DES MOINES, Iowa – Iowa Republican caucus goers are likely to say they will vote for former President Donald Trump in the general election if he becomes the GOP nominee, regardless of who they support on caucus night.
That is, excluding supporters of former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, about half of them – 43% – said they would vote for Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump.
These new findings The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa It further shows how much support Haley has from independents, Democrats and Republicans worried about Trump’s takeover of the GOP. Fully half of his Iowa caucus supporters are independents or crossover Democrats, according to the results of the survey. Overall, Haley finished second in the poll at 20%, to Trump’s 48%.
The poll also shows that three-quarters of voters believe Trump can beat Biden despite the former president’s legal troubles. But still, most of Haley’s supporters think Trump’s victory will be nearly impossible.
“I’m more formally a former Republican and kind of a converted Democrat, and I basically want to caucus in Iowa at least at worst,” said poll respondent Chelsea Cheney, 37, of Lynn. District.
“And looking at all of them, I think it’s Nikki Haley,” Cheney added. “I don’t necessarily like him, but I don’t see him as dangerous the way I see most of the other candidates.”
J. Ann Selzer, an Iowa pollster who has conducted the poll for the past three decades, said: “Haley is boosting the anti-Trump vote. “He has a good relationship with people who are against Trump.”
And while that vote isn’t big enough in Iowa for Haley to come close enough to actually challenge Trump in the polls there, a A different mix of voters in New Hampshire — where independents command a larger share of the vote — could make the Jan. 23 primary more competitive.
Overall, 71% of GOP members in the Iowa poll said they would vote for Trump in the 2024 general election if he were the Republican nominee, 11% for Biden, and 6% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 8% for any other third-party nominee. The rest say they are not sure or will not vote.
But among Iowans who supported Haley as their first choice candidate, only 23% said they would vote for Trump, compared to 43% who said they would vote for Biden.
That compares to 64% of DeSantis supporters and 98% of Trump supporters who said they would vote for Trump if he were the GOP nominee.
Additionally, according to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in Iowa, 74% of Republicans believe Trump can win the general election despite his legal challenges, compared to 23% who believe the former president’s legal problems make it nearly impossible. considers i. Beat Biden.
Those results are essentially unchanged A December Iowa poll.
Once again, the breakdown among Haley’s supporters looks starkly different. Only 42% say Trump can beat Biden, while 54% say his legal problems will make it nearly impossible for him to defeat the Democratic incumbent.
By comparison, only 36% of DeSantis’ supporters and only 3% of Trump’s have doubts about the former president’s chances against Biden.
Haley made electability a big part of her closing argument to voters, highlighting her good poll results against Biden in debates and on the campaign trail. Both of his campaign and super PAC in support of it, it also released advertisements featuring the results of the general election poll.