New Hampshire voters will head to the polls Tuesday for a primary that will set up a tie for one of only two gubernatorial races in the state this year.
On the Republican side, former Senator Kelly Ayotte is important election leader Former state Senate President Chuck Morse is up against him in the race to replace GOP Gov. Chris Sunu. As for the Democrats, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig will face Cinde Warmington, a former health care lobbyist and member of the state Executive Council. polls show it’s a relatively close race.
In addition North CarolinaNew Hampshire is the only other state running for governor this election cycle. Reproductive rights, housing costs and the opioid crisis have already emerged as top topics for November’s general election, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has Amy Walter on the subject. rated as “drop”.
Meanwhile, Cook called New Hampshire, a traditional presidential battleground, “most likely Democratic” in the race for the White House, cementing his decades-long tendency to split his voters’ tickets. This is partly because is about 40% of the state voters are registered independents.
As a result, national political trends — most notably the rise of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and the rise of reproductive rights as an activism issue — may not hold the same sway in the governor’s race as they have in other state races.
Ayotte is preparing for November
Ayotte, he has largely stayed out of electoral politics Since losing his Senate re-election campaign in 2016 by just over 1,000 votes, Morse has been in charge. Above 20 points Most of the GOP primary polls allow him to teach his vision debates and in advertisementson general elections.
Ayotte was Morse’s main line of attack throughout his campaign was not loyal enough to former President Donald Trump. Ayotte has since endorsed Trump during the “Access Hollywood” tape fiasco 2016 race. During the current period, it was initially absent formally confirm it by saying instead he will vote for the party’s candidate. After Trump became the presumptive nominee, he offered his approval.
But New Hampshire Republicans and Ayotte allies have portrayed distance from Trump as a strength in a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 2000.
“The lasting effect of Chuck Morse’s campaign is that he made Kelly look like a mainstream, traditional, traditional Republican — kind of like Chris Sununu,” said Dover City Councilman Fergus Cullen, former state GOP chairman.
“This is the kind of Republican that wins elections in New Hampshire,” added Cullen, who supports Ayotte and has been known for years as a “Never Trumper.”
New Hampshire voters have shown a tendency to split their ticket in favor of Republican gubernatorial candidates. For example, in 2016 and 2020, voters chose Sunu while also supporting Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. They also re-elected Sunuu in 2018 and 2022, strong years for Democrats nationally. Sununu declined to run for a fifth two-year term.
Republican strategists said keeping the GOP presidential nominee at bay would help him carry the state’s large swath of independent voters who dislike Trump.
“Right now, he’s being attacked in the primaries for not being loyal enough to Donald Trump. People are hearing that, and it’s true,” said Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist who has worked on New Hampshire campaigns. “He’s the leader of the Republican Party right now, but he’s shown he’s willing to stand up to him.
“I think it helps people in New Hampshire understand that Kelly Ayotte is a Republican from New Hampshire, not just one party,” Williams said.
A person close to Ayotte’s campaign said: “Kelly has been winning this primary since Day One and getting to work.”
“With such a short general election, he’s giving the Democrats an early fight on TV,” the person said.
Morse campaign manager Maya Harvey, meanwhile, predicted Morse would outperform on Tuesday, saying, “None of the public polling has happened when we started to really spend and inform voters of Kelly’s terrible record on Donald Trump.
“We’re confident that the informed voters who come out on Tuesday will stay away from Chuck and our campaign,” Harvey said.
Democratic primary
Meanwhile, Warmington and Craig are locked in a nasty Democratic primary fight with restaurateur Jon Kiper.
Craig and his allies have attacked Warmington in the past as a lobbyist for Purdue Pharma, and the broader understanding the company pushed the highly addictive OxyContin — a particularly poignant message in New Hampshire, where the opioid crisis has ravaged several rural communities.
Warmington and his allies attacked Craig for the problems Manchester was experiencing on his watch, particularly crime and homelessness.
Each campaign tried to make its opponent appear unelectable against Ayotte.
“The main issue for many voters is who will beat Kelly Ayotte. “Republicans have been saying for months how excited they are to challenge Joyce Craig’s record in Manchester because they already used that playbook in last year’s Manchester mayoral election,” Warmington campaign manager Philip Stein said. “If Cinde is our candidate, the general election will be about Kelly Ayotte’s failed record, not Joyce Craig’s.”
Craig Brown, Craig’s campaign manager, said Craig is “the only candidate who has built a sustainable campaign that is willing to change the governor’s office,” adding, “We need a Democratic candidate who can defeat Kelly Ayotte, and by all indications that candidate is Joyce Craig. .”
Many Republicans in the state said the primary weakened both Democratic candidates and put Ayotte in the driver’s seat of a fast-paced eight-week general election campaign.
“It’s been a pretty nasty race that’s going to leave a trail of criticism for the Republican nominee to pick up after it’s over,” said Williams, a Republican strategist.
Democrats focus on reproductive rights
New Hampshire Democrats have said they plan to frame Ayotte as an opponent of abortion rights, a widely supported issue in the state. according to requests.
In New Hampshire, abortion is prohibited after fetal viability or in the 24th week of pregnancy. But reproductive rights advocates point out that there is no express law on the books declaring abortion legal until then. the only New England state without legal protection of abortion rights in state law or the state constitution.
Ayotte has repeatedly expressed her support for existing reproductive rights laws. But there are Democrats and reproductive rights groups attacked him For voting in the Senate to defund Planned Parenthood and ban abortion nationwide after 20 weeks.
They also nodded to Ayotte repeatedly “sherpa” role — a term used to describe seasoned politicians who help Supreme Court nominees through the difficult confirmation process — for Neil Gorsuch after Trump nominated him to the court in 2017, saying he opposed abortion rights. Gorsuch, in 2022 Roe v. He was one of three Trumps who contributed to the cancellation of the lawsuit against Wade.
“The main back-and-forth of the general election is going to be us telling Kelly Ayotte you can’t trust abortion rights — and a lot of other issues, but abortion rights are front and center,” the Democrat said. The strategist, familiar with his race, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“The abortion attack on Ayotte has a lot of meat on the bone,” the strategist said.
Izzy Levy, spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association, said abortion will be a “major issue” in the general election.
“In the last few years, we’ve seen governors and state leadership sort of make it or break it when it comes to protecting abortion rights,” Levy said.
And Republicans predict that the eventual Democratic nominee will have a hard time portraying the existing law, championed by Ayotte, as a radical position that would make him especially vulnerable.
“New Hampshire took this compromise position that we took before the Dobbs decision, and since the Dobbs decision, we haven’t taken any steps to change that,” said Republican state House Majority Leader Jason Osborne. “I think by now the voters understand that, and they understand that Republicans have taken a very reasonable position.”