Biden and Trump are already battling for Haley’s voters: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s episode, Allan Smith and Ali Vitali, who cover Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign, battle it out to win over her supporters. Plus, Chuck Todd explains why the next few weeks could be a critical period as Joe Biden and Donald Trump turn toward a general election rematch.

The fight is on for Haley’s supporters

By Allan Smith and Ali Vitali

Nikki Haley’s the campaign is overbut the struggle to win over his supporters has just begun.

With Donald Trump and Joe Biden slated as their party’s presidential nominees, Haley’s voting bloc will now have to come to terms with a choice many don’t want to make.

And Trump and Biden’s primary speeches to these voters could not have sounded more different.

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Trump tweeted that Haley was “PROUNCED” on Truth Social Super Tuesday “in record fashion,” he added, “most of his money came from Radical Left Democrats, as did many of his constituents.” He later said, “I would like to invite all Haley supporters to join us in the greatest movement in our Nation’s history.”

Meanwhile, Biden said in a statement: “Donald Trump has made it clear that he does not want Nikki Haley’s supporters.” I want to be clear: there is a place for them in my campaign.”

Additionally, a Biden campaign official told NBC News that funding groups for Biden and the Democratic National Committee have recently reached out to Haley’s donors, including efforts led by Hollywood mogul and Biden national co-chair Jeffrey Katzenberg.

Haley’s coalition has been boosted by crossover voters jumping into open primaries looking to stick it to Trump. Although they are a minority in the GOP primary, strategists from both parties have acknowledged that some of his supporters could play a key role in close battlegrounds.

An NBC News exit poll on Super Tuesday showed sharp divisions between Trump and Haley supporters on key questions. In Virginia and North Carolina, nearly half of Haley’s supporters said they approve of Biden’s job performance as president — higher than the public as a whole. On the other hand, almost none of Trump’s supporters disapproved of Biden’s performance.

New York Times/Siena College survey released on Saturday It found that nearly half of Haley’s supporters — 48% — voted for Biden in 2020, compared to 31% who said they supported Trump then.

And as NBC News’ Steve Kornacki writesTrump’s poor performance with independent voters in the GOP primaries may be more a result of encouraging “resistance” independents to turn out than reflecting the views of independent voters in general.

Still, there may be a group of Haley voters now looking for a home that could play a key role in either candidate’s coalition — especially voters who dislike either man or have concerns about their seniority.

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Why these next few weeks could be a critical stretch in the Biden-Trump rematch

Analysis by Chuck Todd

This general election is going to go badly. This will be personal. And as the two campaigns jostle, I suspect that Trump supporters will assume that Biden is on death’s door, while Biden supporters will assume that the Constitution will be suspended on the day of the second Trump’s inauguration.

The real question, of course, is what negative attacks will really stick in the minds of voters who aren’t strictly partisan and tend to accept the worst ideas about either candidate. And the next six weeks should tell us a lot about how far the anti-Trump paid media campaign can carry Biden’s numbers.

Given Biden’s financial advantage over Trump, it would be a mistake for the Biden campaign not to immediately try to build on that advantage. Right now, this campaign has the air of a “referendum for Biden,” which is a fairly natural occurrence in the incumbent’s reelection efforts. The opponent – ​​in this case Trump – is someone who is constantly on the trail and in the news, and his victories give him a bit of a “winner” halo effect.

Just ask President Dukakis, Romney and Kerry how long this will last. There were moments when everyone successfully campaigned about the other guy (and their party). That is, until the current president’s campaign speaks up and starts spending money.

One of the hallmarks of Trump’s campaigns is his ability to present his own weaknesses to his opponent. One of the more effective hits against Trump is to paint him as an agent of chaos, unable or unwilling to prevent the January 6 protest from turning into a full-blown riot, for example. Of course, Trump knows this — which is why he regularly describes the border or what’s happening overseas as “chaotic” or “out of control” on Biden’s watch.

I’m interested to see how the Biden team handles this vaccination effort. One of the big challenges he faces is convincing the middle class of voters to vote for Biden a second time, this time claiming that the chaos that Biden promised to leave the nation behind in 2020 will actually end. Will these voters believe it?

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For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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