The close and uncertain battle for the White House has taken center stage this year. But Congress will play a big role in implementing (or blocking) the next president’s agenda — and the fight for the legislative branch is going down to the wire.
With Republicans currently in control of the House and Democrats controlling the Senate, both parties only need to pick up a handful of seats to flip each chamber.
Senate Republicans need to win two seats to win an outright majority, or only one if former President Donald Trump also wins the White House, because the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, Democrats need to win just four seats to take control of the chamber it is possible that they could win the House even if Vice President Kamala Harris loses the White House. Home control can also be uncertain for days, with several battleground locations in California being slow to count.
As the battle for Congress winds down, here are five things to watch:
1. Will there be ticket takers?
Both parties will rely on a shrinking pool of voters who split their tickets between the presidential race and down-ballot races.
In the Senate, two Democrats are fighting for re-election in states Trump will carry: Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Both have relied on ticket splitters in the past, using their personal brands and appeals to working-class voters.
But Republicans are betting that Tester and Brown in both states have moved too far to the right to defeat their Republican rivals, former Navy SEAL Tim Shea and businessman Bernie Moreno.
(West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is expected to easily win the Senate seat for Republicans in his state, where Democratic independent Sen. Joe Manchin has decided not to seek re-election.)
Ticket splitters could also play a big role in the battle for the House, where there are many competitive districts in non-presidential battleground states like New York and California. In 2020, there are 16 Republican candidates running for re-election in districts won by President Joe Biden. There are some signs, however, that Trump may exceed his 2020 margin in these districts, especially. In blue states like New YorkRepublicans will likely have to hold on to some Harris districts to gain a majority in the House. Five Democratic candidates are also running in districts Trump carried in 2020, making them GOP targets this year.
2. What effect can a presidential race have on the down-ballot?
The race for the White House is expected to have a significant impact on down-ballot races, especially in perennial battlegrounds.
Democrats are defending five Senate seats in the presidential race, including two open seats. Arizona and Michigan. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jackie Rosen of Nevada are also running for re-election.
Their fate may be closely related to the presidential race. Only one senator, Maine Republican Susan Collins, won re-election in 2020 because her state voted for the opposite party for president. In 2016, every state supported the same party for president and Senate. And this year, Harris and Biden have been the main subjects of congressional Republicans’ closing argument ads. (More on this below.)
Some candidates, like Casey in Pennsylvania and Republican Dave McCormick, they were trying to keep the balance Appearing in the election campaign with their party’s presidential candidates, while highlighting areas of disagreement, with the top of their respective tickets.
Few of these Senate candidates, like Rosen in Nevada They managed to escape before Harrisas their GOP rivals struggled to gain traction. But the Senate races in these battleground states have tightened significantly in recent days as presidential races in these states are flipped.
These battlegrounds are also home to competitive home races, such as Pennsylvania’s 7th District anchored in Allentown. presidential calland the 10th District in Harrisburg, where the former Freedom Caucus leader is on the defensive.
3. What issues will prevail?
Like presidential races, congressional races focus on issues that voters often list as important to their ballots: the economy, immigration, abortion and democracy. But in the days when the elections subside, there are both parties focused their closing arguments on two different issues.
In the most competitive House and Senate races, the Democratic candidates, more than two years ago in Roe v. After overturning Wade, they focused many of their closing ads on abortion, taking advantage of an issue that galvanized the party. Democrats also believe that ballot initiatives that enshrine abortion rights in some key battlegrounds could boost their candidacies. the voting showed a big difference between these measures and the Democratic candidates.
Immigration was the second-most talked about topic in Democratic closing ads last week, as Democrats sought to rebut GOP attacks on the issue, followed by health care, bipartisanship and taxes.
Immigration was the top Republican topic on the airwaves last week, often mentioned along with other issues such as transgender women who play women’s sports trying to paint Democrats as extremists. Other frequently mentioned topics include Harris, taxes, Biden and character, highlighting how Republicans are trying to nationalize these congressional races.
4. Can Republicans overcome Democrats’ massive financial advantage?
Republicans have long worried about the huge fundraising advantage Democrats have in House and Senate races. When Harris captured the ticket, Democrats saw a huge fundraising success filled the election campaigns with cash because it also broke fundraising records.
This allowed Democratic candidates to spread their positive messages and launch early attacks against GOP opponents. While Republicans get support from outside groups, those groups charge higher rates for ads, so their money doesn’t go as far.
According to AdImpact, nearly $1.6 billion has been spent on ads in Senate races since Labor Day, with Democrats spending $803 million and Republicans spending $758 million.
In each of the competitive Senate races, the Democratic candidate outscored his opponent in campaign ads. But Republicans have used big spending outside groups to lead in spending in some key races, such as in Ohio’s tight race, where Republicans spent $185 million to Democrats’ $143 million.
House races have also spent more than $1 billion on ads since Labor Day, with Democrats spending $615 million and Republicans spending $448 million, according to AdImpact. Democratic candidates and outside groups outpaced Republicans in 17 of the 20 House of Representatives observed as top ad spenders this fall.
5. Will there be any surprises?
House and Senate contests could also see some surprising results election night.
One of the most surprising developments on the Senate map has been the competitive race in Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborne is facing off against GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.
The race has seen some late spending in the Cornhusker State, as Republicans try to back Fisher as he tries to close the gap with Trump, who is expected to easily win the state.
Since Labor Day, Osborne has spent $9.8 million on ads, while Fisher has spent $3.5 million. And outside groups have increased their spending since Labor Day, with the independent PAC Retired Career Politicians spending more than $13 million.
Democrats continued to invest in Texas, where Democratic Sen. Colin Allred faces GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, and they are also eyeing a possible pickup in Florida, where former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mukarsel-Powell is challenging GOP Sen. Rick Scott. .
Allred has paid Cruz’s more than $50 million since Labor Day, leading the race in ad spending. 27 dollars million. Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic fringe group involved in Senate races, contributed $12.2 million in the race so far through his affiliated group WinSenate effort boosting Allred’s campaign by focusing ads on abortion.
In the Maryland Senate race, Republicans tried to shake off the upset by recruiting former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan to run for the open seat. Hogan made the race for the usually blue state an unusual contest, but Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks outspent Hogan in ad spending, pouring more than $10 million into airtime, while Hogan spent about $3.2 million.
Republicans have increased ad spending in Maryland since Labor Day, largely thanks to the pro-Hogan super PAC Maryland’s Future, which spent more than $25 million to boost Hogan on the airwaves.