WASHINGTON – The Supreme Court’s ruling in Roe v. Two years after the decision to overturn the Wade case forced advocates to rethink their message on abortion, Democrats are leaning on the issue in hopes of swaying enough swing voters to propel President Joe Biden to a second term.
But it’s unclear whether Democrats will be able to muster enough conservative-leaning votes to keep them in the Oval Office in a close election that could be decided on a number of issues, including some that voters consider more important than abortion.
According to Planned Parenthood data provided to NBC News, nearly 28 million women of reproductive age live in states with partial or total abortion bans. Several states with partial bans could be decisive for November presidential candidates, including Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Democrats have followed candidates and positions that support abortion rights win again and again in purple and even red states. Now, with voters less than five months away from voting, pro-abortion rights advocates are trying to replicate that success across the country.
Campaigns work to create contrast
Biden on Monday laid the blame for Roe’s demise squarely at the feet of former President Donald Trump, saying Trump was “solely responsible for this nightmare.”
“The results have been devastating: in states across the country, Trump’s allies have enacted bans on extreme and dangerous abortions — many except for rape or consanguinity — that put women’s lives at risk and threaten doctors with prison terms,” Biden said.
Biden’s re-election campaign is in full swing in its second anniversary, hosting dozens of campaign events in swing states. All events are trying to frame the November election as a decision between one candidate who defends abortion rights and another who attacks them.
First lady Jill Biden traveled to the vital state of Pennsylvania on Sunday, continuing on Monday. Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign in Arizona on Monday.
The Democratic National Committee also said in a memo shared with NBC News that it is investing at least $8.3 million across state parties this year.
The budget includes a 25% increase from 2020 to “ensure voters are aware of Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans’ attack on reproductive rights,” the memo says.
In a split-screen moment, Trump acknowledged his role in the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling on Saturday. He also singled out the three Supreme Court justices he nominated — Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — all of whom opposed Roe’s precedent.
“We’ve done an amazing thing,” Trump said in a speech before the Christian Faith and Freedom Coalition in Washington on Saturday.
Trump changed his position on abortion for decades, at one point describing himself as “pro-choice” and at another point proposing to punish women who seek abortions. He said whether or not would support national abortion ban. On Saturday, he reiterated his support for exceptions to abortion in cases of rape or consanguinity, or when the woman’s life is in danger.
John Conway, director of strategy for Republican Voters Against Trump, told NBC News that some voters believe Trump will “move to where it’s politically expedient on the abortion issue.”
“I think some of them made a strong case for the fact that Trump’s justices were responsible for overturning Roe and Wade,” Conway said, referring to the conversations he observed in the focus groups.
“But I think the Biden campaign needs to continue to highlight this particular moment to make a case against Donald Trump when it comes to abortion, because it’s harder to pin down his personal position. Abortion at any time,” he added.
Democrats are trying to convert swing voters
Abortion has proven to be a mobilizing issue even in red-leaning states. After the Dobbs decision, abortion rights activists won a victory Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and other states.
But it’s unclear whether Biden will have similar success in a closely fought presidential race. Moment NBC News survey found that only 6% of registered voters in April viewed abortion as the most important issue facing the country.
23 percent of voters cited inflation as the most important issue, followed by immigration and the border situation, threats to democracy, jobs and the economy.
In Engaging’ Swing Picker Project Focus groups of North Carolinians who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, 11 out of 12 participants In November, they agreed that abortion would be a significant part of their decision on who to withdraw for.
Michelle, 55, of Candler, North Carolina, said one focus group participant, “I have a daughter, and I’ve been through this experience myself, and I’m very much an advocate for women.” “And I think once they take that away, they’re going to come up with a whole different set of rights for women next time.”
But Michelle, whose last name was not used in the focus group, said she would vote for Biden “if it’s my only choice,” adding that she wouldn’t be happy. Michelle said Biden will pick Kennedy in a five-way race between Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Swing Voter Project moderator Rich Thaw told NBC News, “The question is what’s more palatable to them: the Dobbs decision or the prospect of four more years of Biden.” “So if they don’t like the Dobbs decision any more, they’re going to hold their noses and vote for Biden.” If it’s Biden, they’ll be more tolerant of the Dobbs decision, even though they say they oppose it.
Advertisements highlight prominent cases
Democrats and pro-abortion rights groups have spent money to highlight the impact of the Dobbs decision, and some ads are calculated to make or break a candidate’s prospects.
Hadley Duvall was featured in a viral ad last year for Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s re-election bid. In the announcement, Duvall spoke was raped by her stepfather and spoke for access to abortion.
Beshear won and thanked him in his victory speech. Now, Duvall is speaking out again ahead of the November election.
“If you have a woman in your life who means something to you, her life is in danger,” he said in the election. In an MSNBC interview along with vice president.
Like Duvall, Amanda Zurawski he said he nearly died after doctors intervened. refused to have an abortion When her water breaks at 18 weeks.
Zurawski lived in Texas, where abortion is illegal with few exceptions. Now her parents are speaking out new advertisements By the abortion rights organization Free & Just.
In the two ads, first shared with NBC News, Zurawski’s parents, Mike and Cheri Eid, described feeling like they were “about to lose” their daughter. The couple stressed that “a national abortion ban would be devastating for all families.”
“You can’t change what happened in their story,” Zurawski’s mother told NBC News. He added that he hopes that by speaking out, “we can change the narrative and we can change other people’s stories.”
The ad is part of the group’s $1.5 million television and radio advertising investment in Wisconsin and Ohio.
“Our granddaughter was tortured for three days,” Zurawski’s father told NBC News when Zurawski was denied an abortion despite her extreme complications. “Is it pro-life? Is this mercy?”
In the ad, Zurawski’s parents say they are conservative. Mike Eid told NBC News that he thinks “Republicans need to wake up” on the issue of abortion.
Free & Just’s director of major campaigns, Veronica Ingham, said abortion is a cross-party issue.
“When you see people from your community talking about it, I think it’s easier to relate,” Ingham said. “And I still think that’s why it’s really important to have a wide variety of messengers.”