WASHINGTON – The economy is improving, inflation is falling, unemployment is falling and the stock market is hitting record highs. It is a crime fall. US crude oil production is at an all-time high all time high. The special counsel declined to indict President Joe Biden for mishandling classified information, and the Republican impeachment inquiry continues.
Biden’s re-election bid is strengthening, but he still enters the general election in a weaker position than he was in 2020, when he consistently leads Donald Trump in national and swing state polls, often by wide margins. His struggles come despite Trump’s mounting bills and four criminal cases, one of which will begin trial next month.
Democrats have various theories as to why.
“Because we haven’t made our case yet,” Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, said in an interview.
“Democrats have a strong record on the economy, on crime, on cheaper prescription drugs, on climate change, on civil rights, on human rights, on gun safety, and [Trump’s] the record was catastrophically bad,” he said. We’ll have that debate when we move into a different season. As soon as people hear it, the voices move.”
‘We have plenty of time’
The president has just over seven months to go, and according to polls this month, he and Trump have plenty of votes to act. Nationally, most requests to show a statistical relationship or a Trump is leading. By contrast, at this time in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by nearly 6 points, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.
In the battleground states that gave Biden the White House — such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona — polls in recent weeks show mostly dead heat or Trump outside the margin of error. A clear Biden lead was common in state polls around this time in 2020, but today it’s all gone.
New Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey Tuesday found signs of hope for Biden as he surged against Trump in six of the seven states over the past month. Still, there was little to celebrate: He either trailed Trump or was statistically tied in all seven states. The poll found voters believe the economy is improving, a CNBC national purvey found a dead heat.
Biden’s campaign notes that Democrats have consistently outperformed the polls since 2022. But in 2016 and 2020, when Trump was on the ballot, Democrats performed poorly in the polls both times. The Electoral College has built-in advantages for Trump: In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes and broke the Electoral College margin by 45,000 votes in three states.
Lauren Hitt, a spokeswoman for the Biden campaign, declined to comment on the polls but credited him with the improving economy.
“Joe Biden wakes up every day and fights to make life better for the American people,” he said. “The president is committed to winning the American vote without asking, unlike Donald Trump, who has campaigned for revenge and revenge for himself and his wealthy friends.”
The Trump campaign said its arguments were strong.
“Inflation is still wildly out of control, commodity prices are astronomical, the illegal border is an unmitigated disaster that is bleeding communities across the country, and [special counsel Robert] Hur called Crooked Joe a low-IQ old man with a terrible memory who is truly unfit to stand trial,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in an email. “Democrats and the media need to stop telling the American people about all the damage Crooked Joe has done in just four years.”
“Some of Biden’s Coalition Still Walking”
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said he doesn’t believe improving conditions will save Biden because the benefits of lower unemployment and higher wages have been uneven.
“The economy is not uniform,” he said. “In many ways, the elites in our country do not have the day-to-day experience of many working families. So I think there’s a big connection—part of it is economic and part of it is cultural. It’s my gut instinct.”
Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said Biden’s struggle is due to voters “still fearing higher prices” even as inflation is down. He should speak to Biden’s ongoing concerns, such as fentanyl poisoning, mental health and education.
“Buying a house or renting a house and the cost of medicine is high,” he said, calling for initiatives to “take over the hedge funds buying the housing market” and discuss “every medicine for every American.” to reduce drug costs. “In all these areas, the Biden team has policies that will improve things. To be honest, Trump doesn’t do that,” he said. “We have plenty of time to have this discussion before the election.”
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, bullish on Biden’s prospects, said “a lot of voters are not registered” and “some of Biden’s coalition is still hanging around,” so polls show him struggling with young and non-white voters. He predicted that the polls would improve for Biden in “late spring” around April or May.
“Our view is that — and I kind of share the campaign’s view on this — the likely scenario is that part of the coalition comes home in the next few months as it becomes clear that it’s Biden-Trump and Biden. The campaign is on,” Rosenberg said. , “then my expectation is that we will go up a few points.”
GOP ‘messed up’ its case against Biden?
Rosenberg said his optimism is due in part to the weakening GOP case.
“Their main arguments against Biden – most of them have evaporated in the last few months. The economy is strong; not weak. Inflation is coming down; it’s not going away. Violent crime and homicides aren’t going up, they’re going down. We’re producing more energy domestically than ever before – there’s no war on energy.” he said. “And if you take them away … what was left of them was the ‘Biden crime family’ story that has been exposed as a farce in recent weeks” and Biden’s age.
“They had clear advantages on the border. “I think they’ve trampled on that now,” he said, referring to the GOP’s rejection of a bipartisan bill backed by Biden to impose tougher border and asylum laws. they gave a chance.
“What is left for the Republicans is that there is not much. They have no obvious place to go after Biden,” Rosenberg said. “And the likelihood that this will turn into a referendum on Trump has increased dramatically in my view in the last few weeks.”
Senator Tim Kaine of D-Va., who will be re-elected this year, said that he will fight the presidential race until the end.
“In many of our states, the population is strongly divided. I am very proud of the president’s record and proud to be a part of it. However, I do not see the next months as smooth. I think we really have to work. We have to fight every day to succeed. We need the nation to be successful.” “It will be a race unlike any other in the history of the country.”