Spanish-speaking and bilingual households are more dominated by Latinos than English-speakers, according to a new survey of Latino eligible voters by Vice President Kamala Harris.
The August 3-23 poll of 3,000 Latinos found that 59% said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, compared to 32% for Trump.
But among Anglo-dominant Latino households, Harris’ lead over Trump is solidifying significantly. Just over half of English-speaking households, 51%, support Harris, while among such households, Trump’s support rises to 38%.
Follow live updates on 2024 elections
In predominantly Hispanic households, Harris attracts 64% of Latino voters, while Trump drops to 30%. In bilingual households, Latinos voted 54% for Harris and 33% for Trump.
The poll, released by UnidosUS, the largest Latino advocacy group, was conducted by Democratic polling firm BSP Research, whose co-founder Matt Baretto also polled for Harris. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 1.8%, and a quarter of respondents took the survey in Spanish.
UnidosUS has a political arm, the UnidosUS Action Fund Harris confirmed.
Clarissa Martinez de Castro, Unidos’ vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative, said Latino voters who are more comfortable with Spanish “see a higher level of alignment with the Democratic Party” when it comes to their values.
For example, when asked which party shares their values or is closer to their values when it comes to their views on the American dream, 55% of Hispanics chose the Democrats and 22% the Republicans. In English-speaking households, it was 39% Democrats and 25% Republicans. In bilingual households, the split was 39% Democrat, 33% Republican.
Martinez de Castro also noted that English-speaking households were more likely than Spanish-speaking households to report that no one from a political party, campaign or other organization had contacted them, 64% to 55%. For bilingual households, 46% said they were not contacted.
Overall, about 75% of Latinos can speak Spanish well or very well, and 63% speak Spanglish, a mixture of both languages. The Pew Research Center reported last year.
“The most pro-Democrat group is the recently naturalized, the immigrants themselves. And it declines massively in the second, third and fourth generation, said Mike Madrid, author of the book “The Latino Century” and a Republican consultant who does not support Trump. About 76% of Hispanic voters were born in the United States. According to Pew.
Madrid said the Harris campaign recognizes that because of its focus on housing and health care costs and its more moderate view of border security — which appeals to a broader swath of Latino and other voters.
“They’re talking about what Latinos want to hear,” Madrid said.
According to the NBC News exit poll, President Joe Biden, who has dropped out of this year’s presidential race amid poor polling numbers, has 65% of the total Latin American vote in 2020, compared to Trump’s 32%.
But his numbers were severely lagging after a disastrous debate performance, as were the other groups. A Pew Research Center survey in July found it It was tied with Trump among Hispanics 36% registered voters.
Roberto Suro, a professor of journalism and public policy at the University of Southern California, said general polling of Hispanics showed that Harris “righted the boat” as he did in other constituencies. But, he added, “59% is not a good number for a Latino Democrat,” Suro said.
“Harris has made up most of the ground that Biden has lost over the last year,” he said. “But it’s still very much a horse race, and he’s not necessarily ahead,” because he has yet to match the 65% share of Latino voters that Biden captured in 2020.
For more from NBC Latino, sign up for our weekly newsletter.