But it’s unclear whether the anti-tariff message will succeed in Pennsylvania. Incidentally, Casey, himself in a tough re-election fight, is running an ad boasting of his support for Trump’s tariffs during his first term in office — a message that makes Trump allies feel particularly confident about the former president’s position in the state.
“This is going to hit home, especially in Pennsylvania,” said state Rep. Josh Kyle, who chairs the state House Republican campaign committee.
And a top Trump adviser felt the state was set up well for the former president because of economic concerns. This person also pointed to the Casey ad as further evidence.
AdImpact tracking shows that while Trump’s ad blitz focused most on immigration, his economic message, blaming Harris for “skyrocketing” prices, was a key element of his on-air campaign.
“He’s obviously put a ton of attention and a ton of time and resources into it,” this person told Pennsylvania. “I think the message is right. I mean, honest to God, Harris broke it, Trump is going to fix it, I think that speaks almost specifically to Pennsylvania because of the economy. Their concern about the fossil fuel industry, particularly fracking.
Fight outside
Trump is the only Republican to represent Pennsylvania in a presidential election in the past three decades. No Republican has won the top-ticket race here since his 2016 victory.
But even among Democrats, there is little doubt that Trump will retain power in the state. After the assassination attempt in July, officials and operatives said his brand grew stronger here.
“You had a transformative, transformative situation,” Fetterman said of the assassination attempt, adding, “And then I would never tell everybody, deny what your eyes are showing. So walk around, look at the images and all that kind of stuff. .”
Trump has also benefited from a sense among supporters that it is no longer taboo to openly support him and that his coalition has become something different. Compared to 2016 and 2020.
That dynamic was on display at a panel in Lancaster featuring former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and TV psychologist Phil McGraw. Here, Republicans who describe themselves as “Make America Healthy Again” packed the sports field and “joined the railing against the impact.” seed oils’ and the rate of chronic diseases.
“I think the rebels like voting for Trump,” Kyle said. “I don’t feel that arrogance among Trump supporters anymore.”
More notably, the Trump campaign feels good about its chances in the state, because of positive voter registration changes and polling that is better than past elections.
“We are confident about everything,” said a Trump campaign official. “We’ve also passed 2022 and certainly 2020, so it’s not out of the question for us … there’s a very real and significant chance we could lose that.”
“I’m just not used to us ever being ahead in any survey, in any situation, and we still are,” the person added. “Talk to some of the older kids here and they get a lot of 2016 vibes.”
Democrats, however, are doing a lot to collect early voting data — especially since Democratic women and Democratic men are the two largest groups not voting in 2020. With Biden out of the race, Democrats can turn their excitement about Harris into a wave of volunteer and activist energy. His campaign said this resulted in his volunteers knocking on more than 800,000 doors in one day across the state on Saturday.
“No more 80-year-olds!” said Ryan Nash, 38, a Harris supporter who lives in Bucks County. “I’m not saying Biden doesn’t care, but he’s not going to be here anymore and it’s nice to have people.” [running for office] who have a future”.
Trump, meanwhile, is tailoring his primary game to less inclined voters, while much of the GOP’s research efforts turned over to a super PAC mainly funded by Elon Musk.