Fri. Jul 19th, 2024

Biden rode the perception of electability to victory in 2020. But now it may be his undoing.

By 37ci3 Jul11,2024



Joe Biden’s superpower within the Democratic Party has been the belief that he can defeat Donald Trump — a belief that helped him win the crowded 2020 election campaign. But with members of his party worried he’ll lose re-election and bring everyone down with him, his ability to get elected quickly becomes his potential kryptonite.

“Live by your electability, die by your electability,” said Seth Masket, director of the Center for American Politics at the University of Denver and author of the book. book About the recent Democratic presidential election.

Several Democrats fired back after Biden’s disastrous debate performance, anticipating how the criticism would play out in the polls. As the numbers come in, the picture is complicated — which has neither quieted nor strengthened calls for him to step aside.

On Wednesday, several Democrats were on display as one of the party’s top leaders, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, joined the ranks in saying she should step aside. refused to take a strong position In any case.

Voter turnout has always been a nebulous concept, tied to feelings as evidence and the imaginary behavior of hypothetical swing voters. But Democrats chose Biden four years ago because they thought he was the most electable. Now the party is threatening to drop Biden — the only person who actually beat Trump — because it’s convinced he can’t win again and take the rest of the party down with him.

“He’s only there because Democrats believe he’s the most electable. And they were willing to push aside many other candidates because they believed he was the only one who could do it.” Muscat said. “But it can be a fragile thing to close your presidency.”

Nearly two weeks after his disastrous debate performance, Biden’s perceived electability took a nosedive as some Democrats in battleground races called for him to step aside on Wednesday.

“Trump is an existential threat to American democracy; it’s our duty to run the strongest candidate against him,” Rep. Pat Ryan, D-N.Y., who won a swing district in upstate New York in a high-profile special election. X said. “Joe Biden is a patriot, but he is no longer the best candidate to defeat Trump. For the sake of our country, I ask Joe Biden to step aside.”

Ryan was the only Democrat to survive a 2022 election in New York that several of his colleagues lost, so his political instincts carry weight with Washington Democrats.

Another battlefield MP, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., who called on Biden to step aside and told reporters that despite the party’s differences over him, “we are united in our desire to defeat Trump.”

George Clooney, the A-list movie star and lifelong Democrat who hosted a fundraiser for Biden just a few weeks ago, wrote in a post. New York Times publication Democrats “won’t win in November with this president” and won’t win the House or Senate with him, Democrats said Wednesday.

“It’s not just my opinion; This is the opinion of every senator, congressman and governor I have spoken to privately. Regardless of what anyone says in public.” Clooney wrote. “Joe Biden is a hero; he saved democracy in 2020. We need him to do it again in 2024.”

More than questions about whether he has misled voters about his ability or qualifications to serve as president, those seeking to replace Biden say the electability argument resonates with voters and party officials alike.

The actual evidence on Biden’s political health remains mixed. But Trump was ahead in the polls for a few months before the debate, and then things turned sour.

Though modest and within his faults, surveys have found some mobility In Trump’s direction. Biden’s fundraising has weakened. And Cook’s Political Report, whose analysis is considered gospel in Washington, is a respectable electoral hurdle. changed six states toward Trump in his prediction.

It changed Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — all states Biden won in 2020 — from “toss up” to “lean Republican,” and Minnesota and New Hampshire from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

Momentum was swinging toward Biden this week as it became clear that most House and Senate Democrats were still with him.

But growing concerns about his election led to new defections, including the first from the Senate.

“Donald Trump, I think, is on track to win this election, and maybe by a wide margin, and take the Senate and the House with him,” said Senator Michael Bennet, Democrat of Colorado. This was reported by CNN on Tuesday. “So for me, it’s not a poll question, it’s not a policy question. It’s a moral question about the future of our country, and I think it’s very important for us to understand what we’re going to face if we put this country together on the path to re-electing Donald Trump.”

Democrats are especially eager to hear whether the races of senators up for re-election this year could determine control of the Senate. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont. and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, have privately expressed doubts that Biden can beat Trump but remained silent publicly.

Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is up for re-election in critical battleground state Wisconsin, would not say much to reporters, but she said Wednesday’s closed-door talks were “focused on defeating Trump.”

Pelosi shocked Washington on Wednesday morning when she repeatedly refused to say whether Biden should run for re-election.

Numerous Democrats have expressed concern about Biden’s impact on their races on the ballot. Richie Torres, a well-known New York Democrat, X said “Regardless of who nominated us, there must be a serious reckoning with the low electoral effect.”

Republicans, meanwhile, no longer schedule to run ads Congressional Democrats praising Biden’s mental acuity.

Democrats are horrified at the prospect of another Trump term, and even Biden’s former White House communications director has said he needs to do a better job of convincing the party he can do it.

“If there is data that supports what they see as the path to victory, they should put it out there now and help the people who want to defeat Trump,” Kate Bedingfield said. He wrote in X.

Senate Democrats will hear from Biden’s inner circle Thursday as campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon and top advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti speak to them at a weekly briefing.

Meanwhile, several more House members have come forward — though public defectors remain a small minority of the caucus.

“[S]During the debates, I met with Biden voters in Massachusetts who have real concerns about the President’s ability to defeat Donald Trump. I share those concerns,” Rep. Lori Trahan, D-Mass., the ranking member of the House Democratic leadership, said in a statement on Wednesday. nothing suggests voters see things the same way.”

said Lauren Harper, co-founder of Welcome PAC, which supports moderate Democrats running in conservative-leaning swing districts. voting indicates electoral capacity It remains a major concern as Democrats consider who they want as a candidate, including potential Biden replacements.

“They want someone who can win,” he said. “And a lot of people don’t think Biden can do that.”





Source link

By 37ci3

Related Post

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *