Fri. Feb 23rd, 2024

How a Trump conviction changes the 2024 race in our latest poll

By 37ci3 Feb 5, 2024

The the most recent national NBC News poll Former President Donald Trump leads incumbent Joe Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47% to 42%, in a hypothetical general election matchup.

But when the poll’s final question asked voters what their ballot choice would be if Trump were convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly edged Trump, 45% to 43%.

Some of the clearest shifts are among voters who strongly support Biden in 2020, but who he’s currently struggling with as president — young voters, Latinos and independents.

In the primary ballot, Biden and Trump are tied 42% to 42% among voters aged 18-34. But when these voters are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is convicted, they give Biden a 15-point margin, 47% to 32%. .

Similarly, in the first poll asking a hypothetical question about Trump’s convictions, Latinos are Trump 42%, Biden 41% – Biden 45%, Trump 35% in the second poll.

And independents go from a 19-point advantage for Trump in the first poll to a smaller, 8-point advantage for Trump in the second poll.

This is a dramatic shift, especially among independents. But it’s not always clear how a hypothetical will play out in real life.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the GOP half of the bipartisan group of pollsters that conducted the NBC News poll, warns that a fraction of swing voters on those two ballots — 55 out of 1,000 interviewed in total — have very negative views of Biden, and they favor the Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points. they give

As a result, McInturff says, he doubts those voters would actually stick with Biden even if Trump were convicted of a felony.

The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 26-30 among 1,000 registered voters — 867 of whom were contacted by cellphone — and had an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

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By 37ci3

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