Thu. Apr 25th, 2024

Why the third-party role in 2024 is so unpredictable: From the Politics Desk

By 37ci3 Mar9,2024

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, political embed Katherine Koretsky and senior politics reporter Alex Seitz-Wald, who are embroiled in a third-party battle to make their mark in 2024, report on No Labels’ latest announcement and what the group’s plans for 2024 hold. . Plus, Kristen Welker examines the State of the Union and what’s next for President Joe Biden after the Big Speech.

The third party guessing game continues

Katherine Koretsky, Alex Seitz-Wald, and Scott Bland

No Labels held an 800-person virtual caucus Friday where members voted to move forward with the process of forming a presidential ticket to run in the 2024 election.

There’s just one problem: The group doesn’t yet have a real candidate — and nothing on Friday made it clear whether there ever will be.

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The outsider group’s long-running deal with the 2024 presidential race shows why, even with so much set in stone about the election, it’s still hard to tell how important the many third-party candidates and groups eyeing the race really are. november

And it’s not just because third-party candidates often lose support in the polls as election day approaches, although that’s a real trend. There are two major logistical hurdles that can complicate things.

Access to the state ballot: Getting on the ballot as an independent is a time-consuming and costly endeavor. That’s why Robert F. Kennedy is relying on a super PAC to help him collect signatures to put him on state ballots, even as he faces a minor campaign finance complaint. claims that it is not properly coordinated With super PAC American Values ​​2024 in this effort.

No Labels has well-funded efforts to get on the ballot in all 50 states and is currently in 16, including Arizona and Nevada.

Candidate Selection: Usually, a third-party candidate comes first and a movement develops around them, to the extent that a movement is born. No Labels does things the other way around by setting up a machine to get the ballot before finding a candidate. The organization said in a statement on Friday that it would “expedite” contact with candidates and announce the process of how candidates will be selected on March 14.

Without knowing the answers to these two big questions – who are the candidates and where will they be on the ballot? — there’s no telling how third-party voting will affect the 2024 race. It may be some time before we know the final answers on both fronts.

Read more here →

Biden answered key questions about the State of the Union. Here’s what’s next.

Analysis by Kristen Welker

President Joe Biden fired back at mainstream Democrats in his State of the Union address. He worked to dispel concerns about his age. He contrasted former President Donald Trump by referring to “my predecessor” 13 times.

As one Democratic strategist described the speech to me: “The agenda is focused on the Democratic audience, the patriotic swing audience, and good delivery across the country.”

How these latter two groups respond to Biden’s energy, message and contrasts with Trump may be the most important question of the general election. This includes the middle of the country, fed up with the country’s polarized politics and disillusioned with the prospect of a two-man general election in the late 70s and early 80s, fed up with the direction of the nation.

The middle class of voters, including those who voted for Nikki Haley in the GOP primary, could very well decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential election with about 240 days to go — either by voting for Biden or Trump, with one-third of the party’s nominee. or sitting out of the election altogether.

Remember, it was Biden’s power in the middle that helped propel him to the White House in 2020, when he won independents by 13 points and moderates by 30 points. NBC News exit poll.

Now? In the latest NBC News poll, Biden leads Trump by just 13 points among moderates and 6 points behind independents — well below 2020.

The good news for Biden is that Thursday’s State of the Union address clearly appealed to Democrats, taking on Trump and allaying concerns about his age (at least for now).

Now we’ll have to see how long the speech lasts (remember, Biden gave an equally strong and combative State of the Union in early 2023) — and how it plays with average and top Haley voters.

🗞️ The best stories of the day

  • 🎵This is his party and he will decide if he wants to: Ronna McDaniel’s tenure at the Republican National Committee has ended, with the former president’s picks — including Michael Whatley as chair and Lara Trump’s running mate — taking over the RNC. More →
  • 👷Work, vacancies: The US economy added another 275,000 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. More →
  • 📱 Maybe call me? The Washington Post examines how Biden relied on the advice of his longtime allies on Capitol Hill before making his final decision. More →
  • ⚖️IVF is not discussed: Iowa House Republicans have passed a personhood bill that would make IVF or any other method that causes the death of an “unborn person” a felony. More →
  • 🟡Controversial: Vice President Harris would not commit when asked if he or Biden would participate in the general election debates. More →
  • 🗽He came back: Recently ousted congressman — and even more recent State of the Union guest — George Santos announced his primary challenge Wednesday against New York Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. More →

For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email

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