MILWAUKEE — Hours after an assassin shot former President Donald Trump in the ear, Panfilo DiCenzo, a 40-year-old Democrat from Pittsburgh, drew a simple conclusion about the attack’s political impact: “It’s definitely good for Trump.”
DiCenzo reasoned that undecided voters “may be more likely to vote for him because of his sympathy,” and “especially with the shakeup in the Democratic Party, you know, more and more people are a little confused about who to vote for.”
As President Joe Biden struggles to shore up support with his fellow countrymen after a dismal debate performance in June and a shaky purge effort, some professional Democratic political operatives said Saturday’s shooting would seal the incumbent’s electoral fate.
“We’re too far out,” said one longtime Democratic insider, noting that the image of Trump raising his fist in the air and dramatically smearing blood on his face would be indelible.
“The presidential race ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic consultant who spoke on condition of anonymity to give an honest assessment of his party’s position less than four months before the election.
“Now is the time to focus on trying to hold the Senate and take the House,” he said. “The only positive thing that came out of last night for the Democrats is that we are no longer talking about Joe Biden’s age today.”
A spokesman for the Biden campaign did not respond to NBC News’ request for comment on how the assassination attempt on Trump might affect the dynamics of their rematch. A White House spokesman declined to comment.
But in nearly a dozen interviews with Democratic strategists, operatives, aides and voters, there was a clear divide between Democrats who believe the assassination attempt will help Trump and those who say it won’t change much. Few suggested it would improve Biden’s chances.
Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for former President Barack Obama, said neither the shooting nor the debate will ultimately reshape the race that has been close all along. In particular, he said, there will be no drastic change among swing voters, whose preferences are important in states that decide the election.
“A middle-class, suburban, college-educated mother worried about how she’s going to pay for her daughter’s college and whether she’s going to have as many rights in her daughter’s life as she has in her life — does the shooting make her go away?” Oh, my God! I will vote for Trump!” No,” he said.
A Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on Capitol Hill said Trump’s physical targeting takes away from Biden’s main argument against the former president. The strategist noted that Biden tried to convince voters that Trump is so extreme that he poses a threat to democracy.
“That message is dead,” the strategist said after a gunman tried to kill the presumptive candidate of one of the two major parties. Trump’s shot “probably saved Biden’s candidacy” and “doomed him to re-election,” freezing Democratic calls to oust him.
Adam Green, co-founder of the Campaign Committee for Progressive Change, echoed that sentiment.
“I am deeply concerned that the net effect of the Republican Convention will be to neutralize the core democratic criticism of Trump, a criminal who incites violent insurgency, seeks to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power, and says the Constitution may need to be abolished. ,” he said.
“There’s a race to legitimize Trump’s criticism of democracy,” Green said, “and we all need to make it clear now that protecting democracy is the exact opposite of political violence.”
Most of those who questioned whether Trump would benefit politically from the assassination attempt — and his reaction to it — found their views counterintuitive, or at least at odds with the majority of Democrats in their circles.
One Biden ally said a close call on Trump would strengthen his base without bringing him new voters. Biden has responded to the chaotic times by showing steady leadership, the ally said, predicting that Biden will take a break from campaigning during the Republican convention this week.
A second veteran Democratic strategist said his first impression was that the firing would help Trump, but he said he was reconsidering.
“Politically, the idea that this will help Trump is flawed. I think it reminds us that he is a chaos creator,” the strategist said. “This is when we need someone to bring us together.”
He added that he believes there is a political risk to Republicans if convention speakers repeat past calls for retaliation against Trump instead of breaking down his rhetoric.
A Democratic operative with experience as a senior presidential campaign adviser predicted “somewhat of an immediate hit” for Trump with certain demographics. “But I think the race remains where it always is. As crazy as it sounds, we still have many months to go.”
The detective said it was “so strange” that “a lot of people on my side are firmly in the camp. [Biden] can’t win’, describing it as ‘vibes analysis’ without a ‘rational basis’.
Public opinion polls have shown that the election is tightly contested in enough swing states that either candidate can command a majority of the Electoral College.
A Trump spokesman did not respond to NBC News’ request for comment on whether the campaign considered the assassination attempt a campaign asset. But Trump used an already iconic photo of him raising his fist in the air while surrounded by his bodyguards at a fundraising address on Sunday. A full-color American flag appears in the background of the black-and-white version of the photo used for the donation. The words “Never give up” are written at the top of the image.
For a veteran of Democratic congressional campaigns, this picture says it all.
“The obvious effect of this assassination attempt is that it has officially removed Donald Trump from politics and led him to martyrdom,” this person said. “They’re framing it as an attack on MAGA, not Trump — even stronger. This is literally biblical material we’re talking about.”
Democrats “will never be able to compete with this level of enthusiasm among base voters,” the person said. “So we f—ed with Biden even more. … Relying on Trump as a strengthening, unifying enemy will not work either.”