Where Trump’s standing with Puerto Rican voters will be put to the test: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Steve Kornacki breaks down the key areas where Donald Trump’s standing with Puerto Rican voters will be tested. Plus, senior national politics correspondent Matt Dixon looks at Trump’s risk of stifling his closing argument.

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Where Trump’s support will be tested among Puerto Rican voters

Steve Kornacki

Donald Trump’s campaign speech in Allentown, Pa., comes amid questions about whether it will have an impact tonight Madison Square Garden rally it will cost him support among Puerto Rican voters.

The risks for Trump are clear enough. He gained ground among Hispanics of all origins, including Puerto Ricans, in 2020, and polls showed him poised to do better this time around. Pennsylvania, with its rapidly growing Hispanic population, is a state where this newfound support could give Trump a decisive advantage — if it actually materializes on Election Day.

Allentown is a majority Hispanic city of 125,000, and nearly a quarter of its total population is of Puerto Rican descent – ​​one of the highest concentrations of Puerto Ricans in the United States. The city remains a Democratic stronghold, but Trump has entered it. In 2020, it reduced its deficit from 42 in 2016 to 35.

Allentown is also part of a small-to-medium-sized group of eastern Pennsylvania cities with large Hispanic populations, including Reading, Bethlehem, Lebanon, Hazleton, and Easton. The specific concentration of Puerto Ricans varies, but in all of these cities, Trump did better in 2020 than in 2016, while losing ground in Pennsylvania overall.

Kamala Harris aims to earn more The densely populated suburbs of Philadelphia and other similar places, further growth with Hispanic voters could be important to Trump’s math in the Keystone State.

Polls in Pennsylvania will close at 8:00 PM EST on Election Night, but before then we might get a big clue about Trump’s Puerto Rican support. In Florida south of Orlando, majority-Hispanic Osceola County is a large county (population about 450,000 – and growing) that is about one-third the size of Puerto Rico. In 2020, Trump lost Osceola by 14 points, a huge improvement from his 25-point loss in 2016. With Florida reporting so efficiently, we need to understand how Trump is doing in Osceola at 7:00 p.m. Let it be a sign of things to come in Pennsylvania.

Of course, despite the current media storm, it is possible that Trump will not significantly lose Hispanic support. In this regard, it is also possible that we are looking in the wrong place to gauge the potential damage from the rally. The poll consistently found a particular distaste for Trump’s provocative antics among college-educated suburbanites, voters who moved strongly against him in 2016 and even in 2020. Now who can not decide that time?

Trump threatens to suffocate his final message in the final days of the election

By Matt Dixon

“Are you better now than you were four years ago?”

That’s the question Donald Trump has asked at the start of every campaign rally he’s held over the past week.

Together, more than half a dozen swing state events, along with key interviews with conservative media personalities, served as his temporary closing argument against an intensely divided electorate in this historic presidential race.

For months, Trump and Kamala Harris have expressed very different visions of the country’s future, but with Election Day a week away, both are using eerily similar messages to seal the deal.

Harris has spent recent weeks convincing a polarized nation that Trump is determined to raise political norms, that he believes the January 6 attack was a good thing, that he wants to make friends with authoritarian leaders around the world and that he intends to use the power of the federal government. to attack his political enemies.

Meanwhile, Trump has spent recent weeks trying to convince a polarized nation that he is determined to raise political standards, that he believes the January 6 attack was a good thing, that he wants to make friends with authoritarian leaders around the world and that he intends to use the power of power. federal government to attack political enemies.

The challenge for both sides is to convince the country that their way of looking at the world is correct. For Trump, it’s also about staying true to his message.

During his daily rallies in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina last week, Trump tried to show American voters that he wants to be the backbone of his policies.

But in recent days, efforts to bolster those positions have been easily overshadowed by the same oft-used jabs that drew Trump the big audience cheers he craved. These include, among others, talking about Harris’s intelligence — he regularly says he’s “stupid” — making the U.S. the world’s “garbage can,” Harris suggests without proving that he is drunk or druggedhe regularly compares himself to the inventor of the paper clip, threatens to arrest his political opponents and talks about. some specific body parts of legendary golfer Arnold Palmer.

Read more from Matt →

Speaking of closure arguments: Harris will ask voters to “turn the page” on the Trump era during a speech tonight at the former president’s Jan. 6 address. More →

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – whether you like it or not – please email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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