This is becoming a familiar scene. Nikki Haley loses a key state for the former president Donald Trumpon the night of the loss, he takes the stage and vows to continue the fight, acting like a fist.
But after Saturday’s stumble in his home state of South Carolina — which has now put him out of the early state primaries — campaign analysts and pollsters say the longer he stays in the race, the more he risks damaging his party. the future – and the brand.
It is increasing associated with the Democrats. His support for Republicans is waning. And his attacks on Trump have drawn rebuke from GOP voters in the former president’s current party.
Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett said Haley’s end game is increasingly unclear to political observers.
“He wants to go out the way he wants, I think it’s on fire,” Bartlett said.
Haley’s appeal to moderates, independents and Democrats “absolutely damned him in South Carolina,” he said. “He’s going to be damned with the Super Tuesday states and there’s no way at the convention, Republicans are going to elect a Republican who’s loved by Democrats as an alternative.”
South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick said he sees Haley’s gains only diminishing if she loses to Trump by double digits in South Carolina, as she will wear the jacket for delaying the party’s general election efforts.
“I think you have to do a lot of soul searching at this point, there’s no doubt about it,” McKissick said. “You get to a certain point where if you go too far, you start doing yourself more political harm than good.”
One South Carolina voter, Carol Cooper, said she was a fan of Haley when she was governor, but her negative campaign against Trump turned her off.
“Then I supported him. But now I don’t support him because he attacked President Donald Trump,” Cooper said. “I don’t like him stabbing Trump in the back.”
As the fight drags on, Haley comes across more and more unsavory theories, including hers in the first place receives support from Democrats who passed in the primaries of their states.
This week, he faced questions about whether he would join the so-called unity ticket With the Democratic primary candidate, Rep. Dean Phillips, saying he would drop something he gave to Fox News on Friday. one interview On NBC News’ “Meet the Press” Saturday, California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom hailed Haley as a strong Democratic surrogate.
“I don’t know why the Democrats want him out of the race,” Newsom said. “She is one of our best surrogates. I mean, it reliably and effectively defines the opposition to Trump.”
Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist and Haley’s former deputy chief of staff when he was governor of South Carolina, said the longer she drags out, the less time Republicans need to focus on the general election fight. Staying, he said, “doesn’t come without the risk of potentially tarnishing his political brand among people he might want to sue if he wants to run in the future.”
At the same time, he added that by 2028, all of this can be forgotten.
“Voters, activists and donors, to say nothing of journalists, have shorter attention spans and shorter memories than ever before,” he said. “Even if there is some measure of risk in alienating one or all of these groups by extending the competition, the long-term effect is likely to be negligible.”
After Saturday evening South Carolina resultsHaley touched on her political prospects beyond the 2024 race.
“It was never about me or my political future,” Haley said. “We have to defeat Joe Biden in November. I don’t believe Donald Trump can beat Joe Biden. Trump alienates people almost every day.”
Haley said she was blindsided by Saturday’s results, which showed Trump leading her about 60% to 40%.
“I’m an accountant: I know 40% isn’t 50%, but I also know 40% isn’t a small group,” Haley said. “There are a lot of people in the Republican primaries who say they want an alternative. I said earlier this week that I would continue to run for president regardless of what happens in South Carolina. I am a woman who keeps my word.”
But as he heads to Michigan State on Sunday — as he says he will — he’s battling a sharp drop in support among his ranks. Republican voters. In the state where he once served as governor, an NBC News poll on Saturday found that 72 percent of Republicans supported Trump and 28 percent supported Haley. Haley claimed 59% of independents, and Trump claimed 40% of independents — but they only made up 21% of the electorate.
In November, 43% of GOP primary voters had a favorable view of Haley, while 17% had an unfavorable view of her, according to an NBC News poll. But in January national NBC News poll34% of Republican primary voters viewed Haley favorably, compared to 36% who viewed her unfavorably.
However, the money keeps rolling in. The campaign has 15 to 20 fundraising events planned over the next month “all over the country,” said Bill Strong, a donor and member of Haley’s campaign executive committee. Earlier in the week, Haley made a virtual appearance at a fundraiser in Florida and raised “a significant six figures,” Strong said.
“I don’t understand why the media is in such a rush when 90 percent of the representatives are in the game,” Strong said. He dismissed the idea that Haley risked damaging her brand by staying in the race, saying the longer she stays in the race, the more people will get behind her.
“Trump is the only person Biden can beat. “Democrats are scared to death that he might win,” he said.
While campaigning in defense of his father in South Carolina this week, Donald Trump Jr. claimed that Haley was only out to benefit himself, hoping to make money after dropping out of the race.
“He’s trying to hurt Trump because it will benefit him financially. “He’s going to be a spokesperson for CNN, conservative opinion at CNN, he’s going to be the only Republican to sit on the board of some of these companies.” “That’s what he’s shooting at. It’s purely about the upcoming payday and there is literally no other excuse for it. And we all know that, if we’re being intellectually honest.”
But at a Georgetown rally Thursday, Haley insisted that this is the future of the Republican Party.
“I’m not doing it for me. At first they wanted to say that I wanted to be vice president. I think that’s not what I’m trying to do, I almost proved it,” he said. “Then they were talking about my political future. I don’t care about the political future. If I did, I would be out by now.”
One voter, Democrat Michael Santos, said he voted for Haley and recognized her determination to stay in the race against the odds.
“It makes Donald Trump angry,” he said. “So it’s like the most fun thing ever.”