A new focus group of voters planning to vote this fall but absent from the 2020 presidential election shows how both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are leaning on a core message to try to broaden the electorate. close race.
Among those voters, Harris has support because they believe she will protect abortion rights, and some have broader hopes that electing the first female president could send a strong message to the country. But it is aggravated by a number of important factors: a poor diagnosis of the American economy, a negative view of life during the administration of President Joe Biden and a lack of familiarity with it, which creates ambivalence and mistrust.
It is different for Trump, one of the most famous political figures on the planet. Some of these voters believe that his conduct during his tenure disqualified him in their eyes, and even some of his supporters fear that he will fight more against his enemies than in power in a second term.
Still, most of the 12 participants in two sessions—part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group, Syracuse University and research firms Busy and Sago — are leaning toward Trump for the oldest reason in politics: It’s the economy.
“I’m getting older and the economy is really starting to hit us hard. Just with inflation and costs and the labor market, it’s all starting to affect me and my family, so I feel like it’s more important this year,” said Ashley S., 34, of Clayton, North Carolina. not positive.
James B., 56, of Las Vegas, called the choice “simple.” He didn’t vote in 2020 because he moved, but plans to vote this year.
“My financial situation has decreased many times,” he said, adding that “it’s almost impossible to survive. I was better off when he was president.”
Rich Thau, President Busy“Most of these voters who stayed out of 2020 will vote for Trump this year because they believe he can make the economy of 2025 look like the low-inflation economy of 2019,” said Sessions, who moderated the session.
This was confirmed in national polls conducted by NBC News this year. In the last three polls, Trump led Harris 50-40% among those confirmed not voting in 2022 or 2020.
However, it should be noted that less than half of the respondents who took part in the survey expressed a high interest in the upcoming elections, raising questions about how many of them will vote.
All three voters who leaned Harris’ way on the panels were women, and they said they connected with him, in part, on an emotional level.
“I just feel like he feels my struggle,” said Vitena A., 50, of Atlanta.
Sabrina W., 32, of Beulaville, North Carolina, said she gravitated toward Harris because of policy proposals like a new loan for first-time homebuyers that could make it easier for her to buy a home.
“He seems like a caring person,” Sabrina said. “Hopefully, if she’s elected, she’ll be a really great role model for a female president.”
Nicole R., 40, of Lewisville, North Carolina, said she voted for Harris because “women’s reproductive rights” is her top issue. He described his vote as “less for him and more against Trump,” adding that he never seriously considered voting for Trump. She plans to vote this year as opposed to 2020 because “I have two young daughters and I feel like there’s a lot more at stake.”
Two focus group participants had recent changes of heart, including one that occurred during the discussion.
One, Sharman C., 36, of Atlanta, said her top issue is reproductive rights. But while he said he leaned toward Harris when he was vetted to join the focus group, he explained that he had a change of heart in recent days due to economic concerns.
“Now I’m leaning toward Trump because I see how my life and my family’s situation has deteriorated since the Biden-Harris administration. [abortion rights] I am interested in only one position of Harris. Therefore, I think that Trump will be a stronger candidate,” he said.
“I think my priorities are more in my home, in my family than what is happening in general. It may be a selfish decision, but there are other issues where I feel he is very liberal,” Sharman said.
Margaret Talev, director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship in Washington, said: “One of the recurring themes among these voters was the idea that Vice President Harris had either not demonstrated that he could wield political power, or that other people believed him. a female president will not have the same confidence as a male president that she will not be able to govern essentially like Trump, and it will not affect national security or her ability to get anything done.”
Zaire H., 36, of Detroit, said during the focus group that he “leaned more toward Harris,” with fond memories of his economic situation during the Trump administration outweighing Harris’ support for reproductive rights.
But when asked how Trump’s pledge not to support the abortion ban affected his vote, he replied: “Yeah, that’s good enough for me. let’s go.”
“It’s going to completely change my sound,” he said. “I would be willing to vote for Trump,” she said, adding that she wouldn’t be concerned if women in other states wouldn’t be able to get an abortion because “I don’t live in those states.”
Another issue for Harris is how these voters perceive the Biden administration compared to their relative nostalgia for the Trump years.
They used words like “prosperous,” “good” and “normal” to describe life in America under Trump, and words like “struggle,” “difficult” and “uneasy” to describe life under the Biden administration.
But even among those inclined to vote for him, concerns remain about Trump’s personality and how he will lead the country.
“If he were to be elected, I would fear that he would fight and fight in the courts rather than be president all over Twitter,” he said. Between Trump and a third-party candidate.
After these voters participated in the highest-turnout election in modern history in 2020, there are questions about whether they will actually vote this year.
Ashley S. said that while the “likelihood” of her voting for Trump continues to increase, “the problem is that I’m still going to vote.”
Sharman C., undecided but moving from leaning more toward Harris to Trump, estimated he had a 70% chance of voting, but a 30% chance he didn’t. He is torn between the fear of choosing the wrong candidate and the “guilt” he feels after sitting in 2020.
“There are some fears that I have been subjected to. “I’m very concerned about the agenda of Project 2025 and I feel that if I don’t want to make the wrong decision, maybe I should put it aside – that’s why I didn’t take part in the last election,” he said.