Mon. May 20th, 2024

How a Trump conviction changes the 2024 race in our latest poll

By 37ci3 Feb5,2024

The the most recent national NBC News poll Former President Donald Trump leads incumbent Joe Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47% to 42%, in a hypothetical general election matchup.

But when the poll’s final question asked voters what their ballot choice would be if Trump were convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly edged Trump, 45% to 43%.

Some of the clearest shifts are among voters who strongly support Biden in 2020, but who he’s currently struggling with as president — young voters, Latinos and independents.

In the primary ballot, Biden and Trump are tied 42% to 42% among voters aged 18-34. But when these voters are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is convicted, they give Biden a 15-point margin, 47% to 32%. .

Similarly, in the first poll asking a hypothetical question about Trump’s convictions, Latinos are Trump 42%, Biden 41% – Biden 45%, Trump 35% in the second poll.

And independents go from a 19-point advantage for Trump in the first poll to a smaller, 8-point advantage for Trump in the second poll.

This is a dramatic shift, especially among independents. But it’s not always clear how a hypothetical will play out in real life.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the GOP half of the bipartisan group of pollsters that conducted the NBC News poll, warns that a fraction of swing voters on those two ballots — 55 out of 1,000 interviewed in total — have very negative views of Biden, and they favor the Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points. they give

As a result, McInturff says, he doubts those voters would actually stick with Biden even if Trump were convicted of a felony.

The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 26-30 among 1,000 registered voters — 867 of whom were contacted by cellphone — and had an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

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By 37ci3

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