America’s two vice presidential candidates agreed on Tuesday night that America is in the middle housing crisis too few homes and flat demand have led to rising costs.
But Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota offered starkly different views on how the country got there and how to fix the problem.
Vance, the Republican candidate, believes that the housing problem is caused by the arrival of undocumented immigrants in America.
“Look, in Springfield, Ohio, and in communities across this country, you have overcrowded schools, you have overcrowded hospitals, you have completely unaffordable housing because we’ve brought in millions of illegal immigrants. to compete with Americans for scarce housing,” Vance said, according to a CBS News transcript. Along with zoning reform, Vance and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump have built much of their policy on an unprecedented mass deportation plan that they claim will reduce competition for housing.
Walz, the Democratic candidate, said the causes of America’s housing crisis are more nuanced.
“We can’t blame immigrants for the sole reason,” he said. “The thing is, we don’t have affordable housing naturally, but we can make sure that the government helps to start it, to create it and to build the base.” Walz and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris hope to use tax breaks and spending to stimulate housing construction and ease the financial burden of buying a home.
U.S. housing is expensive: NBC News Homebuyer Hardship Index remains extremely highand shelter costs continue to account for the majority of consumer inflation, rising more than 24% since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rent prices have risen even faster.
But many economists caution that linking rising immigrant numbers to housing costs is not a simple matter. Some have said there is no way to examine available data and surveys in real time to determine the extent of the impact of immigrants on individual housing markets — although a chart compiled by former White House chief economist Ernie Tedeschi for President Joe Biden compares foreign-born population growth nationally There is no clear correlation between local house prices.
Other economists have noted the connection between immigrants and rising housing costs. After discussion, Vance X account shared Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said that “an influx of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in higher rents because additional housing supply may take time to materialize.” immigrants also help alleviate labor shortages, he said.
Vance later shared two studies on housing and immigration showed a link between increased immigration and rising housing costs—although each offered different caveats, including noting that the effect varies over time.
On Wednesday, the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank, published a blog post In his article, “JD Vance Is Right: Immigration Raises Housing Prices, and That’s Good,” he notes that while the increase in the immigrant population causes housing costs to rise, “most of the increase in housing wealth resulting from immigration goes to native-born Americans” and that immigrants also make up the overall population thanks to their large ranks in the construction industry. they increase housing provision.
But overall, economists are skeptical that immigrants are the main driver of the current predicament. Chris Herbert, managing director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, said that while immigrants have increased overall housing demand, “they cannot be blamed for the recent increase in home prices and rents in 2020 and 2021.” He said in an emailed statement to news agencies that immigration has reached its lowest level in decades because of the pandemic.
When immigration begins to increase in 2022 and peaks in 2023, “growth in home prices and rents slows dramatically,” Herbert said.
“Trends in interest rates and pandemic-induced housing demand were more responsible than recent trends in housing prices,” he said.
Sharon Cornelissen, director of housing at the Consumer Federation of America, which advocates for fair housing policies, said historically, immigrants have tended to cluster in vacant or underutilized cities or neighborhoods without competing directly with natives. He cited the influx of immigrants that helped revitalize New York City and Los Angeles in the 1970s and 1980s as they grappled with the effects of white flight.
The Middle Eastern population is also responsible for helping turn around the cities of Dearborn and Hamtramck, outside Detroit, he said.
There is evidence that more recent immigrant flows are difficult for the communities from which they come to manage.
In Brockton, Massachusetts, immigrants from a variety of countries including Haiti, Cape Verde, and Central and South American countries have strained local resources, mostly in the form of emergency shelter capacity. NBC Boston This summer, immigrant-focused nonprofit groups have helped place newly arrived families in motels and partnered with private landlords to house others in apartments, he said.
Housing problems precede immigration growth in Springfield, Ohio, which has become a flashpoint in the national immigration debate, City Manager Bryan Heck said. the letter says Vance and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this summer.
But Heck acknowledged that migrants played a role in complicating the situation.
Heck estimates that the city’s Haitian population has grown by 15,000 to 20,000 over the past four years, adding that “Springfield has seen population growth through immigration, which has significantly impacted our ability as a community to create adequate housing opportunities for all” 60,000 in a community of slightly less than a resident.
He said the increase is putting “significant” strain on the city’s ability to provide housing for all residents. Indeed, Zillow data shows a clear upward trend Rents in Springfield this year compared to 2023.
“Even with 2,000 additional apartments coming online over the next three to five years, it’s still not enough,” Heck said.
His request? More help from Washington.
“Without additional support at the federal level, communities like Springfield will not be able to meet the housing needs of their residents,” he said.