won the presidency and the GOP won both houses and Republicans could agree on a position, a 15- or 16-week ban would not survive a Democratic filibuster in the Senate.

With all of this in mind, it would be surprising if Trump took any firm stance on abortion before the November election.

For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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