Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, we’re sharing our latest survey of how Gen Z voters are viewing the presidential race in recent days. Plus, national political reporter Ben Kamisar looks at the explosion in foreign spending this election cycle. And senior political reporter Jonathan Allen explains what the location of Kamala Harris’ closing argument revealed.
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Gen Z gender gap: Women dominate for Harris, men split
By Stephanie Perry, Marc Trussler and Mara Haeger
According to the latest data, half of registered voters under the age of 30 plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, while a third are for former President Donald Trump. Follow the NBC News Generation Z Survey powered by SurveyMonkey.
Among young voters who say they will vote in November’s presidential election, Harris leads by 20 points, 56% to 36%. With some younger voters leaning toward other candidates on the ballot besides Harris and Trump, it’s just shy of the 24-point margin (60%-36%) President Joe Biden held in 2020 among voters under 30, according to an NBC News exit poll . .
Within Gen Z, there are marked differences between the different groups – and the gender gap is particularly significant.
Young women said they would vote for Harris over Trump by a margin of 33 points. The junior men were mostly even, with Harris holding a 2-point lead.
More men (46%) than women (30%) say Trump has the right personality to be president. Reflecting this, women (65%) are more likely than men (55%) to say Harris has the right personality.
Gender differences jumped on the issues young voters said were most important to their vote. While inflation and the cost of living were ranked as the most important issues among both men (35%) and women (29%), 13% of women chose abortion, compared to 4% of men. Among men, 13% cited threats to democracy as the most important issue, compared to 9% of women.
There were also large gender differences in the role of abortion policy in candidate selection. Less than half of young women (48%) said they would only vote for a candidate who shared their views on abortion, compared to 36% of men.
📊More numbers: A National CNBC poll Among all registered voters, it shows Trump at 48% and Harris at 46%, a 2-point difference, which is within the margin of error.
Foreign spending in the presidential race exceeded 1 billion dollars, setting a new record
By Ben Kamisar
An NBC News analysis found that foreign groups spent a staggering $1.1 billion on the presidential race less than two weeks before Election Day, surpassing the record set during the 2020 election.
This figure includes spending during the primary and general election campaigns by super-NGOs and other groups not directly affiliated with candidate campaigns and party committees.
To put the current level of foreign spending into perspective, the figure of more than $1 billion is dwarfed gross domestic product of more than a dozen countries.
The frenzied pace is already ahead of four years ago, with independent spending as of Oct. 24 exceeding $910 million. In total, more than $1 billion was spent on the 2020 presidential election.
After an unprecedented summer shakeup at the top of the Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris, just months away from running for president, has been the subject more than two-thirds of the total foreign expenditure of this period.
What does the location of Harris’s closing argument reveal?
By Jonathan Allen
No matter what Kamala Harris says in her closing argument to the nation on Tuesday, she will send the message that Donald Trump is simply unfit for the office they both seek.
His chosen venue, the Ellipse at the foot of the White House, is where Trump rallied supporters on January 6, 2021, and called for a march on the Capitol. In the small dining room next to the Oval Office, he watched silently as a mob stormed the Capitol to overturn his defeat.
Since then, Democrats have wrestled with the tension between their core belief that voters should reject Trump because they see him as an existential threat to the republic, and polls show many voters focus on more touchy issues like abortion, inflation and immigration.
Some voters say they don’t know enough about what Harris will do on key policy issues. It’s a double-edged sword because it means he’s less than two weeks away from Election Day, but there’s room to do so, at least in theory. And yet it’s unclear what he can do to satisfy those voters.
Harris is likely to make the latest move, aiming to cross the “t’s” and dot the “i’s” on his agenda, a push to convert late-night voters with a positive message about his policy plans. But with his choice of location, he is clearly trying to galvanize his base and turn voters against Trump.
As his popularity soared in the weeks after taking the reins of the Democratic Party, Harris distanced himself from the democracy argument that was central to Joe Biden’s platform. Now it’s back to him as he goes neck and neck with Trump.
If he wins, the speech at the Ellipse will surely hold a special place in the lore of Harris’ improbable and historic triumph when he rose to the occasion to defend democracy. If he loses, it could be seen as the last missed opportunity to focus on issues that directly affect voters’ daily lives.
🕘 Closing time: Harris is also enlisting some of the Democratic Party’s biggest stars to help him make his closing argument. Monica Alba, Carol E. Lee and Yamiche Alcindor report Harris is set to meet with former President Barack Obama in Georgia on Thursday and former first lady Michelle Obama in Michigan on Saturday.
But Harris, a popular Democrat, is still unlisted Hillary Clinton. The decision underscores Harris’ lack of consideration for voters about her candidacy’s history-making potential, a stark contrast to Clinton’s approach in the 2016 campaign. Monica Alba, Yamiche Alcindor and Gary Grumbach write.
As for Trump, his campaign has focused on immigration, inflation and foreign policy in the final days of the race. But as Jonathan Allen and Catherine Doyle noteTrump himself is ramping up his personal attacks on Harris.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🔵 Follow Harris: Harris called Trump a “fascist” at a CNN town hall in Pennsylvania as he made more noise to voters that he was unfit for office. More →
- 🔴 Follow Trump: As Trump’s team seeks to narrow the gender gap, many are pushing to pass similar measures in city halls run by women. More →
- 🔴 Follow Trump, continued: Trump said if elected he would fire special counsel Jack Smith “within two seconds” after being sworn in. More →
- 👀 2025 vision: Harris’ team is quietly considering potential attorney general candidates if he wins. More →
- 🧀 WOW: Waukesha, Wisconsin Mayor Shawn Reilly, a former Republican, has announced his support for Harris. The city is part of the suburban WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington) that have long been GOP strongholds around Milwaukee, but Democrats have made some recent gains. More →
- 🗳️ Keys to the Keystone State: The NBC News Decision Desk explains how Democrats’ voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania is being eroded and what it means for the election. More →
- 🎰 Raise the ante: A GOP super PAC is hitting the airwaves in the Nevada Senate race, the group’s first spending spree in a race where the party’s Senate candidate has trailed Trump in recent polls. More →
- 🤠 Texas hold ’em: And in Texas, a Democratic super PAC is starting to buy TV ads to bolster last-minute support for Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in his race against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. More →
- 📺 On air: Future Forward, the Democratic super PAC backing Harris, has quietly provided millions of dollars in Spanish-language ads aimed at Latino voters. More →
- 🎤 Cowboy Carter: Beyoncé will appear with Harris at a campaign event in Houston on Friday and is expected to speak. More →
- 🏈 Steel Curtain: Former Pittsburgh Steelers players line up on opposite sides of the primary battleground between Harris and Trump. More →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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