Election Day is in the books: NBC News predicted Donald Trump won the presidential race On Kamala Harris and the Republicans They captured the SenateWhile the House is still up for grabs.
The results and exit poll data reveal why the election was full of twists and turns.
Here are five takeaways from Election Night 2024.
Latin Americans are swinging hard for Trump
It may be the biggest story of the race: Latino voters have swung to Trump by a staggering 25 percentage points compared to four years ago.
According to the results of the NBC News Exit Poll, Trump has won the support of 45% of Latino voters nationally, while Harris has 53%. That’s far better than Trump’s 33-point loss among Latinos in 2020, when he won 32% and Joe Biden’s 65%. And it could be the strongest GOP showing among Latinos in a presidential race since George W. Bush got 44% in 2004.
Nationally, Latinos made up 12% of the electorate, and Trump’s gains boosted Harris’s margins in many battleground states from Pennsylvania to Arizona that have made it difficult for Harris.
Trump’s gains were boosted by a massive swing among Latin American men, who supported him by 10 points over Harris.
The swings will force a reckoning among Democrats about why support is waning in a rapidly growing demographic. Party members were bracing for some losses with Hispanic voters, but not to the extent they suffered Tuesday.
The political gravity is reaching the Democrats in the Senate
Faced with an extremely difficult Senate map, Democrats were betting that battle-tested incumbents could once again defy the political tide with the help of millions of dollars in spending in hostile territory, particularly by allied groups.
It shouldn’t have been.
Republicans flipped Democratic-held seats in Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, and West Virginia to capture majorities, comfortably holding seats in red-leaning states like Texas, Florida and Nebraska.
The result will give Republicans a boost as they set the agenda Big items that Congress will have to deal with In 2025: the potential extension of expiring Trump tax cuts and Obamacare subsidies designed to reduce premiums for the middle class, as well as another extension of the debt ceiling and a new round of government funding.
Harris wins with white women and college graduates
The polls showed signs of a racial shift: Republicans gained a few points among non-white voters, while Democrats gained a few points among white voters, primarily women.
After Trump led white women by 11 points in 2020, Harris narrowed the gap to 5 points, according to the NBC News Exit Poll.
Biden led Trump by 9 points among white women with college degrees four years ago. Harris expanded that lead to 20 points, his most significant demographic victory among the historically Republican-leaning cohort.
The education divide also widened overall: Harris gained a few points among college graduates, while Trump gained a few points among voters without a college degree.
The gap between generations narrowed slightly, as Trump won among men under 30, winning 47% of them, compared to 49% for Harris.
Abortion was not a panacea for the Democrats
Certainly, the issue of abortion and Roe v. The protest against Wade helped Harris. An NBC News Exit Poll showed that abortion ranked as the third most important issue to voters, and Harris won those who cited it by 52 points.
However, abortion was not the decisive issue of the time, economy and democracy overcame it. Trump easily won over those who cited the economy as a top issue, while Harris easily won over those who said they prioritized the state of democracy.
Finally, economic concerns loomed large: Among the two-thirds of voters who rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” Trump led by 40 points.
The battle for the Chamber heads to overtime
Meanwhile, the outcome of the race for control of the narrowly divided House may not be immediately known.
That’s because the battle for the House majority is fought on a different battlefield than the battle for the White House and the Senate. Competitive House districts are disproportionately in white and well-educated suburbs, where Democrats largely hold onto their seats.
The House majority is likely to be decided by races in blue states — especially New York, where Democrats are poised to win, and California, where Republicans are defending five seats in tough territory. Still, it’s unclear whether Democrats will pick up enough seats to flip the House, as they’ve lost some seats elsewhere.
This leaves open the high-stakes question of the balance of power in Washington next year.