Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise to the top of the Democratic Party has forced former President Donald Trump to spend significantly more this year on the single state his campaign has played a defensive role: North Carolina.
Since early August, the Trump campaign and its joint fundraising committees have spent at least $7.4 million on ads in the Tar Heel State, according to AdImpact tracking. That’s nearly $3 million more than Harris and his joint fundraising committees spent during the same period. That’s the most the Trump team has spent on ads in any state since the beginning of the month, narrowly beating out Pennsylvania.
According to AdImpact tracking, pro-Trump spending in the state exceeded $11.2 million during that period, while pro-Harris spending was about $7.6 million.
Certainly, with two large media markets that include Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina is not a cheap state to advertise in. Other Trump-supporting fringe groups spent more in other battleground states, making it less necessary for the Trump team to allocate resources. there.
But given that North Carolina is the only key swing state where both parties actively contested this cycle, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020, Harris’ team sees the influx of spending and attention here as evidence that GOP rivals are increasingly nervous. the state has 16 electoral votes in its column.
“They’re right to be concerned,” Dan Kanninen, Harris’ campaign director, told NBC News, noting that Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 percentage points in 2020, the narrowest of the states. “I think they know this is a state that could go blue and they have to feel like they have to win it to get back to the White House. “We also feel that North Carolina is an important and incredibly important state for us.”
“This could very well be a swing state,” he said, “there are six or seven seats that are really, really tight. So to me, North Carolina is as important as any of them. … The Trump campaign clearly sees that and they are probably worried about that.”
But Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes said the campaign’s increased investment in North Carolina should not be seen as unusual.
“Our investments in North Carolina reflect what we’ve always said,” he said. “We will take the fight to the battlefield and win.”
Candidates’ visits to the state are also increasing. On Wednesday, Trump pulled his hood the second major event Last week, he traveled to Asheboro with his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, to speak in the state on national security. During the rally, Trump said that his campaign’s “main focus is not to get out the vote, but to make sure they don’t cheat. Because we have all the votes we need.”
The trip comes a week after Trump stopped in Asheville for a speech billed as an economic policy address. Vance also held separate North Carolina events earlier this month that were postponed due to weather.
“They say it’s the most important issue,” Trump said during economic output last week. “I think the crime is there. I think that’s where the line is, personally. We have many important issues, because our country has become a third world country.
Harris gave a major economic policy address Friday in Raleigh.
“Two days ago, Donald Trump was in North Carolina,” he said. “He said he was going to talk about the economy. I think you all saw it. You know what I mean, but he hasn’t offered any serious plans to lower costs for middle-class families, and he hasn’t had a plan to expand access to housing or health care. And that actually, I don’t think, came as a surprise to most of us because we already know his plans. We know the Project 2025 agenda.”
The poll shows a race in North Carolina that has swung sharply in Harris’s favor since President Joe Biden dropped out last month, but it’s still neck and neck between the two major party candidates. New York Times/Siena College A poll of likely voters this month found Harris leading by margin in the state both in a head-to-head matchup with Trump and in a five-way contest that included third-party candidates.
And a request Cook Political Report with Amy Walter A multi-candidate poll in North Carolina showed Harris 2 points ahead of Trump, a 10-point gap from a May poll of a Biden-Trump matchup there.
Harris did better in North Carolina than in Nevada and Georgia, the two states Biden carried in 2020, in the NYT/Siena and Cook polls.
“I feel like it’s 2008,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told NBC News’ Tom Llamas, referring to Barack Obama’s victory in the state. “We are an attacking state. They will protect everything they want in 2020. This is the state they want to achieve. It was their closest loss of 2020. “He can win North Carolina because people are excited.”
The influx of new spending comes as the Trump campaign spent relatively little on the battleground map until last month. In North Carolina, Biden, Harris and their joint fundraising groups spent $12.8 million on ads from the beginning of 2024 through the end of July, while Trump and his joint committees spent less than $200,000, according to AdImpact. More broadly, pro-Trump groups spent $1.1 million, compared to $13.5 million for Democratic groups.
One Trump ally, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the recent spending spree, called it “smart” and “preventive.”
North Carolina is “tough for a Democrat to win, but you still have to make a game there, and it’s going to be at several points,” this person said.
Democrats He began to pay close attention to North Carolina very early in the year, given that it was a swing situation, they felt they had a chance to turn it around. Harris himself has made seven trips to the state this year, his campaign said, opening 23 offices across the state and a team of more than 170 staff. In 2020, Biden did not visit the state until September.
In addition, the campaign said it has seen a huge increase in volunteer registrations since Harris’ promotion. Meanwhile, a Trump campaign official said their state operations so far include 65 paid staffers, more than 50 aligned campaign offices and north of 150 paid canvassers working at allied organizations.
More broadly, Democrats see an influx of young Americans — particularly around the Research Triangle anchored by Raleigh — and demographic shifts in the state as favorable for their candidates. They also point to down-ballot candidates like Lt. Governor. Mark Robinsona right-wing Trump aide running for governor is helpful to their work and messaging in the state.
“We’ve seen overall population growth of about 4% since 2020, and people moving into the state, registering to vote, generally those trends would favor the vice president,” said a Harris campaign official. condition of anonymity.
Still, Republicans have long been successful in winning statewide federal races. At the presidential level, Obama is the only Democrat to win the state in the last 40 years. Biden came closest to everyone in 2020.
“I wouldn’t read too much into it,” Jonathan Felts, a longtime Republican from North Carolina who heads a pro-Robinson super PAC, said in a text message about the Trump campaign’s influx of new spending there. “NC will always be one of the top seven battlegrounds and is in demand [Republicans] spend some money. Sure, cutting the top of the ticket and installing Harris helped narrow the enthusiasm gap for Democrats, but Harris still doesn’t send a better message to NC Democrats in rural North Carolinians.
“This race could get tighter after the Democrats shuffle their deckchairs, but here in NC, whether it’s HMS Biden or HMS Harris, it’s still going to be a sinking ship on Election Day,” he said. “Harris doesn’t inspire rural voters to vote like Obama did in 1908 when he won the US by a landslide of 0.32%.”
Trump also promoted several veterans of the North Carolina race to his national team: Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley used to lead the North Carolina state party, and RNC co-chair Lara Trump is from the state. A major Republican donor with ties to Trump said the party won’t let the state get away with it.
“The polls are slipping in North Carolina, but I can’t imagine — look, the RNC is basically leading North Carolina with Whatley and Lara Trump,” said the donor, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “I can’t see any of them willing to sacrifice North Carolina.”
Trump ads Broadcast in North Carolina Attacking Harris on immigration, calling him the Biden administration’s “border king” and describing him as “failed, weak, dangerously liberal” and even “blood on hands.”
Harris campaign ads They tried to improve their record on immigration and crime and the current situation voters with resumes.
“Kamala Harris Has Been Fighting Violent Crime For Decades” an ad starts. “As border state prosecutor, he took down drug cartels and arrested gang members for smuggling guns and drugs across the border. As vice president, he sponsored the toughest border control bill in decades.
Kanninen, who ran Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign in North Carolina, said Harris’ focus on the state will increase as the election approaches.
“We were expecting a close race in the Tar Heel State,” he said. “We’ve built a campaign all year designed to win a close race.”