In the race for the White House, as older Americans show signs of shifting political leanings, voters like Teresa Smith, a retiree in rural Georgia, could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.
Smith, 72, has voted for Donald Trump in the last two elections and is likely to vote a third time when President Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee. But with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, she says she’s undecided about who she’ll vote for, or whether she’ll vote at all.
“I wish he would shut up sometimes and talk about the important things,” she said of Trump. “He’s just not a moral person, I don’t feel.” But as for Harris, “I agree with him on birth control and abortion, but honestly, that’s the only thing I agree with him on.”
Older voters, once a reliable group for Republicans, have gravitated to the left, as the baby boomers who came of age in the 1960s and 70s now make up the majority of the voting bloc. (Harris, 59, is among the youngest baby boomers born in 1964, the last year considered part of the generation.) In 2020, Trump to beat Biden 5 percentage points among seniors, down 12 points lead For Republicans, in 2012 Mitt Romney did better than then-President Barack Obama among older voters.
“These voters as a group became politically aware during the civil rights, women’s rights and Watergate movements,” said Bob Ward, who polls older voters for AARP with Fabrizio Ward. “Their politics were defined in an era that might have been seen as a bit more left-of-center.”
While these older voters say they are driven by some of the same issues that drive younger voters, they come with unique concerns about cuts to Social Security, higher prescription drug costs and the cost of caring for a sick spouse or parent. Many older people also live on fixed incomes and have experienced a different economic reality than younger people, who have benefited from increased wages over the past few years to offset higher costs.
Smith and her husband have struggled to stretch their Social Security income, which hovers around $4,000 a month as their expenses rise. When asked how he felt about the state of the economy, he said, “It’s bad.”
“The grocery store is a big thing,” he said. “You go to the grocery store and everything is $5.”
Health care costs have weighed heavily on the couple. Premiums for both of their supplemental health insurance plans are $7,600 a year, and the cost of Smith’s Type 2 diabetes drug recently went from $109 to $132. Although the Biden administration has made efforts to lower prescription drug prices and cap the price of insulin at $35 a month, Smith said he has not felt the results.
About half of seniors depend on Social Security for 50% of their household income, and 1 in 4 depend on Social Security for at least 90% of their income. according to To the Social Security Administration. The average Social Security check was about $2,000 at the beginning of the year and is adjusted for inflation each year.
“If Social Security is your main source of income, imagine how important things like inflation are to you and your monthly budget,” Ward said. “It’s a big thing, and that’s why we’re seeing big inflation issues among older voters.”
Trump – after the beginning of this year offers He would cut Social Security and Medicare — he recently said he would preserve the program and he suggested Exempting Social Security from federal income tax. According to the Social Security Administration, about half of Social Security recipients earn enough to make their benefits taxable.
Harris said he would strengthen it by increasing social security taxes on the wealthy, and as a senator he supported legislation that would increase the amount of income subject to Social Security payroll taxes. Harris also highlights the work the Biden administration has done to lower some prescription drug prices and reduce out-of-pocket costs for Medicare recipients.
“Seniors will be a critical part of a winning Harris-Walz coalition this November, and the stakes couldn’t be higher — so the campaign is working every day to show up and win their support,” said Harris campaign spokesman Seth Schuster.
Polls show a tight race between Trump and Harris among seniors, with Harris gaining support compared to Biden. Pew Research Center request This month, Trump led Harris by 5 points among seniors, down from a 10-point lead over Biden in July.
Other polls showed a tighter race with less action. Nationally on NBC News request Since September, Trump and Harris have been in a virtual tie among top voters, unchanged from their July matchup when Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
At a Trump rally in North Carolina this week, Phil Martin, 73, said he and his wife are struggling to afford food on their Social Security checks, which range from about $125 a week for groceries to $225 a week. Martin, who lives near Charlotte, retired from FedEx in 2011 and his wife, Pam, retired in 2018 after working at Wells Fargo.
“We’re on a fixed income and food prices are just crazy. “Trump is going to change all that,” said Martin, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again in 2024. As he did last time, he will improve the economy.”
At a Harris event in Pennsylvania that same day, Denise Meyer echoed a similar financial struggle. At 72, she wants to retire from nursing in the Pittsburgh area, but doesn’t feel she can and worries about her long-term financial security.
“The reason I’m still working is because I can’t really retire,” Meyer said. “Many of us work more because we have to, not because we want to. I feel that Kamala knows the struggle.”
But for other seniors who have significant investments in the stock market and own their homes, the past four years have bolstered their nest eggs. The S&P 500 is up more than 90% over the past five years, and home prices nationally are up nearly 50%.
“The dichotomy between the time-honored and the less well off is bigger than it is for younger people,” said Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Wealth disparities are even greater than income disparities, which have widened slightly over the years. There really is a gap.”
At the same Harris event in Pennsylvania this week, Dick Edgecombe, 76, a retired construction lawyer from the Pittsburgh suburbs, was at the other end of the economic spectrum. He said he feels much better than he did four years ago, despite the rising cost of living.
“My investments are as valuable as ever because the stock market is doing so well,” said Edgecombe, who plans to vote for Harris. “I am happy that my wife and I can afford to pay the money, and so can our daughter. But we are not indifferent, we are not blind to the fact that we are very lucky, and there are many people in this country who are not so fortunate.”
In northern Michigan, Gary Allen, 66, is among the more liberal-leaning voters who have aged in the older bracket. After a career in blue-collar jobs, he retired to care for his wife with dementia. Some of the most important issues for her, she said, are addressing climate change and protecting the rights of women, minorities and those who identify as LGBTQ.
“Women’s rights, Black rights — I grew up with that, and it definitely influenced me,” said Allen, who said he plans to vote for Harris. “Growing up, I knew I was white, and I knew everything was directed at me.”
While older voters were expected to play an important role in the election, issues affecting them were sometimes overshadowed by more pressing issues such as access to abortion, immigration, and issues of race and gender. Among the messages reaching voters on television, ads about abortion and the economy dominate the landscape, with smaller shares of ads about Medicare and Social Security.
“This is a group that still doesn’t understand that politicians don’t really hear them or what they’re going through economically,” said Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican strategist who polls and conducts focus groups with older women voters for AARP. . “They’re a group that deserves an incredible amount of attention from our politicians and candidates because they’re still the wild card.”