NBC News looked at several demographic groups and the counties with the largest percentages of a certain group living there — specifically, the roughly 300 counties in the top 10% of each — according to a recent census bureau survey that released estimates for 2018-2022. group. For example, Hinds County, Mississippi has one of the highest concentrations of black people in the country, while Alameda County, California, with 32% Asian Americans, has one of the highest concentrations of that racial group.
Experts point to voter turnout and dissatisfaction with the economy as the driving forces behind outcomes. However, shifts in voting patterns among certain demographic groups — which shouldn’t be considered central — are also visible, says Ken Kollman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
“The main story is Harris’s relatively low turnout in key Democratic seats compared to Biden in 2020,” Kollman said. “It’s a turnout story.”
Kollman drew attention to exit polls Shows change among Hispanic menand added Blacks may have voted more for Trump or it didn’t work out for Harris.
In both the Northeast and the West, Asian American voters swung toward Trump. with experts suggesting the economy is a priority for voters.
In California, Merced County, which has one of the nation’s highest Asian-American populations, supported Trump even as its voters threw their weight behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Merced’s 17-point shift to the right was largely due to fewer votes for Harris, who polled 28% less than Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump slightly improved his performance in 2020.
Riverside, another California state with a strong Asian American presence, went to the GOP in a photo-finish race decided by a few thousand votes.
However, the math at Riverside looked different than at Merced. Both candidates increased their total number of votes compared to the previous election period. But while Harris’s share of the vote increased by 21%, it did not match Trump’s nearly 50% advance.
On education, Trump improved his margins more than the national media in states with significant populations of both high school diploma holders and advanced degree holders.
However, the driving forces behind each tended to diverge. Trump’s vote held steady in states with strong representation of high school graduates, while Harris underperformed and lost more share in Biden’s 2020 coalition than any other education category.
But in states with the highest share of advanced degree holders, Trump actually gained votes while Harris lost votes.