The 2024 election is on a knife edge, with polls predicting one of the closest elections in modern American history.
A wave of early voting will close at 6pm and 7pm on the East Coast, giving viewers valuable insight into whether the national mood is trending red or blue, including which messages are winning in contested areas and which way the suburbs are trending. and whether black voters turn out for Democrats.
The answers will give Americans an early look at key races for control of Congress and other down-ballot races, as well as insights into how Vice President Kamala Harris fares against former President Donald Trump.
Early voting will close at 6:00 p.m. local time in some parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The only potentially competitive congressional race in those states is Indiana’s 1st District, where Democratic Rep. Frank Mrwan is running for re-election. No party fringe groups have entered the race, but if GOP underdog Randy Niemeyer pulls off an upset, it could herald a red tide.
Both parties believe a wave is unlikely, so other districts will provide a better clue as to which way the wind is blowing in the competitive races for Congress and the presidential race between Harris and Trump.
Here are some early calls to watch:
Two counties in Virginia offer an overview
Two congressional districts in Virginia, where polls close at 7 a.m., may tell the story of the evening: the 2nd District, which surrounds Virginia Beach, and the 7th District, which includes Fredericksburg. Both districts can be valuable early indicators of how the election plays out in the suburbs, which are key to Democratic wins up and down the ballot.
Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans dominates the swing 2nd district. If he loses to Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal, GOP operatives will worry they’re in for a bad night. It could also mean that the Democrats’ messages of protecting abortion rights, protecting democracy and rejecting extremism—key themes of Kotter Smasal as well as Harris—resonate.
Kiggans is one of 16 House Republicans running for re-election in 2020 in districts won by President Joe Biden. According to an analysis by the NBC News Decision Desk, Biden won the seat by just 2 points in 2020. So this race may provide some early clues about the presidential race.
Virginia’s closely divided 7th District pits two political novices and Army veterans against each other: Democrat Eugene Windman and Republican Derrick Anderson, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., is vacating her seat to run for governor. Democrats are a slight favorite in the mix of urban and rural parts of Northern Virginia, where Biden won by 6 points four years ago. Vindman played a role The Ukrainian phone call that led to Trump’s first impeachment and his brother Alexander testified at that impeachment hearing. Anderson has been stubborn Using a fake family photo of him posing with a friend’s wife and three children to make himself look like a family man in campaign images.
“If Jen Kiggans loses in Virginia Beach, that would be a bummer. If [Eugene] Windman lost at Northern Virginia, Virginia-7, which would be disappointing. If these races go as they are chalked up, it reflects what we expect, it’s a really close House race,” said Kyle Condick, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster at the University of Virginia.
If either side wins both of these contests, they could have a strong night domestically.
North Carolina’s 1st District: The Test of the Black Vote
With polls closing at 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina, this district will provide a valuable early indicator of the Black vote, one of the most important questions of the 2024 election cycle. According to the closely divided District 1, 39% are Black Census dataand both parties are aggressively wooing voters there.
The rural district has become a tougher climb for Democrats since Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map late last year. Biden would win this reelection district in 2020 by just 1 point. And national Republicans fielded their preferred candidate, GOP Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, against first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis.
Crucial to carrying the district and a possible Harris victory is keeping the black electorate strong and preventing Trump from seriously faltering as he tries to steal a share of young black men. If he fails to accomplish both tasks, it quickly complicates his path to victory, as well as his hopes in a number of races on the Democratic ballot.
Are Trump’s tactics working? Or is Harris holding his own with black voters? Are they highly motivated to vote? Or are you coming up with lower numbers than usual? Results in this region may help answer these questions.
The answers will have profound implications across the country, including in North Carolina, one of seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential election.
Ohio’s 9th District: The Trump Country test
Republicans looking to make gains among blue-collar voters, key to Trump’s coalition, may get some early clues in Ohio’s 9th District, where voting closes at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982, faces Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin in the Toledo district, which Trump won by 3 points in 2020. Kaptur ran for re-election in 2022 against a deeply flawed challenger. but Republicans are optimistic Merrin can defeat him this year.
Kaptur is one of five Democrats running for re-election in districts won by Trump in 2020, and his race could provide an early indication of whether Democrats in similar districts can hold on. And Kaptur’s ability to outperform Harris will test voters’ appetite to “split” their tickets between the two parties, a dynamic that also has ramifications in many Senate races.