Fri. Jul 19th, 2024

Some Super Tuesday primaries are still uncalled. Here’s what we know.

By 37ci3 Mar6,2024

Most of the big Super Tuesday primaries have a clear winner at this point — but a day after voting closes, several close races are still in limbo.

It includes a pair of key swing seats in the House race, a major proxy battle between different wings of the Republican Party, a battle to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and several other key races.

Here’s a look at the major races across the country where the NBC News Decision Desk has yet to predict a winner. This collection of House primaries is concentrated in California, where the widespread use of mail-in voting and the long post-election period lead to slow vote counting.

Battlefield seats

California 22nd District primary

Republican Rep. David Valadao may have a re-election race in the Central Valley the most competitive battles in the entire House In 2024 – if Republicans fail to oust Democrats in the general election. That’s the intrigue in this seat with half the votes and no predictions.

California’s nonpartisan primary puts every candidate on the same ballot, with the top two candidates going to the general election regardless of party. In that district, Valadao leads with 34%, former Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas with 28%, Republican former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys with 22% and Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado with 15%.

Democrats defeated Valadao in 2018, only to see him return in 2020 and win again in 2022. But if he and Mathys are the front-runners, Democrats won’t even have a chance to swing seats this cycle.

California 47th District primary

Other the main battleground for the fall, this Orange County seat is open due to Democratic Representative Kathy Porter’s unsuccessful bid for Senate. And it’s no stranger to celebrating general election races.

With almost two-thirds of the vote currently, there is no forecast for this seat. Republican Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter by less than 10,000 votes in 2022, leads with 33% of the primary vote, followed by two Democratic state senators. Dave Min and attorney Joanna Weiss.

Safe blue and red seats

North Carolina 8th District GOP primary

Republican Mark Harris is running for Congress again, six years after his previous congressional campaign with one of Harris’ advisers. accused of widespread ballot fraud. Then Harris finally agreed with the decision ordered a new election, but now he is running describes himself as a victim.

In North Carolina, the first-place candidate can win the primary as long as they get more than 30% of the vote — but if no candidate gets past that threshold, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. Harris is currently dancing that line with 97% of the expected vote and 30.4% support.

Outside groups funded by establishment-aligned Republican megadonors He spent about 2 million dollars against HarrisSupported by the political branch of the right-wing House of Representatives Freedom Caucus. The winner of the GOP primary will be heavily favored to run for Congress next year, given the district’s Republican tilt.

California 20th District primary

A crowded group of mostly Republican candidates is seeking to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the House after he resigned after being ousted late last year.

NBC News’ Decision Desk predicts that Republican state Assemblyman Vince Fong, who is backed by McCarthy and former President Donald Trump, among others, will move on to the general election. But there is no prediction yet about his opponent who has almost half of the votes. Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux and Democrat teacher Marisa Wood are the next top vote-getters, meaning two very different general election contests are possible.

Texas 32nd District Democratic Primary

The race to replace Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in the House as he leaves his blue district to run for Senate also hinges on the order of the state’s runoff. In Texas, the top two primary candidates compete in a runoff unless the first-place candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. And state representative Julie Johnson has 50.4% of the Democratic primary vote, 99%.

Backed by a handful of key progressive groups and state lawmakers, Johnson will move into the general election and be the barring favorite to win a House seat if he remains above 50%. If not, he will likely face a runoff against Brian Williams, a trauma surgeon who has been a vocal supporter of new gun laws and is backed by prominent gun safety groups.

California 12th District primary

Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee is leaving her Bay Area seat open after her unsuccessful Senate bid. While NBC News predicts Democrat Lateefah Simon, who sits on the board of Bay Area Rapid Transit, will move on in this general election, it is unclear who her challenger will be.

Cal State East Bay professor Jennifer Tran and Alameda Councilman Tony Daysog were in second and third place, respectively, with just 21% of the vote Wednesday morning. They’re both Democrats, so look at the Democrats vs. Democrats general election for the dark blue seat.

California 30th District primary

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff left his Senate seat open to run, and the Los Angeles area is overwhelmingly Democratic, so the order in which the candidates finish here matters. It will decide whether a Democrat will be the heavy favorite in the general election against the Republicans, or whether two Democrats will be tied for a seat in Congress.

Democratic state Rep. Laura Friedman is leading so far with 27%, nearly half of the vote. He is backed by the state’s lieutenant governor along with several members of Congress in the state. Dr. Alex Balekian, a Republican, was next with 21 percent, followed by two Democrats, state Sen. Anthony Portantino and Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer.

California 31st District primary

It’s another deep-blue district vacated by a Democratic candidate (this time, Rep. Grace Napolitano) — and that’s led to another crowded race in its place.

Former Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has a slight lead with 66% of the vote. But he is closely followed by two Republicans, Daniel Martinez and Pedro Antonio Casas, both of whom were sitting within 2% of Cisneros as of Wednesday morning.

If one of these Republicans advances, Cisneros will be even more likable in this blue-collar Southern California district.

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