Former President Donald Trump’s promises to win New York are more empty platitudes than evidence-based predictions. But the reality of the low turnout is murkier for Democrats amid signs that Trump and his party are making a stronger run against Vice President Kamala Harris in key areas of the state this year.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll It found Harris leading Trump 66% to 27% among voters in New York City — a healthy lead, but about 10 points less than President Joe Biden’s vote share in 2020, suggesting a slight shift in the liberal city. Two votes in the state of Siena they also found that Trump performed better than his 2020 vote share in New York state as a whole.
Meanwhile, the House Republican battleground state polls obtained by NBC News from six competitive New York congressional districts show Trump winning those districts by an average of 1 percentage point. That doesn’t mean Trump won all of those districts, but it’s a significant change from 2020, when Biden won similarly competitive districts by about 8 points on average.
The six districts surveyed by the National Republican Congressional Committee in August, September and October are the 1st and 4th on Long Island, the 17th, 18th and 19th in the Hudson Valley and the 22nd around Syracuse. Importantly, combining districts can even out the differences between them: For example, the 1st District is more pro-Trump than the 22nd District around Syracuse, which can shift the averages. And the Siena polls, which show moderate statewide movement for Trump compared to 2020 in New York, but more significant movement, demonstrate how different regions could react differently in this election.
But in general, it is included in the competitions most competitive around the stateand all but the 18th District are currently represented by Republicans in Congress.
Trump allies like Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York were quick to highlight the opportunity.
“Kamala Harris is underperforming every swing district in New York compared to where Joe Biden is in 2020,” Stefanik said in an interview. Trump’s “view of New York — and rightly so — is that Democratic-held states have been in decline for years and years because of failed, far-left policies, and that’s why you’ve seen the number of Republicans in New York politics since Trump ran in 2016.” you see an increasing tectonic change.
New York is solidly Democratic at the presidential level, although Trump improved there by about a point from 2016 to 2020. 37.7% of votes were collected. He held two rallies in the waning weeks of the election — one on Long Island and the other in downtown New York at Madison Square Garden. Democrats aren’t worried about the top of the ticket, but for races down the ballot — Democrats lost five competitive House races here in 2022 — this election is a chance to win back what was once theirs. Nationwide, it would be a net gain of just four seats Return control of the House to the Democrats.
The situation is only complicated by statewide politics and the woes of the state’s most prominent Democrats: New York Mayor Eric Adams’ latest indictment on corruption charges could spill over into the suburbs. Gov. Kathy Hochul’s approval rating showed her trailing in a recent poll in Siena even Trump’s numbers.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who represents the Brooklyn area, played down any concerns about state or national figures influencing key House races in an interview last month. He said the candidates for the House of Representatives will hold their own races.
“They have a vision for the future in terms of their success and delivering to the people they hope to represent,” Jeffries said.
But Republicans have their eyes on some local issues.
“Progressive state issues like bail reform and congestion pricing remain difficult for Democrats around New York,” said longtime New York Republican operative Matt Coleman, adding that “even if Hochul stops the implementation of the $15 surcharge to drive into Manhattan.” until later Election” remains an albatross.
Privately, some Democrats acknowledge that these issues could have a negative impact on tight races.
“Hochul took his eye off the ball,” said a Democratic operative who works in New York races, speaking anonymously to be more candid about one of the party’s key state leaders. “He has been negligent in taking the threats seriously, putting key House races and other progressive priorities at risk.”
A Hochul spokeswoman said the governor has worked “tirelessly” on get-out-the-vote efforts, including an “unprecedented coordinated campaign” working alongside DCCC efforts to flip House seats.
But while voting and demographic shifts may energize Republicans, Trump’s latest rally at Madison Square Garden, which featured racist and controversial comments about Puerto Ricans and other groups, shows the other side of the political coin: Trump’s unpredictability and potential negative impact on House Republicans . Less than 24 hours after the event, GOP Reps. Mike Lawler and Anthony D’Esposito came out to condemn the comments about Puerto Ricans.
“Obviously voter turnout will drive the bottom line,” said GOP strategist Coleman, “but the top of the ticket plays a role.”