DETROIT – When President Joe Biden held a rally here last week and absorbed the adoration of his supporters, many prominent Michigan Democrats joined him — with one notable exception: Elissa Slotkin, the party’s primary candidate in the Senate race.
The rally came amid an intra-party debate over whether Biden should remain the Democratic nominee or step aside after the upset. debate performance and polls show him narrowly trailing Donald Trump nationally and in key states. Slotkin said only that it was Biden’s decision; his campaign said he was conflicted about the plan and would not be able to attend.
“We’ve been saying from day one that this is going to be one of the closest Senate races in the country,” said Slotkin campaign spokesman Antoine Givens. “That’s why we’ve built a grassroots campaign designed to highlight the contrast between Elissa’s record of representation for middle-class Michiganders and any of her Republican rivals.”
Slotkin’s absence from the Biden rally comes amid concern among Democrats, who party strategists believe he will outperform Biden but worry he could drag them down. But ticket-splitters — those who vote for a different party for president rather than down-ballot candidates — are a dwindling breed. In dozens of contested Senate races during the past two presidential elections, only one state has produced split results: Maine in 2020, which voted for Biden and centrist GOP Sen. Susan Collins. No state split the vote in 2016.
“There are definitely ticket-splitters,” said Abby Clark, a Democratic organizer and former campaign aide in Detroit who called on Biden to drop out. “But generally these tides rise and fall together. Michigan is always very crowded. A real collapse in support for the top of the ticket will have a huge impact on all other races.”
“Even if Slotkin goes ahead of the president – how far can one go?” Clark said. “There’s a strong fear of the situation you’re in and what that means.”
Democratic candidates are trailing Biden
Polls taken before and after the June 27 debate paint a consistent picture: In key states, Democratic Senate candidates are doing well and have wide leads over their GOP rivals, while Biden is either hot on Trump or trailing him with the same set of voters. In some more recent polls, Biden has trailed other Democrats by as much as 5 points in double digits.
Michigan, recent EPIC-MRA request Biden trailed Trump by 3 points, while Slotkin led Republican Senate front-runner and former congressman Mike Rogers by 2 points — both within the margin of error.
Slotkin kept his distance from Biden, but Rogers embraced his party’s candidate and promised to “fight with Donald Trump” if he is elected at the Republican convention this week. Rogers spokesman Chris Gustafson linked Slotkin to Biden, saying: “For all the problems Joe Biden has caused for hard-working Michigan families, his debate performance has to be the most embarrassing thing about Elissa Slotkin still endorsing him.”
Biden dismissed fears that he could hurt the ticket, pointing to the Democrats’ overperformance in the 2022 midterms and special elections since taking office. His campaign predicted the party would win up and down the ballot.
“Democrats led by Joe Biden have an incredible agenda to pursue. Every day of this era, Republicans are being forced to answer for their support of abortion bans, job outsourcing, and undermining of our democracy,” Biden campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg told NBC News. important issues will be decided, so the Democrats will win this November.”
Still, Democrats like Slotkin can’t abandon Biden entirely at the risk of upsetting the core voters who still passionately support him and demand the same from members of his party. At Biden’s rally in Detroit, some voters praised Slotkin and said there should be room for him to run, but others said they would not welcome candidates who show disloyalty to the president.
Deanna Zapico, a Biden supporter who came to the rally from Royal Oak, Michigan on Friday, praised Slotkin.
“Love him. He’s a really strong candidate,” Zapico said, adding that he believes in Slotkin’s decision not to campaign with Biden. “If he has to do it, he should do it. This is a good. If he was here, he could have helped him.”
But rally attendee Lakshmi Vadlamudi of Franklin, Michigan, said she was “extremely angry” at Democrats calling for Biden to drop out of the race.
Slotkin said that he did not make such a call Detroit News asks voters to enter the question.
Asked about Slotkin skipping the Detroit rally, Vadlamudi said he would be “skeptic about anyone” in down-ballot races where the president is not with him, and that such calls only weaken the party.
“Dramatic decline in Biden’s numbers” from 2020
In Pennsylvania, New York Times/Siena request Biden trailed Trump by 3 points (within the margin of error), while Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led GOP challenger David McCormick by 3 points. 8 points among likely voters (outside the margin).
“It’s really early, so people aren’t focused,” Casey told NBC News when asked why he believes he’s ahead of Biden in the Pennsylvania polls.
He added that he prefers not to “analyze” the vote and simply make his case as a candidate. “We’re in a tough race,” Casey said.
Bipartisan Fabrizio/Impact in Wisconsin request Biden trailed Trump by 6 points, while Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin led GOP challenger Eric Howden by 5 points, both margin of error.
In a more obvious example, Times/Siena request From Democratic-leaning Virginia, it found Biden leading Trump by just 3 points (within the margin of error), while Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine led GOP challenger Hung Cao by 17 points.
That leaves several possible scenarios in the three-and-a-half months until Election Day. One is that the “double haters” of both presidential candidates are returning to Biden, and his numbers are approaching those of other Democratic candidates. Another is that Biden is an anvil driving Democrats down. And the third is that the picture is largely reflected, and 2024 creates the most common ticket distribution of the decade.
Jessica Taylor, who monitors Senate races for the nonpartisan forecaster Cook Political Report, said the difference is due to a decline in Biden’s support. Cook recently changed his rating for the Michigan Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “throwaway.”
“We haven’t seen Trump’s numbers change much since 2020. What we’ve seen is a dramatic drop in Biden’s numbers,” Taylor said. “Watch the debate and the freeze — I totally understand why the Democratic candidates in the Senate don’t want to go with Biden.”