The GOP’s post-election challenge: Turning Trump voters into full-fledged Republicans: From the Politics Desk

Individual candidate and campaign dynamics can certainly explain some of this. In Arizona, for example, Republican Kari Lake’s broad popularity clearly gave Democrat Ruben Gallego an extra boost, who actually received more votes than Vice President Kamala Harris did at the top of the party ticket.

But taken as a whole, the overall pattern is striking—especially in light of recent history. In the previous two presidential elections, only one state had a White House/Senate split. That was in Maine in 2020, when voters reelected Republican Sen. Susan Collins while supporting Democrat Joe Biden for president.

Several factors are likely at work here, but two stand out as potential long-term problems for the GOP.

The first involves voters who are eager to support Trump but then skip all the other races on the ballot. There is some evidence for this. My colleague Scott Bland found that in Nevada’s second-largest Washoe County, 6.6% of Trump voters either skipped the Senate race or went with a third-party candidate (or used the state’s unique “none of these candidates” option. ) . Meanwhile, 4.9% of Harris voters did the same.

That’s only a small fraction of the GOP’s drop in Nevada, but it’s a finding consistent with one feature of this year’s NBC News poll. We found that Trump did best with rare voters (with a 15-point lead among nonvoters in 2020) who expressed lower levels of interest in the election and were disproportionately young, non-white, and male. It’s plausible that a significant number of these people are “Trump-only” voters, which raises the question of whether the GOP can turn them into full-fledged Republican voters in a future where Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Another factor the GOP must address involves Democratic defectors — Democratic voters who have traditionally ruled out Trump.

It seems to have worked in Wisconsin, where Trump won by about 30,000 votes, even as Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected by about the same margin. There was a fall from Trump to his party’s Senate candidate (Erik Hovde). it manifests itself mostly in rural areas and blue-collar districtsmany were Democratic territory until Trump emerged. Here, Trump expanded his support, which was key to his statewide victory, but those gains did not make it down the ballot.

Republicans will have to find a way to do it without Trump in the future.

Trump’s nomination as Secretary of Defense is in jeopardy in the Senate

By Courtney Kube, Frank Thorp V, Ryan Nobles and Garrett Haake

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Defense Department, Pete Hegsett, is in jeopardy as Senate Republicans grow increasingly concerned about reports about him. allegedly drinking and treatment of women.

As new revelations about the former Fox News host’s background continue to emerge, six Senate Republicans, perhaps more, are currently uneasy about supporting Hexeth’s bid to lead the Pentagon, three Republican sources with direct knowledge of his nomination process told NBC News. . Given the slim Republican majority in the Senate in the next Congress, Hexeth could only lose three GOP votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him.

Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, who sits on the Armed Services Committee, would not commit to endorsing Hegseth’s nomination and said she planned to discuss reports of his alleged alcohol abuse, mistreatment of women and financial mismanagement.

Ernst said of Hegseth’s nomination process: “We’re just going to have a frank and thorough conversation.

Hegseth, an Army National Guard veteran, was accused of sexually assaulting a woman in California in 2017. according to a police report Trump went public after announcing that he would nominate the former Fox host for secretary of defense. Hegseth has not pressed charges and denied the woman’s allegations, saying the meeting was consensual, although she paid for it. an undisclosed amount as part of the settlement with him.

Separately, NBC News reported on Tuesday According to 10 current and former Fox employees, Hegsett’s drinking was a concern for his colleagues at Fox News. Two of them said Hexeth smelled of alcohol more than a dozen times before going on air. Hegseth did not respond to requests for comment on the allegations Tuesday evening at the Capitol.

The initial charges against Hexeth last month did not jeopardize his planned candidacy. After initial meetings on Capitol Hill last month, Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said he expected Hegest’s confirmation. But on Tuesday, after several other reports about Hegseth’s past, but before NBC News reported the drinking allegations on Fox News, Wicker sounded more cautious.

“I think some members have questions and we’ll be looking for answers,” Wicker said.

🚨 In the meantime… Hillsborough County, Florida, Sheriff Chad Chronister, Trump’s pick to serve as the next DEA administrator, dropped out of the discussion Tuesday. More →

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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