Partisan control of at least eight legislative chambers across the country should be seized This November, battles will go a long way to determine the fate of a number of hot-button issues in key battleground states, from abortion to immigration.
Both parties have focused almost exclusively on five states in the final stretch of the campaign: Arizona, where Republicans hold majorities in the state House and Senate; Michigan, where Democrats control both houses; Minnesota, where Democrats hold the state House; New Hampshire, which Republicans aim to keep state house; and Pennsylvania, which has a Democratic-controlled state House.
In addition, Democrats are also trying to reduce the GOP’s massive state legislative advantages in Kansas, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
State legislative races have traditionally had a more local flavor. But many of this year’s most critical races are in presidential states, with both sides leaning on national issues.
Cash-flushed Democratic groups have stepped up efforts to put reproductive rights at the forefront of many races in those states, mirroring the holdings of the party’s federal candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris.
Republicans, who have held the upper hand in state races for decades, are now at a financial disadvantage, but they hope that an emphasis on issues such as the economy and immigration will allow them to either maintain their lead in some states or regain power. others.
“Sometimes state legislative candidates and national candidates work together, and sometimes they work independently of each other. And on many issues this cycle, I’d say a lot of our candidates are running with the top of the ticket,” said Daniel Squadron, executive director of The States Project, a Democratic-aligned group. $70 million for state legislative races in nine states this cycle.
“When people fear extremism and the circus at the top of the vote, they look to other levels of government for stability, better lives and protection of their freedoms,” he said.
The Squadron investment underscores the Democrats’ money advantage. Forward Majority, a Democratic super PAC, increased its spending plans for state legislative races this month from $35 million to $45 million this cycle.
All this is extra $60 million set aside by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee for such races. (The Democratic National Committee and American Civil Liberties Union they also throw money into state legislative races.)
By comparison, its GOP counterpart, the Republican Government Committee, said it was on track to raise and spend about $50 million this term, with no planned major spending by GOP-affiliated outside groups. (Both parties declined to share specific state appropriations, and tracking specific state spending is difficult because the groups channel their money to dozens of affiliates and campaigns and then spend it.)
“We know we’ll never be able to spend Democrats dollar for dollar, and the more than $175 million national Democratic groups plan to invest will create a significant financial disparity for state Republicans in 2024, but legislative chambers aren’t being won. RSLC spokesman Mike Joyce said it’s only money. “We are confident that Republicans are on the right side of the issues that matter to voters.”
Where state legislative control is at stake
Among the rooms that both sides focus on, six count as skirmishes Larry Sabato’s Crystal BallNonpartisan election forecaster affiliated with the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
They are the Arizona House and Senate, the New Hampshire House, the Michigan House, the Minnesota House, and the Pennsylvania House.
In Arizona, Republicans control the state Senate 16-14 and the state House 31-29.
Democrats have focused on reproductive rights, targeting some Republican lawmakers who voted earlier this year. against the state’s circa 1864 repeal of its ban on abortion. They also highlight water access and housing costs in some districts, allowing candidates in more conservative areas to focus more on border issues and immigration.
DLCC President Heather Williams, referring to messaging in legislative races in states including Arizona, said, “The problem of abortion manifests itself in terms of access to health care: A clinic closed because of laws on the books or access to specialty doctors” in Arizona. “Even in other places [messaging] Focuses on access growth due to Democrats expanding access.
Republicans have placed more emphasis on immigration and the border in the Arizona race. RSLC was recently released Announcements on behalf of Republicans in three competitive districts attacking Democrats on these issues.
In New Hampshire, Republicans control the state House from 197-191 with one independent member and 11 current vacancies.
Democrats tried to emphasize that the state is the only one New England without legal protection of abortion rights in state law or the state constitution. (In New Hampshire, abortion is prohibited after fetal viability, or about the 24th week of pregnancy. But reproductive rights advocates point out that there is no express law on the books stating that abortion is legal before then.)
Republicans, for their part, emphasized the issue of crime with the RSLC Publishing ads on two races dealing with drug-related crimes and fentanyl overdoses — an issue with particular resonance in New Hampshire, where the opioid crisis has ravaged many rural communities.
Democrats are also seeking narrow majorities in three state houses in the Great Lakes states: Michigan, 56-54 in the state House; Minnesota, where they controlled the state house 70-64; and Pennsylvania, where it maintained a one-seat 102-101 majority.
In all three, Republicans leaned toward an economic message, while Democrats took a range of approaches. In many districts in Michigan and Minnesota, they fueled the party’s gains. a trifecta of power in each state. Legislation passed in recent years, particularly in Minnesota, has helped raise the profile of Gov. Tim Walz, who was chosen as Harris’ running mate.
“We’re going out there to explain what this legislative body does for Minnesotans, to make sure it’s really clear,” Williams said, adding that the same approach is taking place in many statehouse races in Michigan.
In many parts of Pennsylvania, Democrats’ arguments are more focused on reproductive rights, voting rights and democracy.
The RSLC’s Joyce won all three wards on the party list the best apple He predicted that the economy-based message would trump the abortion-based message in many districts.
“The top issues on voters’ minds remain the economy and immigration, and Democrats have no real answers for the American people on those fronts,” Joyce said. “Republicans will continue to focus on these issues because they will decide who wins in November.”
Other chambers where control is at stake and invested by both parties include the New Hampshire Senate (where Republicans hold a 14-10 majority) and the Pennsylvania Senate (where Republicans hold a 28-22 majority).
It’s not an election year for the Minnesota Senate — Democrats and Republicans are currently tied at 33 seats each — but a special election is scheduled for November to fill the one remaining vacancy. Members of the Michigan Senate, where Democrats hold a 20-18 majority, are also absent this fall.
Where Democrats want to cut GOP margins
Democratic groups have targeted at least three other states — North Carolina, Kansas and Wisconsin — where control of the state legislature is not up for grabs but where they hope to limit GOP power.
In North Carolina, Democrats need to flip just one seat in both chambers to override the Republican supermajority — and the veto power that comes with it — that they’ve held for the past two years.
North Carolina Republicans used that power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes of legislation on abortion access, electoral management and LGBTQ rights.
Democrats have said retaining the governor’s veto — if Democrat Josh Stein defeats Republican candidate Mark Robinson in the race to replace Cooper this fall — is a critical element of the party’s ability to drive state policy.
“The real governing power that Stein will have will come from the veto. This veto depends on the replacement of single seats,” said The States Project Squadron.
followed by The latest scandal to engulf Robinsondown-ballot Democrats and allied groups They moved quickly to shut down Republican legislative candidates to him.
Democrats are taking a similar approach in Kansas, where Republicans are taking advantage of their legislative advantage. to override vetoes On a set of conservative priorities by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
In Wisconsin, the calculation is slightly different new legislative maps – compilation and signed the law after This was decided by the Supreme Court of the state previous gerrymandered maps were unconstitutional — sure to shift the balance of power in a state legislature dominated by Republicans for more than a decade.
While Wisconsin is closely divided at the state level, the old maps heavily favored Republicans (they controlled 64 of the 99 seats in the state Assembly and 22 of the 33 seats in the state Senate).
According to a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel analysis, the new maps have a roughly even split Democratic and Republican state assembly districts. Democrats predict a wave of Democratic gains this fall, even if they feel majorities in both houses are out of reach in the current cycle.
In many of these races, Democratic messaging has focused on old gerrymandered districts — and the power voters now use to make their voices heard — as well as reproductive rights.
“Wisconsin Democrats have done a really great job of telling the story about the Republican gerrymander,” DLCC’s Williams said.
Republicans, for their part, are in the spotlight parents‘ role in education as well as on economic issues.
“The economy will continue to be a key issue for voters in the battleground states that will decide the election,” said the RSLC’s Joyce.