WASHINGTON — As Speaker Mike Johnson celebrates one year in the job on Friday, he is fighting hard to preserve the House Republicans’ razor-thin majority and the speakership.
Multiple House Republicans said they believe the Louisiana Republican, who rose from relative obscurity to the top of the conference last year, can win over his critics and win the vote for speaker for two more years. But only if the GOP manages to regain control of the House in the November elections.
If Republicans expand their majority, Johnson’s chances will improve significantly. Lawmakers typically reward leaders who put in significant miles on the campaign trail and cash in, like Johnson.
But if Democrats win on Nov. 5, four GOP lawmakers, including close allies of Johnson, said they were confident the speaker would step down as leader.
“If we’re in the minority, Johnson has no chance of being the leader,” said a House Republican who campaigned with Johnson, one of several lawmakers who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
Johnson would not try to become minority leader, as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., did when the second GOP colleague who campaigned with Johnson did when Democrats were ousted in the tea party wave in 2010. to fall
Johnson could also be impeached if House Republicans win in November, but their fragile majority is shrinking, with at least two conservatives vowing not to vote for him and others on the fence.
If Johnson doesn’t show up, it could set off a bitter battle for minority leader between two of his top lieutenants and most trusted advisers. political mentors Johnson’s: Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.
Johnson will not take any questions about what he will do in the minority and has not discussed the possibility with lawmakers or aides.
“Honestly, I haven’t considered it because I’m 100% focused on the job at hand and I really believe we’re going to win. I’m going to be the speaker of the House,” Johnson said in a recent sit-down interview with NBC News at a campaign stop in Hellertown, Pennsylvania. “I didn’t give a moment’s thought to the other alternative.”
Whether or not Johnson remains in the minority, it will be a “dogfight” for the top job, one Republican official said, fresh from the party’s last two bitter and contentious races for speaker.
A third House GOP lawmaker added that if Republicans lose the House and Trump loses the White House, “it will be a free-for-all.”
Others on the current leadership team prefer to stay out of the fray: Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., intends to keep his current No. 3 vote-counting post, according to one source. Position number 2 in the minority.
Meanwhile, GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, RN.Y., is stepping outside of the congressional leadership and instead considering a Cabinet position in a potential Donald Trump administration, according to two sources familiar with conversations between Stefanik and the Trump teams.
“He travels the country on her behalf, donates millions of dollars to the team and is the best national surrogate,” said one GOP lawmaker who has been following Stefanik’s actions. “Trump’s team is very aligned with him.”
Scalise vs. Jordan?
Both Scalise and Jordan are setting the stage for whatever comes next. They travel the country, raising funds for and appearing with GOP candidates whose votes they will need for any future proposals. Scalise, who campaigned in the Pacific Northwest this week, raised money for 210 candidates this cycle, 160 of them events, his team said. During his ten years in office, Scalise gave more than $70 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the official campaign arm of the GOP.
Although Scalise has campaigned for his colleagues for years, Jordan’s latest efforts have raised eyebrows in Washington. Jordan would previously campaign to elect like-minded conservative rebels as leader of the splinter Freedom Caucus. But this cycle, he ran afoul of Republicans across the political spectrum as he sought to broaden his support in the 220-member conference.
According to a source with direct knowledge of Jordan’s operations, Jordan has endorsed more than 190 Republican colleagues and candidates this cycle, including some who ran against him for speaker last year. He gave $2.5 million to the NRCC to retain the majority, the source added.
Last weekend, Johnson invited Jordan and others to campaign with him in Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota. It covered events for the three-state swing, including battleground candidates Rep. John James and a military veteran Tom Barrettjudge Joe McGraw, both from Michigan and Illinois.
“Jordan works hard for a diverse group in our conference,” said one House Republican who spent time on the campaign trail with Jordan.
Jordan had no comment when asked by NBC News if he was running for the leadership next month. Questions have swirled about Scalise’s health since he was diagnosed with a type of blood cancer last year. But he’s now in remission and told NBC News that he’s on the mend after recently undergoing hip replacement surgery. Scalise, the longtime No. 2 GOP leader, also has not publicly announced what he will run for in the minority.
Both Scalise and Jordan have their detractors. Both men have failed since Kevin McCarthy was ousted last year to win the votes needed to become speaker. Jordan was rejected twice and Emmer was also denied the gavel, paving the way for Johnson — then a little-known vice chairman of the GOP Conference and No. 6 in the leadership — to ascend to the speakership.
But unlike the 218 votes needed to win the speakership, a lower threshold — a mere majority of all House Republicans — is needed to win the minority leader post. This voting takes place in a closed secret ballot and is sometimes unpredictable.
Scalise and Jordan each have a personal friendship with Johnson. Scalise, a Louisiana native, mentored Johnson during his eight years in Congress, and the two men remain close. Jordan is also a mentor and has been on vacation with Johnson – they He visited Israel Together with their spouses in 2020.
Perhaps the biggest wild card in the leadership sweepstakes is former President Donald Trump. While both Scalise and Jordan are allies of Trump, Jordan has been one of the former president’s top defenders on Capitol Hill for years, speaking out against two of Trump’s impeachments and leading a new special committee this Congress to fight what Trump has said.arming the government” against conservatives. Trump could be a difference-maker if he runs in a contested race.
Johnson’s uphill climb
Even if House Republicans win, nothing is certain for Johnson. In his first year, Johnson demonstrated his deal-making ability: He worked with Democrats on three separate occasions. prevent a government shutdownPassed critical military aid to Ukraine and Israel and prevented one loss contested supervisory powersKnown as Section 702 of the FISA.
But in the process, he angered conservatives.
“He’s so burned,” said Rep. Goodwill, who voted against the latest stopgap bill to avert a shutdown and has already vowed to oppose Johnson. Thomas Massie, R-Ky. “I think it’s going to take a major resuscitation from Trump or something to get him to the finish line.”
Another conservative hardliner, Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., said he did not know if he would support Johnson again.
And Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who failed He campaigned to unseat Johnson — whom he described as a “one-party” speaker — vowed never to vote for him.
Johnson is working hard to appease some of these far-rights. In June, he awarded former Freedom Caucus chairman Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., a coveted spot on the Intelligence Committee. This month, Johnson traveled to Perry County to campaign and raise money for the congressman. became a top Democratic target.
But when asked if he would vote for Johnson for speaker, Perry declined, adding that he wants to see spending cuts and regulatory changes before the administration commits to endorsing a nominee.
“I drive a hard bargain,” Perry said in an interview. “I’m friends with Mike. I think he’s doing a good job. I think he has a tough job. But you know that we still have to do our job for our voters and leaders. You know, I’m not working for Mike Johnson, I’m working for the people of the 10th District.”
There is some frustration with Johnson and his last-minute promotion in the leadership ranks. For example, Johnson offered some senior lawmakers unsolicited advice on messaging techniques that rubbed them the wrong way, according to a source who witnessed a private interaction on the campaign trail this month.
Johnson was close to Trump throughout the election campaign, talking to him regularly and repeatedly telling him that he could be “the most effective president of the modern era.” But one GOP lawmaker said that if Trump threw a curveball by saying he wanted someone else to be speaker, “it would create all kinds of problems.”
“Flaming Chainsaw Juggle”
Others praised Johnson, who suddenly found himself in the spotlight last year after a small far-right insurgent group joined with Democrats to end McCarthy’s speech. Sen. David Valadao, D-Calif., predicted Johnson could stay on as speaker if the GOP holds the majority.
“I think he hit a good shot. Obviously, there are people in the supermajority who are probably playing some games with the speakership,” Valadao said. “I think the majority of members are happy with what he’s doing. I mean, he’s got the toughest job in Washington right now and he’s trying to get it done. “.
Acting interim speaker between McCarthy and Johnson is retired Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, RN.C. added: “He learned to swim in this role with the bright lights very well. It is very difficult and he has proven himself capable and is learning on the job.
Wisconsin GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who got into a heated argument on the House floor with several conservatives seeking to unseat Johnson in April, defended the speaker in a text to NBC News.
“Mike has been juggling the flaming chains ever since he was elected speaker and has helped move this conference forward,” Van Orden said.
Unlike a chaotic 118th Congress, Johnson predicted that Republicans would be able to sweep the election and govern for another term.
“If we have a bicameral approach, with Republicans in both chambers working together to develop and implement this agenda, and President Trump leading the way, I think you’re going to have less division in the ranks on our side,” he said. NBC News.
“I think the management will be very easy in January,” said the speaker.