Why the ‘double haters’ of 2024 are different: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray explains how the “double haters” of the 2024 race differ from the 2016 and 2020 elections. Plus, we head to Virginia’s 5th District, where House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Goode faces a GOP primary challenger backed by Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy.

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Meet the ‘double haters’ of 2024 – and why they’re ready to take over

By Mark Murray

So-called double-haters—those who hold negative views of the presidential candidates of both major parties—are an important group of swing voters, and for good reason.

In 2016, they broke for According to the results of a poll conducted by NBC News, Donald Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton by about 20 points. In 2020, they are swung for According to AP VoteCast, Joe Biden over Trump. (NBC News exit poll actually showed Trump won twice as many haters in 2020, even though they represented only 3% of all voters.)

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But NBC News’ combined poll of the 2024 race tells two important stories about these voters: First, they’re very different from the two-time haters of 2016 and 2020. Second, they are ready for a complete takeover between Biden and Trump.

In 2016, a combined NBC News poll found that binaural haters made up 18% of all voters polled during that election cycle. They were disproportionately Republican (43% identified as Republican, 28% as Democrat, and 21% as independent). They were very conservative and moderate. And they favored the GOP’s control of Congress over Democrats by 15 points, 50% to 35%.

Think of these binary haters as mostly Republicans who don’t like Trump but voted for him anyway.

However, combined NBC News polls in 2020 showed Trump and Biden double-haters at just 6% of the electorate—due to Biden being a more popular figure than Clinton in 2016 and Trump being more popular among the majority. More GOP voters than four years ago.

Unlike in 2016, the majority (51%) of those haters of the two were Democrats (compared to 15% Republicans and 20% independents). They were mostly liberal and moderate. And they held Democratic control of Congress over the GOP by 47 points.

Think of these dual haters as voters who largely supported Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Democratic primary season and ultimately voted for Biden in the general election, according to AP VoteCast.

Unlike 2016 and 2020, NBC News’ combined poll for 2024 finds this era’s double-haters split evenly between self-identified Democrats (31%), Republicans (31%) and independents (28%). Most describe themselves as moderate.

And their advantage in congress is the jump ball. 45 percent of those hating the duo want Republicans to control Congress, while 43 percent want Democrats in charge.

Bottom line: According to our poll, they’re totally up for grabs in November.

From Trump to McCarthy, Republicans lined up against the Freedom Caucus chairman in his primary

By Ali Vitali, Bridget Bowman and Kyle Stewart

GOOCHLAND, Va. – Rep. Tuesday’s primary vote for Bob Goode is more than the next member of Congress representing Virginia’s 5th District.

“The nation is watching,” the Virginia Republican told a few dozen supporters gathered outside the historic county courthouse on a balmy Thursday. He warned that this race is about “the D.C. establishment swamp that wants to take your place.”

Good, who chairs the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, has told supporters that he is a prime target of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy as he seeks to oust the small group of Republicans who ousted him late last year. McCarthy’s first attempt was unsuccessful last week by South Carolina’s Nancy Mace won first place.

But McCarthy is just one player running against Goode in a race that could see him become the first member of Congress to lose to a primary opponent this year. He also has the most important support in Republican politics working against him: former President Donald Trump.

Trump Qudun confirmed his opponent, state Sen. John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL and Stop the Steal rally participant, late last month. The former president, who supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential election, wrote on social media that Goode “has been constantly attacking and fighting me up until recently.”

Trump is holding a telethon for McGuire on Monday night, and he appeared 15 second TV commercial To reinforce McGuire. His endorsement could sway some voters who are skeptical of Good in the deep red district that stretches from the Richmond suburbs to the state’s southern border.

“I’ve had a lot of people say, ‘I don’t know anything about you, I haven’t mentioned it before, but Trump supports you, I have,'” McGuire told NBC News.

Goode is clearly sensitive to Trump’s endorsement of his opponent, telling NBC News before a brief interview that everyone knows Trump is endorsing his opponent — as if to gloss over any question about it.

Declaring himself “behind President Trump,” Goode added, “I’m sure the president will support me on June 19 after we win.”

Read more about Good’s main battle →

For now, that’s it from The Politics Desk. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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