Concerns over an increase in threats of violence and an increase in the number of violent attacks on politicians were noted on Saturday. the gunman killed at least one person in an assassination attempt former President Donald Trump.
The shooting immediately sparked concerns that the already heated election cycle would lead to more violence.
“In a country where many Americans do not believe their democracy is healthy or particularly functional, and where the vast majority of Americans believe domestic political opposition is out to destroy it, this is the worst that can happen. It’s happening in this environment,” political scientist and Eurasia Group president Jan Bremmer said in a video posted online shortly after the shooting.
Bremmer added that he was “deeply concerned that it portends more political violence and social instability to come.”
Professor Robert Pape, director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago, said in an email that a national poll he helped conduct in June found that 10% of American adults agree that “the use of force to stop Donald Trump is justified.” . from being president,” one-third own a gun.
“We should also be concerned about threats to impeach President Biden. Our poll shows that 7% (18 million) of American adults support efforts to return Trump to the presidency, half of whom own a gun,” Pape said.
“Political leaders from both parties and at all levels of government—the President, Senate and House leadership, governors and mayors should immediately condemn political violence From which side of politics it is,” he added.
In recent years, political scientists and extremism experts have been warning increasing political polarization coincided with threats and acts of violence becoming a common part of the US political sphere.
Various surveys and studies have documented an increase in such threats, including those directed at local officials. Brennan Center announced the report in January With 43% of state legislators and 18% of local officials reporting being threatened, it’s not just prominent national politicians who face the most threats. West Point’s Counterterrorism Center Federal charges of threatening public officials have risen sharply in recent years — a trend that has continued.
“A preliminary look at cases in 2023 and 2024 suggests that the number of federal indictments is on pace to reach a new record,” the West Point study said.
Eric Nisbet, a professor of policy analysis and communication at Northwestern University who studies political violence, said in an email that threats of violence to politicians at all levels of government are on the rise.
“Since 2016, there has been a huge increase in political threats against elected officials from both Democrats and Republicans — at all levels and functions of government, including federal, state and local,” he said.
In 2017 Deputy Steve Scalise was shot While practicing for the congressional softball game. Scalise was the third-ranking Republican in the House at the time. A few men in Michigan in 2020 conspired to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer and a suspect wielding a hammer He attacked Nancy Pelosi’s husband In 2022 at their home in San Francisco.
Nisbet warned that threats of violence have become normalized in US politics, noting that a national poll conducted by Northwestern shows that both parties are beginning to accept violence.
“Our own national poll conducted by Northwestern University’s Center for Communication and Public Policy shortly after the 2022 midterm elections found that equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans were justified in threatening political leaders of the other party, at least in some cases, and an equal number within each party. revealed. Every reported political violence was justified to pursue their own political goals,” he said.
Some political scientists have warned that growing frustration and skepticism toward elected officials and government as a whole will only accelerated the adoption of violence.
Katherine Keneally, director of threat analysis at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a nonprofit that studies extremism, said many threats come from individuals inspired by false or misleading information.
“Unfortunately, what we’re seeing is an increase in threats against officers based on false and/or misleading narratives, as well as political or religious differences,” he said. The assailant is unknown, we see threats against officers by people who are not affiliated with any extremist group, but are instead inspired by conspiracy theories, misinformation, and differences in political ideologies. Again, little is known, but political violence in all its forms must be condemned.”