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4 exit poll numbers that explain Trump’s New Hampshire primary win

By 37ci3 Jan24,2024

Former President Donald Trump’s dominance among GOP primary voters fueled his election victory New Hampshire Elementary Tuesday, according to an NBC News exit poll.

While former UN ambassador Nikki Haley managed to win over independent or “undeclared” voters, Trump’s wide margin among self-identified Republican and conservative voters was too big to overcome. Like last week Iowa caucusesThe New Hampshire primary also highlighted how Trump’s fervent supporters have captured the Republican base.

Here are four numbers from an NBC News poll that help explain Trump’s victory:

1. Trump’s GOP margin

Three out of four New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, who identify as Republicans, supported Trump, making up a majority of voters (51%). Haley won 60% of self-identified independent voters, but by 22 points compared to Trump’s 49-point lead among Republicans.

2. The electorate was dominated by conservatives

Self-described conservatives dominated the primary electorate, with 66% of voters describing themselves as such. Trump won 70% of them. Haley won 73% of self-proclaimed moderates, outscoring Trump by about a 3-to-1 margin, but they were a smaller share of voters (28%).

3. A new, pro-Trump GOP base

During the Trump years, the GOP found success among non-college-educated voters, and Trump won that group easily on Tuesday night. Voters without higher education constituted the majority (52%).

Among voters without a college degree, Trump received 66% of the vote, compared to only 32% for Haley. Trump’s performance among these voters also increased by 24 percentage points compared to 2016, when he won 42% of them.

Despite making up smaller shares of the electorate, Trump also won among other groups that make up the GOP base, including 66% of voters with incomes under $50,000, 70% of white evangelical or born-again voters, and 51% of voters over the age of 65.

4. Trump’s superiority in key issues

The top two issues for GOP primary voters were the economy (37%) and immigration (31%) — and Trump outperformed Haley on both.

He won 54% of voters who said the economy was their top issue and 78% who said immigration was most important to their vote.

Exit polls also showed that one of Haley’s key messages on the campaign trail was not a top priority for primary voters. Haley has argued that she is in the best position to defeat President Joe Biden in November, but only 14% of primary voters said it was most important to them. And even among those voters, Trump still had the most support, with 59% backing him and 39% backing Haley.

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By 37ci3

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