Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray explains where the polls stand 50 days after Election Day. Plus, we look at how Donald Trump renounced unity in response to a second assassination attempt against him.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.
Where the 2024 race is 50 days away
By Mark Murray
With the 2024 presidential election just 50 days away, Democrats are in a stronger position than they have been this year as they switch candidates, but the race remains close.
That’s the bottom line of a public poll conducted after the (presumably only) debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, and before Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt on Trump.
The latest national survey ABC News/Ipsos It shows Harris 51% to 47% among registered voters (which is within the poll’s margin of error) and 52% to 46% among likely voters (outside the margin of error). Between 1 and 2% said they supported a different choice in this head-to-head matchup.
Morning Advice and Reuters/Ipsos polls also have Harris slightly ahead nationally after the debate.
The improved Democratic standing is also evident in battleground states where Harris has brought the Sun Belt back into play for Democrats, with Pennsylvania essentially jump ball.
Plus, Iowa is closer than ever Des Moines Register/Mediacom request He leads Trump by just 4 points among likely voters in the Hawkeye state. But be careful: We’ve also seen past Des Moines Register polls (in 2016 and 2020) shows that Democrats appear stronger there in September and October, which ultimately goes down for them.
Despite the Democrats’ stronger showing, the ABC News/Ipsos poll still has warning signs for Harris. shows trailing Trump in terms of economy and cost of living.
There is also a preliminary discussion New York Times/Siena College survey It found that more voters believed Trump represented change than Harris.
And then there are the memories of the 2016 and 2020 voting releases. A change of just 1-2 points in Trump’s direction could wipe out Harris’ gains. (Of course, it’s also possible that the voter turnout would swing in the other direction, benefiting Harris and his party.)
Therefore, this presidential race remains close and uncertain. Even the smallest change in numbers can change the perception of who is ahead and who is behind.
Trump rejects unity and blames Democrats after second assassination attempt
By Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon and Katherine Doyle
Former President Donald Trump and his allies are fanning the political flames after his Secret Service detail foiled what the FBI described as the second assassination attempt on him in less than 10 weeks.
In a message posted on multiple social media platforms on Monday, Trump accused his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and President Joe Biden of taking “politics in our country to a whole new level of hate.” He said their rhetoric was responsible for the threats and violence against him, even though they regularly condemn political violence and did so on Sunday.
Trump’s ally is billionaire Elon Musk he wondered in his tweet Why “no one even tries to assassinate Biden or Harris” – a post that Musk later said was a joke and was deleted.
But by Monday afternoon, it became clear that Trump and his brain trust had no intention of returning to heated rhetoric. By turning so quickly to Biden and Harris, Trump skipped past appeals for sympathy and even calls for calm or unity.
There are signs of disunity in its ranks over this approach. Some Trump allies believe the campaign missed an opportunity for unity after the first assassination attempt. Instead, Trump ramped up his anti-Harris rhetoric over the summer, coinciding with his loss in the polls.
Guests received phone calls from Mar-a-Lago, R-La., Trump friends expressing their relief, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who listened as Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe called Johnson to brief him on the incident and Actions made golf-related jokes, according to people familiar with . The scare is unlikely to interfere with Trump’s schedule or campaign plans, according to an adviser who spoke to him after Sunday’s incident.
While top campaign advisers stressed the safety of him and his aides in a message sent to staff Sunday evening, his fundraising team pressed donors to give money immediately after the event. On Monday, he repeated his claim in last week’s debate that Biden and Harris were responsible for his targeting.
“Their rhetoric makes me want to shoot,” he said in an interview with Fox News Digital, “when I’m the one saving the country, and they’re the ones destroying the country from the inside out.”
Follow live updates on the apparent assassination attempt →
🗞️ The best stories of the day
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
If you are a fan, please share with anyone and everyone. They can register here.