Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
On today’s edition, national political reporters Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar share the key House primaries to watch on Tuesday. Plus, senior politics editor Mark Murray learned about Joe Biden’s poll numbers after the State of the Union.
Tuesday’s House primaries that could have major national implications
By Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar
Joe Biden and Donald Trump may have secured their party’s presidential nomination, but there’s still plenty of intrigue on the ballot heading into Tuesday’s next primary day.
The outcome of the congressional primaries in California, Illinois and Ohio will have a big impact on the House of Representatives, which the Republicans currently hold by a thread, and the future of both parties.
Trump’s Confirmation Power: The Republican presidential nominee’s endorsement will not only be tested Ohio Senate Racebut in two prominent House competitions.
Trump last month threw his support behind Rep. Mike Bost, who is facing a primary challenge from former state Sen. Darren Bailey in Illinois’ 12th District. Bailey, who received Trump’s support during his unsuccessful bid for governor in 2022, is trying to take a conservative line in the primary and has teamed up with Florida state representative Matt Gaetz. But Bost outdoes Bailey on the airwaves promoting the former president’s support. Regardless of who wins the primary, the seat is expected to remain in GOP hands.
The former president also made an 11th-hour endorsement in Ohio’s contested 9th District Republican primary on Monday. The district, which Trump won in 2020, is represented by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and will be a top GOP target this fall. Republicans feel their chances are better after that JR MajewskiThe controversial candidate who lost to Kaptur in 2022 dropped out of the race this month.
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Democrats on Defense: In addition to Kaptur’s seat, Tuesday’s primaries will set up general election contests in two other battleground states.
Several Republicans are running against freshman Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in Ohio’s 13th District, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. And Republicans will turn a blind eye to changing Democratic Representative Eric Sorensen’s seat in the 17th District of Illinois, as they want to maintain a razor-thin majority.
Bolstering a narrow GOP majority: Meanwhile, Republicans will try to secure that majority before the November elections.
California has a special primary on Tuesday to serve out the remainder of the former House speaker’s term Kevin McCarthyduration of Candidates from all parties will appear on the same ballot in the GOP-heavy 20th District. If no one gets over 50%, the top two finishers advance to the second round in May. But if someone wins a majority, House Republicans will soon swell their ranks.
Here are the results: So far, no states in the Union have voted for Biden
Analysis by Mark Murray
It’s been eleven days since Biden’s State of the Union address, and the first polls since then are clear: The president’s numbers are barely down.
His approval rating remains in the high 30s and low 40s, according to polls USA Today/Suffolk and The Economist/YouGov It was carried out after the March 7 speech.
National polls continue to show a tight general election race against Donald Trump, with the presumptive Republican nominee leading by a few points (per capita). The Economist/YouGov) or Biden narrowly ahead (per Reuters/Ipsos) — all within error limits.
And Trump is leading the battlegrounds Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan According to polls conducted by Fox News and Quinnipiac University after Biden’s big address — at a margin of error.
What’s striking about Biden’s political stance, as well as his numbers in the rematch against Trump, is how little they’ve changed. since last fall. Even after Trump won Iowa and New Hampshire in January, after both men blocked their party’s presidential nomination, and after Biden’s State of the Union. received praise from Democrats and commentators.
None of this is to say that the contours of the 2024 race won’t change between now and November (they always can) or that Biden can’t win with his current numbers (polls have found Biden overwork among those who “slightly” dislike what he does).
But they highlight how little has changed in public opinion about Biden and Trump — even after major events like the first primary results and the State of the Union.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- ☎️ Biden warned Netanyahu: Biden spoke on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time in 32 days on Monday, warning against Israel’s planned military operation in Rafah. More →
- 🏠 Disappointment comes from inside the White House: At a White House meeting in January, Biden “started yelling and cursing” after hearing that his poll numbers were down in Michigan and Georgia because of his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas. More →
- 💰 No Dice: Trump has yet to post bail for a $464 million civil fraud judgment against him, which he must appeal. More →
- 🎙️ NBC News talks to Laken Riley’s father: The father of a nursing student who was killed in 2022 during a run by a man who entered the US illegally has shared his frustration that her death was being “used politically to get these votes”. More →
- 👋 Guess who’s back? The Washington Post reports that Trump has been waiting on Paul Manafort for several years to campaign after he pardoned Manafort for fraud and tax charges uncovered during the Mueller report. More →
- ♟️Games people play: A non-profit group has conducted war games aimed at predicting how artificial intelligence-generated “deepfakes” will win the 2024 presidential election. It didn’t go well. More →
For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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