Rising crime rates, out-of-control Democratic cities and “immigrant crime.”
Former president Donald Trump He regularly refers to all three at campaign rallies, news releases, and on Truth Social, and often the President Joe Biden and the democrats are to blame.
But Trump’s picture of crime is in stark contrast to years of police and government data, both locally and nationally.
FBI statistics Released this year, it suggested there was a sharp drop in the crime rate across the country last year. It’s a similar story in big cities, with violent crime falling year over year Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C.C.
NBC News analyzed crime data to assess Trump’s claims on the subject.
Crime rates in the United States and major cities
Trump’s campaign often cites crime levels, regularly pointing the finger at Biden.
“Violent crime has increased in nearly every city in America under Joe Biden’s watch,” the campaign said. news release published on its website this month.
Trump himself made similar statements.
“Four years ago, I told you that if crooked Joe Biden came to the White House, our borders would be dismantled, our middle class would be destroyed, and our communities would be engulfed in blood, chaos and violent crime,” Trump said. Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference last month. “We were right about everything”
Government figures do not support this feature.
Reported violent crimes decreased by 6% across the board when comparing From the last three months of 2022 to the same period of 2023This was reported by the FBI.
The reported declines were particularly pronounced in major cities that Trump often attacks, many of which have Democratic mayors. According to the FBI, cities with a population of 1 million or more saw an 11% drop in violent crime, 20% in murder, 16% in rape and 11% in felony crime.
Reached for comment, the Trump campaign pointed to others reports shows that certain types of crime are increasing in certain cities.
Nationally, violent crime rates in 2022, the most recent full year reported comprehensive FBI information, accounted for 380.7 crimes per 100,000 people. That’s down from the overall violent crime rate from 2020 — Trump’s last year in office — at 398.5.
The lowest violent crime rate reported during Trump’s presidency was in 2019, when the metric was 380.8 — on par with the 2022 rate.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said in October, just before the election, that it would release more extensive crime data for 2023.
Reached for comment, the Trump campaign said some violent crime categories, such as car theft, rose during the Biden administration, according to FBI figures.
“Joe Biden is trying to convince Americans not to believe their eyes,” campaign press secretary Caroline Leavitt said.
New York crime
Who was Trump? I was born and raised New York but now living in Florida, he often rails against what he describes as the rising crime rate in his former hometown.
These references to escalating violence increased as he faced criminal charges In New York, he was accused of falsifying business records related to hush money payments to adult movie star Stormi Daniels. Trump, who is not guilty in this case, should also write a $175 million bond to prevent state Attorney General Letitia James from collecting a judgment in a New York civil fraud case.
“I did nothing wrong and New York should never be put through this again,” Trump wrote in all caps about the civil trial on Truth Social. “Businesses are fleeing, violent crime is flourishing, and it’s imperative that this is dealt with comprehensively as soon as possible.”
In a separate post, he claimed that “murders and violent crimes have hit unimaginable records” in the city.
However, major crimes in New York City are down 2.3% this year, according to police department data comparing annual numbers to the same period in 2023.
These numbers of last year were also much lower than the highest indicators of the last decades. In 1990, there were more than 527,000 major crimes, compared to more than 126,000 last year. New Yorc police information — Over 75% reduction.
In 2001, more than 162,000 major crimes were reported in New York City. In the next two decades, this number decreased by more than 20%.
At the same time, New York City data Although violent crimes such as murder and rape fell last year compared to previous years, the number of major crimes has increased in the past few years.
“Migrant crime”
Trump’s dehumanizing language about migrants has since become a staple of his political speeches It was first sought for the office in 2015.
“The border crisis has created a tragic increase in violent crimes against innocent American citizens by some of the world’s most violent criminals,” his campaign said in a news release this month.
Trump has also focused his energy on high-profile cases, such as the death of Laken Riley, who was killed while running in Georgia. The suspect is a Venezuelan citizen who entered the United States illegally in 2022.
“Every day, innocent citizens are killed, stabbed, shot, raped and murdered because of Biden’s migrant crime,” Trump said in a video he sent to the campaign. X account last week.
However, there is no evidence A wave of crimes committed by migrants in the United States, according to the local police department.
Crime reports have dropped in several major cities targeted by Texas’ Operation Lone Star, a program backed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott that ferries or buses migrants from the state to Democratic-controlled US cities.
In several of those cities – New York, Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia – the number of reported crimes has decreased year-to-date compared to the same period last year.