Mon. Nov 25th, 2024

See Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’ paths to 270 electoral votes — and build your own

By 37ci3 Nov1,2024



Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are seeking votes two months before the presidential race. In particular, they are looking for electoral votes and different paths to victory in key battleground states.

You can map them all yourself NBC News’ “Road to 270” toolinteractive electoral map showing the various routes, you guessed it, needed 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Create and share your own map, or browse the various scenarios compiled by NBC News experts Steve Kornacki and Kristen Welker, from the most likely victory paths to the more unusual or chaotic combinations.

Remember: In the seven key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, President Joe Biden’s biggest win in 2020 came in Michigan by less than 2.8 percentage points. Trump’s biggest (and only) victory was in North Carolina by less than 1.4 points. It didn’t separate these states much last time, and that could create some unusual trends and combinations this time around.

Use the route to 270 tool yourself here.

Harris’s Direct Route: Through the Great Lakes

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have voted the same in every election since 1992 — and it was for Democrats except once (2016). Even before Harris joined Biden, polls showed the Democratic ticket doing better than the Sun Belt battleground states in those three states. That’s partly because Trump’s electoral gains this year came from young and non-white (especially Hispanic) voters, who are less abundant in those states.

All Harris has to do is keep that trio (and avoid surprises elsewhere) and he’ll have the 270 electoral votes he needs.

Check out the script here.

Trump’s direct path: through the Sun Belt

For most of this year, Trump has been stronger in the northern battleground states of Georgia and Arizona. That’s partly due to his traction with nonwhite voters, especially young Latinos. Since entering the race, Harris has gained ground among those voters, potentially paving a Sun Belt path of his own.

However, it will take little time for Trump to sweep Georgia (he lost by less than 12,000 votes in 2020) and Arizona (the margin was just over 10,000 the last time). If he does (and there’s no hiccup in North Carolina), then all Trump needs is Wisconsin, Michigan, or any one of Pennsylvania. Of the three, the closest in 2020 was Wisconsin, where Trump lost by about 20,000 votes.

Check out the script here.

Electoral parity

We post the odds every four years, and here’s what it will take: Trump holds North Carolina and takes it to 268 electoral votes, leaving behind Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Meanwhile, Harris maintains the old “blue wall” trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which seems to put him at 270.

But then…

Omaha, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (which Trump carried in 2016 and then lost in 2020) is returning to the GOP fold, putting newly sworn-in Trump in a 269-269 tie with Harris in the House. Here, Trump would be the clear favorite because each state delegation would receive one vote, and Republicans currently control more delegations than Democrats.

Check out the script here.

More unusual scenarios: Can Trump win without North Carolina?

North Carolina is the only one of the seven key battleground states that Trump actually won in 2020 — but he did so by just 1 percentage point. The Trump campaign has increased its spending in North Carolina After Harris rose to the top of the ticket.

However, if Trump falters there and Harris becomes the first Democrat to win the state since 2008, Trump still has a path to victory.

That path would involve tearing down the “blue wall” and carrying all of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as Trump did in 2016. That means seven key battleground states won’t swing in the same direction since Biden won Pennsylvania. In 2020, Michigan and Wisconsin lost to North Carolina.

Then, even if Trump wins those three states, he would have to win either Arizona or Georgia to win without North Carolina.

Check out the script here.

More unusual scenarios: Can Harris win without Pennsylvania?

A significant development since Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket has been the party’s improved outlook in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. And that widened Democratic map gives Harris 270 electoral votes even if he loses the Great Lakes states.

Let’s say Trump wins both Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) – where the vote is close. Harris could still get more than 270 electoral votes by winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).

Or say Harris lost Nevada too. He could still make up for it by winning Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. Again, this scenario would rely on states swinging in opposite directions compared to 2020. But since they were so densely packed then, who’s to say that the populations didn’t change enough to create an unusual situation?

Check out this scenario here and more, including what a dream election night would look like for Trump or Harris.



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By 37ci3

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