Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Steve Kornacki breaks down the key areas where Donald Trump’s standing with Puerto Rican voters will be tested. Plus, senior national politics correspondent Matt Dixon looks at Trump’s risk of stifling his closing argument.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.
Where Trump’s support will be tested among Puerto Rican voters
Steve Kornacki
Donald Trump’s campaign speech in Allentown, Pa., comes amid questions about whether it will have an impact tonight Madison Square Garden rally it will cost him support among Puerto Rican voters.
The risks for Trump are clear enough. He gained ground among Hispanics of all origins, including Puerto Ricans, in 2020, and polls showed him poised to do better this time around. Pennsylvania, with its rapidly growing Hispanic population, is a state where this newfound support could give Trump a decisive advantage — if it actually materializes on Election Day.
Allentown is a majority Hispanic city of 125,000, and nearly a quarter of its total population is of Puerto Rican descent – one of the highest concentrations of Puerto Ricans in the United States. The city remains a Democratic stronghold, but Trump has entered it. In 2020, it reduced its deficit from 42 in 2016 to 35.
Allentown is also part of a small-to-medium-sized group of eastern Pennsylvania cities with large Hispanic populations, including Reading, Bethlehem, Lebanon, Hazleton, and Easton. The specific concentration of Puerto Ricans varies, but in all of these cities, Trump did better in 2020 than in 2016, while losing ground in Pennsylvania overall.
Kamala Harris aims to earn more The densely populated suburbs of Philadelphia and other similar places, further growth with Hispanic voters could be important to Trump’s math in the Keystone State.
Polls in Pennsylvania will close at 8:00 PM EST on Election Night, but before then we might get a big clue about Trump’s Puerto Rican support. In Florida south of Orlando, majority-Hispanic Osceola County is a large county (population about 450,000 – and growing) that is about one-third the size of Puerto Rico. In 2020, Trump lost Osceola by 14 points, a huge improvement from his 25-point loss in 2016. With Florida reporting so efficiently, we need to understand how Trump is doing in Osceola at 7:00 p.m. Let it be a sign of things to come in Pennsylvania.
Of course, despite the current media storm, it is possible that Trump will not significantly lose Hispanic support. In this regard, it is also possible that we are looking in the wrong place to gauge the potential damage from the rally. The poll consistently found a particular distaste for Trump’s provocative antics among college-educated suburbanites, voters who moved strongly against him in 2016 and even in 2020. Now who can not decide that time?
Trump threatens to suffocate his final message in the final days of the election
By Matt Dixon
“Are you better now than you were four years ago?”
That’s the question Donald Trump has asked at the start of every campaign rally he’s held over the past week.
Together, more than half a dozen swing state events, along with key interviews with conservative media personalities, served as his temporary closing argument against an intensely divided electorate in this historic presidential race.
For months, Trump and Kamala Harris have expressed very different visions of the country’s future, but with Election Day a week away, both are using eerily similar messages to seal the deal.
Harris has spent recent weeks convincing a polarized nation that Trump is determined to raise political norms, that he believes the January 6 attack was a good thing, that he wants to make friends with authoritarian leaders around the world and that he intends to use the power of the federal government. to attack his political enemies.
Meanwhile, Trump has spent recent weeks trying to convince a polarized nation that he is determined to raise political standards, that he believes the January 6 attack was a good thing, that he wants to make friends with authoritarian leaders around the world and that he intends to use the power of power. federal government to attack political enemies.
The challenge for both sides is to convince the country that their way of looking at the world is correct. For Trump, it’s also about staying true to his message.
During his daily rallies in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina last week, Trump tried to show American voters that he wants to be the backbone of his policies.
But in recent days, efforts to bolster those positions have been easily overshadowed by the same oft-used jabs that drew Trump the big audience cheers he craved. These include, among others, talking about Harris’s intelligence — he regularly says he’s “stupid” — making the U.S. the world’s “garbage can,” Harris suggests without proving that he is drunk or druggedhe regularly compares himself to the inventor of the paper clip, threatens to arrest his political opponents and talks about. some specific body parts of legendary golfer Arnold Palmer.
Speaking of closure arguments: Harris will ask voters to “turn the page” on the Trump era during a speech tonight at the former president’s Jan. 6 address. More →
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🗣️ Notable quote: House Speaker Mike Johnson told a campaign crowd in Pennsylvania that there would be “massive” changes to healthcare in America if Trump wins the election. More →
- 🔊 Volume up: Elon Musk, who has emerged as Trump’s best ally, tends to use violent and vulgar rhetoric directed at Harris. More →
- 👀 Voice tracking: Trump is ramping up allegations of unsubstantiated election fraud, but legal experts say any attempt to disrupt the process will run up against a number of new safeguards this time around and are unlikely to succeed. More →
- ⚖️ Trump is on trial : Win or lose, what could happen to Trump’s court cases after the election. More →
- ➡️ From prison : Podcast host and former Trump campaign official Steve Bannon has been released from prison after serving time in contempt of Congress. More →
- 🗽 Empire State of Mind: Trump appears to be running stronger in New York than most Republicans have in recent elections, which could spell trouble for down-ballot Democratic candidates in certain areas. More →
- 🗳️ On the ballot: Next week, voters will decide the fate of a total of 147 ballot measures in 41 states that deal with issues ranging from abortion to marijuana to immigration. More →
- 🎙️ The boys are back in town: JD Vance will record an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan following Trump’s final speech. More →
- 🏛️ Back to Campus: Harris plans to spend his election night at Howard University in Washington More →
- 🎤 Question-Answer: Emma Barnett spoke with Philadelphia college singer John Legend about her efforts on the campaign trail to get Harris and other Democrats on the ballot. More →
- Watch live from the campaign trail →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – whether you like it or not – please email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
If you are a fan, please share with anyone and everyone. They can register here.