The gender gap widens in the Harris-Trump contest: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray analyzes the widening gender gap in the poll between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Plus, we’re reporting on what vice-presidential candidate and Kentucky governor Andy Beshear’s stance on abortion rights looks like on second glance.

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The gender gap is widening in the Harris-Trump race

By Mark Murray

Since President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race, many national and battleground state polls have found a closer race than we saw after his dismal debate performance.

But these polls reveal another important dynamic: the huge gender gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — in some cases even bigger than the gap between 2016 and 2020.

Take it last New York Times/Siena College survey. Harris leads Trump by 14 points (55%-41%) among likely female voters, and Trump by 17 points (56%-39%) among likely men. That’s a 31-point gender gap.

The last one is bigger Survey at Quinnipiac University, where women favor Harris by 16 points (56%-40%) and men by 23 points (60%-37%) for Trump. (Note: The Quinnipiac poll was conducted before and after Biden dropped out of the 2024 race.) That’s a 39-point gender gap.

Compare that to the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton, when NBC News found a net gender gap in exit polls. 24 points. In 2020, this figure was the same in the exit poll conducted after the Biden-Trump contest 23 points.

Now, other recent surveys show that the gender gap is even smaller. CNN national survey Harris and Trump were 16 points to one point NPR/PBS/Marist it was only 4 points.

And keep in mind that demographic deep dives like these have larger margins of error — so the numbers will vary from survey to survey.

But overall, these new polls highlight that the widening gender gap could be a significant factor in the new Harris-Trump race, with Trump’s lead among men looking larger than Harris’ lead among women.

Veepstakes: Beshear’s abortion record gets fresh scrutiny

By Adam Edelman, Yamiche Alcindor, Amanda Terkel, Sahil Kapoor, Alex Seitz-Wald

One of the Governor of Kentucky. Andy BeshearHer strength in the race to be Harris’ running mate is that she can appeal to centrist voters as a re-elected Democrat in a state where Donald Trump won more than 20 percent of the vote.

Beshear narrowly won the 2023 campaign based on his support for abortion rights in a state where the procedure is almost completely banned. However, for some reproductive rights advocates in Kentucky, Beshear has not done enough on an issue critical to the party nationally — one that could affect her chances of joining the presidential ticket.

“The low bar here doesn’t help him,” said Savannah Trebuna, director of the abortion fund Kentucky Health Justice Network, a Louisville-based reproductive rights organization, referring to the Democratic governor’s expectations in the red state.

“Yes, he’s doing better than a conservative, and I’m grateful for that,” he said. “But I’m worried about how this record will look on the national stage.”

Critics point to Bashar’s selection of self-proclaimed “pro-privacy” Democrat Jacqueline Coleman as his lieutenant governor; his focus on rare exceptions when talking about abortion; and that his administration has shied away from working closely with reproductive rights groups in the state.

During her first gubernatorial campaign in 2019, Beshear’s allies clashed behind the scenes with reproductive rights groups over what message to display in the ads, with Beshear’s team wanting to focus less on abortion and more on the unpopular Republican president. effort.

The question is whether Beshear’s approach will be a liability by muddying the Democrats’ message, or a benefit by having a governor in a red state who wins on this issue.

“I think everyone is looking for the perfect candidate. There is no such thing,” said former Rep. John Yarmouth, D-Ky. “At this point, the voters who are convinced are not the problem voters. If you’re a problem voter, you’ve already made up your mind. They’re more visceral voters, and that’s why I think Andy has a lot of power – because he reeks of empathy.”

Read more at Beshear →

More on Harris’ search for a running mate:

• In Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Democrats see a potential VP who can strengthen the “blue wall”. By Adam Edelman
• “Ultimate Team Player:” Why Some Democrats Think North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper Is Harris’ Best VP PickBy Alex Seitz-Wald

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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