Let’s be clear about one thing: polls cannot tell us who will win a presidential election. Or which party will control Congress. Or who will win a certain state.
It’s a race that close and uncertain and there have been polls in previous election cycles that is way off the mark.
These caveats aside, let’s not overlook a consistent plot line in the polls that defines the political forces shaping the election.
We’re not being told who will win – but we’ll know soon enough. What polls can no longer do is explain the forces that shaped this election or what the former president was like Donald Trump or vice president Kamala Harris could win.
The gender gap is huge
The The latest national NBC News poll It shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris winning women by 16 points — a 34-point gender gap, up from 30 points in 2019. October NBC News survey.
Now, not every poll reflects the same massive gender divide. But many do, and it could be one of the defining stories of this election. What’s more, the NBC News poll and others find an even more pronounced gender gap in education, with Harris winning white women without a college degree by a large margin, compared to Trump’s strength among men and women without a college degree.
The possible election of the first female president, the widespread backlash against Trump, Roe v. Wade’s downfall and more played a big role in Harris extending the gap to women. However, Trump and his intense appeals to men have been the big story of the election.
Democrats lost ground with Latino voters (as well as some Black voters).
While Harris and the Democrats gained ground among white women with college degrees, they lost ground among Latino voters, according to data this fall. NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll.
There has been some erosion among black voters, especially among Democrats young black men.
In a close election, the outcome may come down to how these trends play out with voters after months of analysis through polling. If the changes are concentrated in specific states, they could have a big say in how the Electoral College is shaken up.
Voters view Trump’s presidency more favorably than Biden’s
According to the latest NBC News poll, 41% approve of President Joe Biden’s job rating, while 58% disapprove. By comparison, in the same poll, Trump’s retrospective job rating was 48% favorable and 51% disapproving.
This 48% approval rating for Trump is higher than the NBC News poll conducted during his presidency.
This goes into the same dynamic as voters asking who would best represent change (more on that below). And that could be decisive, as some swing voters have said they are willing to overlook what they see as Trump’s character flaws in his desire to return to the economic conditions they remember in the pre-Covid years of his presidency.
Harris is more popular than Trump, but how popular?
Despite higher retrospective job approval for Trump, he remains a historically unpopular figure for a presidential candidate—42% favorable, 51% unfavorable among all registered voters (net rating -9). That’s not the -33 net rating he achieved in his first presidential run in 2016, but it’s not what successful presidential candidates typically enjoy.
By comparison, when Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, his popularity rose in an NBC News poll. But it has since come back down to Earth and is not far behind Trump. This would become an anomaly if Harris also wins.
According to a recent national NBC News poll, his approval rating is 43% favorable, 50% negative (-7 net). Other surveys show slightly higher popularity figures For Harris.
Harris leads abortion; Trump is ahead on inflation
According to the NBC News poll, the issues and presidential characteristics that Harris has a significant advantage on abortion were also consistent in the polls.
By comparison, with few exceptions, Trump is ahead of Harris on the economy and cost of living — though the lead is smaller than it was when President Joe Biden was in the Democratic race. Whether he’s running against Biden or Harris, Trump’s biggest issue advantage has long been border and immigration control.
While both candidates played to their strengths, as Trump said during the Harris debate, they did their best to play down those weaknesses. won’t sign a national abortion ban. While Biden never ran a TV ad about the border, Harris’ campaign began airing it a few weeks after clinching the Democratic ticket.
Who is the candidate for change in the race?
It may be the most important question in the race between the current vice president (Harris) and the former president (Trump), who are competing for voters who think the nation is on the wrong track. In a recent NBC News poll, 46% of voters said Harris better represents change, a slight advantage for Harris compared to 41% who believe Trump has changed.
But when asked what they were most worried about — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the approach from his first term as president — 41% said they were more worried about Harris following Biden’s path. According to the same poll, they are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his term.