Following the Iowa caucuses, three high-quality polls in New Hampshire tell a consistent story about the battle in the state’s GOP presidential primary.
It’s just not that all three of them—two tracking inquiries via the Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk, as well as the St. Another poll from Anselm College has former President Donald Trump leading former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley by double digits, or all of them with Trump at 50% or higher.
Here’s why Trump has this lead: In three polls, Haley leads independents by 10 to 20 points. Meanwhile, Trump beating registered Republicans by nearly 40 points.
That spread gave Trump what he needed to maintain the lead, even though New Hampshire was a more favorable operating area for Haley than Iowa. In New Hampshire, registered Republicans and independent (undeclared) voters are split almost 50-50 in the state’s likely electorate. That compares to a much heavier Republican split among voters in Iowa — 82% Republican, 18% other, according to an entry poll for that contest.
Notably, each of these polls was conducted after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the Republican presidential race, meaning Haley faced less competition from independent candidates. Before his exit, Christie had a significant share of independent support in the polls.
Take the latest tracking Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk pollwhich has Trump ahead of Haley by 17 points, 52% to 35%.
Among likely primary voters, undeclared/independent registered voters — 44% of voters polled — Haley leads Trump by 11 points, 49% to 38%.
But among likely registered Republican primary voters — 55% of voters — Trump leads Haley by 37 points, 62% to 25%.
The previous wave of interviews from the same follow-up survey showed a similar trend.
The same trend exists in Azerbaijan St. Anselm’s Inquirywhich has Trump leading Haley by 14 points overall, 52% to 38%.
Among undeclared voters — 47% of likely voters in the poll — Haley leads by 15 points, 52% to 37%.
But among registered Republicans – 53% of voters – Trump led by 40 points, 65% to 25%.
Now these are just a few requests. The New Hampshire election has been difficult and volatile, especially since the Iowa caucuses. Things can change quickly, and it’s not easy to gauge the likely electorate.
However, polls make it clear that if Haley is going to upset Trump in New Hampshire, she will have to start winning independent voters at a greater clip than Trump’s lead among registered Republicans.
And now he doesn’t.