DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Shifting tectonic plates send shockwaves of uncertainty from Beijing to Brussels as president-elect Donald Trump is set to take office, and the implications could see US priorities diverge from those of its closest European allies in a way not seen in decades.
The incoming administration is likely to pressure European leaders to take a tougher stance ChinaAlthough he sees America as the main enemy, his countries are like that economically intertwined with both powers and their interests do not always align with those of Washington, several European officials and diplomats told NBC News. Trump should have followed his lead promised to impose tariffs In imports from Europe as well as China, they are likely to deviate further.
There is uncertainty across the continent about what the new White House will mean for the country war in ukraine. Trump has repeatedly said he can end the conflict in a day, and despite Russian claims to the contrary, that boast has led to fears he will push for massive concessions in favor of the Russian president. Vladimir Putin.
“The Trump effect is panic,” a European Union official told NBC News on Sunday. “They will have to make a decision and take a stand.”
But unity seems unlikely.
A number of European leaders criticized the German chancellor Olaf Scholz He became the first sitting leader of a major Western country to talk to him since late 2022, calling Putin last week to try to persuade him to negotiate.
Among them is the president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenskyhe said it was “exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time” as he sought to ease his international isolation.
The EU official added that “Europe is alarmed by all this.” “People were saying privately that we will see what to do about Ukraine, we will see what to do about China. But now the world is turned upside down and they still don’t know what to do.”
Eyes on Beijing
There are signs that European countries may decide the response is to move closer to China, potentially creating a conflict with the United States.
During his first administration, Trump focused on China, and since then he has maintained a tough stance against the country, which both the United States and Europe see as an economic and systemic rival, even considered one of their biggest trade partners. partners.
Trump days before the US presidential elections choice for national security adviserRep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., He wrote in The Economist The next president must quickly end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and “finally shift the strategic focus to where it needs to be: against the greater threat of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Relations between Europe and China have worsened in recent years due to trade, human rights, and China’s aggression against Azerbaijan. South China Sea and status TaiwanA self-governing island that Beijing claims as its territory.
They have become more tense since Russia’s large-scale intervention in Ukraine in February 2022, with some European leaders suggesting that Beijing lean more heavily on Moscow to end the conflict.
Still, four European diplomats and officials from major Western capitals, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely, said their countries did not want a full-scale confrontation with China.
“We don’t want to be dragged into the foreign policy against China that the new American administration will engage in,” said one senior European official. “America is our friend and ally. But we have our own foreign policy and our own economic position towards China.”
At the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday, Keir Starmer He became the first British prime minister to meet the Chinese president since 2018 Xi Jinping in person.
Starmer called for “consistent, sustainable” ties between the two countries, while Xi said they had “vast potential for cooperation.” Starmer has been criticized by British lawmakers this week for not publicly condemning the jail sentences handed down to him, although Starmer told reporters that he had “open” discussions with Xi about issues where China and Britain disagree. 45 pro-democracy in China Hong Kongas well as the ongoing trial of a pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy LaiHe is a British citizen.
Xi also discussed the war in Ukraine EU tariffs on China-made electric cars in meetings With Scholz and the French President Emmanuel Macron within the framework of the G20 summit.
In some ways, Trump’s second term may be “good news” for Europe because, unlike the president Joe BidenWu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the United States “wouldn’t care much” about rallying its allies against China.
“This will give Europeans more leverage in managing their relations with China,” Wu said Monday at an event hosted by the University of Hong Kong’s Center for Contemporary China and the World.
He also noted that a number of European leaders and other political figures have already visited Beijing in recent months to strengthen ties.
Chinese officials have also suggested it could be an opportunity to improve relations with Europe.
“China supports Europe playing a bigger role in international affairs, but does not want it to pick sides and cause the blocs to clash,” said Cao Lei, deputy head of European affairs at the Chinese Foreign Ministry. South China Morning Post this month.
Russian threat
For many Europeans, it is Moscow, not Beijing, that poses the immediate threat. China could help pressure Russia over Ukraine, they say, as Xi grows impatient with a war he doesn’t expect to last nearly three years.
While China has never publicly condemned Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, it has helped curb Moscow in other ways, a senior European diplomat said.
“They were determined with Russia not to use nuclear weapons with Ukraine,” the diplomat said.
China is also worried about the strengthening of security ties with Russia North Korea after the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership The diplomat added in June.
Leader of a secret communist state, say the US and others Kim Jong Unthere is sent thousands of troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine in exchange for technical assistance related to nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
“China does not want a more capable North Korean military,” the diplomat said. “So I would expect that this would be one of those issues where we could seriously talk to the Chinese.”
Another European diplomat said Moscow would be a wild card in international efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
“You can see the need for it from the Ukrainians, the Europeans say we will not finance this big and endless war,” they said. “It’s harder for Putin to understand what it is.”
While Moscow has said it is open to talks, Russia’s dominance on the battlefield may convince Putin that he has more to gain by fighting than by settling. But European governments, which provide Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in military and other aid, are paying for it.
“The pay, pay, pay strategy was not working,” said an EU official. “Europe just wants to stop the war now.”
But avoiding any whiff of surrender is also hopeless.
“The EU continues to say that when Ukraine wants to negotiate, Ukraine will negotiate and that the EU will stand by Ukraine until the end,” another European official said.
Keir Simmons reported from Dubai and Jennifer Jett reported from Hong Kong.