These late-deciding voters could swing the election: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, we reconnected with some undecided voters from a recent NBC News poll to find out how we plan to make up their minds. Plus, “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker examines how every controversial comment and verbal spat in recent days could matter in a tight race.

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Recent undecided voters may influence the election. They are not wild about their choices.

Alex Seitz-Wald, Annemarie Bonner, Bridget Bowman and Faith Wardwell

Procrastination is usually unpleasant. But in a narrowly divided presidential election, voters who hold off until the last minute may have the power to decide the country’s future.

Both candidates and their foreign allies have spent millions trying to find and reach a relative handful of ardent, late-deciding and genuinely torn voters — precious needles in a giant haystack — still unsure how (or or) to cast their ballots. an American electorate that has little interest in being found by political campaigns and has major problems with one or both of the major parties.

The ranks of the aggressors are rapidly dwindling. In NBC News’ national poll for early Octoberonly 4% of registered voters said they did not want to choose between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. When NBC News contacted 40 of them again this week, 17 agreed to be interviewed and only five said they were still making up their minds.

Seven of those who decided after the poll three weeks ago said they voted for a third-party candidate or planned to write in under a different name. The two declined to share who they plan to vote for. One said he planned to vote for Trump, another said he was likely to vote for Harris, and another said he planned not to vote at all.

Late-decider voters crushed Trump in 2020 and 2016, both campaigns with some analysts and strategists crediting them for electing Trump eight years earlier.

How anyone could be undecided a week after a critical election may be hard to fathom for supporters of Trump or Harris. But these late decision makers have their reasons for dragging their feet.

Most are unhappy with their choices on the ballot and the state of the country in general. They feel conflicted about the cross-pressures on different policies and their impressions of candidates pulling them in opposite directions, especially Trump. Many people pay little attention to politics and say they don’t have time to research and think. Some say they are waiting until they are at the polls to make a decision.

What these voters say about how they plan to make their decision →

In a close presidential race, everything matters

By Kristen Welker

The past two weeks of the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been dominated by a series of controversies, gaffes and eyebrow-raising remarks.

Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly said Trump He praised Adolf Hitler while in office. We heard racist and rude comments at Trump’s rally Madison Square Garden. President Joe Biden appeared Appeal to Trump’s supporters As “garbage”, the White House quickly tried to clean up.

And on Thursday night, Trump he used violent rhetoric when talking about one of his most prominent Republican critics, former Rep. Liz Cheney.

So, which of these interpretations will count the most in deciding who wins or loses? Here’s a possible answer: all of the above.

In my years as a political journalist, I firmly believe that everything matters in a close race. That was certainly true in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy hit the East Coast just days before the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

That was true in 2016, when then-FBI Director James Comey’s meddling in the final 12 days of the Trump-Hillary Clinton race swung the polls.

And that was true in 2020, when the pandemic and the debate played a big role in the election between Trump and Joe Biden.

Here’s a side note: This Sunday, we’ll be publishing our latest national NBC News poll on “Meet the Press.” One set of questions the poll will ask is whether voters have switched between Trump and Harris over the past few weeks, and if so, why?

Stay tuned for results on Sunday.

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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